Climate adaptation for sustainable development

With the impacts of climate change disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable nations and threatening hard-earned development progress, climate adaptation will be crucial to safeguard and contribute to sustainable development. But adapting to the impacts of climate change is challenging in the face of future uncertainties and the risk for wrong decisions to exacerbate development or climate challenges. Whilst an increasing body of research has addressed the need for improved planning of climate adaptation, there remains a gap in aligning such adaptation planning with sustainable development and the global agendas, in particular the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. This thesis addresses this gap by investigating the complex links between sustainable development targets and climate change impacts to better inform climate adaptation planning for sustainable development. A conceptual framework is first developed to better understand the pathways of how sustainable development targets are linked to the impacts of climate change. The conceptual framework highlights the essential role of sectors of society, the economy, and the environment in mediating between achievement of SDG targets and impacts of climate change. This conceptual framework is operationalised through the development of two complementary national-scale methodologies: the first methodology holistically assesses where and how impacts of climate change affect sustainable development targets, whilst the second methodology evaluates how much and what type of adaptation can safeguard and contribute to sustainable development. By spatially translating sustainable development targets and indicators at the level of a nation's sectors and assets, these two methodologies integrate the largely siloed fields of sustainable development and climate change impacts research to inform a more coordinated approach to climate adaptation planning for sustainable development. Application of the first methodology to the small island of Saint Lucia reveals the impacts of climate change across 22 sectors and half of the nation's built and natural assets, and shows how these impacts interact and propagate to influence 89% of SDG targets. The participatory methods and the cross-sectoral workshops as part of this application helped Saint Lucia add specificity and spatial granularity to 52 adaptation options under its National Adaptation Plan. The second methodology, applied in Ghana, grounds climate adaptation planning in a national sustainable development vision. Using an SDG-risk indicator set, Ghana's climate adaptation needs in the energy and transport sector are evaluated in terms of safeguarding existing SDG target progress. A feasible adaptation strategy to meet these needs is developed through a multi-stakeholder partnership, showing how a combination of built and nature-based adaptation options can deliver up to 116 SDG target co-benefits. Collectively, the contributions in this thesis provide valuable insights to conceptualise, assess, and evaluate climate adaptation in the context of the SDGs and the Paris Agreement. These contributions transcend traditional economic adaptation assessments by placing the global agendas at the heart of the adaptation planning process. As more nations develop and revise their adaptation commitments under the Paris Agreement, the transferable approaches and accompanying decision-support tools developed in this thesis can help ensure adaptation contributes to, rather than detracts from, sustainable development.</p

Delivering on the Sustainable Development Goals through long-term infrastructure planning

Through the provision of a range of essential services, infrastructure systems profoundly influence development. At a time of increasing global investment in infrastructure, there is a need to support practitioners in making informed choices in order to achieve progress toward sustainable development objectives. Using the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (the SDGs) as a framework to structure infrastructure decision-making and trade-offs, this analysis develops a performance indicator system that assesses the potential development implications of a portfolio of infrastructure investments and policies. We develop metrics to assess the performance of infrastructure-linked targets. We then embed these metrics in a systems model that allows for the quantification of future infrastructure needs and the assessment of portfolios of infrastructure investments and policies that contribute to meeting these needs. These methods are applied to the small-island country of Curaçao, demonstrating the potential for meeting the SDGs through adoption of strategies of cross-sectoral infrastructure investments and policies in the energy, water, wastewater and solid waste sectors. In the face of growing demands for infrastructure services, we find that inaction with regard to infrastructure supply and demand will lead to a 28% decrease in average SDG achievement across these targets by 2030. We assemble a portfolio of interventions that provide infrastructure services across these four sectors that enable achievement of 19 SDG targets directly linked to infrastructure. These interventions imply scaling up of infrastructure where there are gaps in service provision, ranging from an overall 10% increase in the water sector to a 368% increase in waste sector infrastructure from current capacities by 2030. Achieving the SDGs does not necessarily imply more infrastructure: in the energy sector the sustainable policy implies demand reductions of 32% from current levels. Nearly 50% of the assessed targets require intervention in more than one sector, emphasising the interdependent nature of the infrastructure system. The analysis addresses future uncertainties around the key drivers of residential population and tourism growth on the island by modelling infrastructure needs for alternate scenario projections. Averaged across the four sectors, these needs range from −14% (low) to +5% (high) in relation to the moderate projection. The analysis provides the first step towards a practical means of utilising infrastructure to deliver the SDGs, using quantitative indicators to underpin effective decision-making

Participatory planning of the future of waste management in small island developing states to deliver on the Sustainable Development Goals

Waste management is particularly challenging for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) due to their high per-capita infrastructure costs, remoteness, narrow resource bases and high dependence on tourism. The lack of integrated planning frameworks considering these SIDS-characteristics has stalled progress on sustainable waste management. To address this challenge, this paper proposes an integrated methodology for long-term waste management planning to deliver on the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in SIDS. This explicitly combines multi-level participatory SDG visioning and back-casting with waste infrastructure modelling. This methodological development is piloted using a national-scale demonstration on Curacao. Three island-specific waste management portfolios (Inaction, Circular Economy, Technology-led), developed through stakeholder back-casting, are modelled for SDG delivery using a national accounting model under different socio-economic futures. The results highlight the importance of waste prevention and material re-use strategies within islands that engage local populations. Evidence-based identification and evaluation of waste management strategies, grounded in participatory processes, can itself contribute to SDG delivery

Participatory planning of the future of waste management in small island developing states to deliver on the Sustainable Development Goals

Waste management is particularly challenging for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) due to their high per-capita infrastructure costs, remoteness, narrow resource bases and high dependence on tourism. The lack of integrated planning frameworks considering these SIDS-characteristics has stalled progress on sustainable waste management. To address this challenge, this paper proposes an integrated methodology for long-term waste management planning to deliver on the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in SIDS. This explicitly combines multi-level participatory SDG visioning and back-casting with waste infrastructure modelling. This methodological development is piloted using a national-scale demonstration on Curacao. Three island-specific waste management portfolios (Inaction, Circular Economy, Technology-led), developed through stakeholder back-casting, are modelled for SDG delivery using a national accounting model under different socio-economic futures. The results highlight the importance of waste prevention and material re-use strategies within islands that engage local populations. Evidence-based identification and evaluation of waste management strategies, grounded in participatory processes, can itself contribute to SDG delivery