Statistical modelling of summary values leads to accurate Approximate Bayesian Computations

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods rely on asymptotic arguments, implying that parameter inference can be systematically biased even when sufficient statistics are available. We propose to construct the ABC accept/reject step from decision theoretic arguments on a suitable auxiliary space. This framework, referred to as ABC*, fully specifies which test statistics to use, how to combine them, how to set the tolerances and how long to simulate in order to obtain accuracy properties on the auxiliary space. Akin to maximum-likelihood indirect inference, regularity conditions establish when the ABC* approximation to the posterior density is accurate on the original parameter space in terms of the Kullback-Leibler divergence and the maximum a posteriori point estimate. Fundamentally, escaping asymptotic arguments requires knowledge of the distribution of test statistics, which we obtain through modelling the distribution of summary values, data points on a summary level. Synthetic examples and an application to time series data of influenza A (H3N2) infections in the Netherlands illustrate ABC* in action.Comment: Videos can be played with Acrobat Reader. Manuscript under review and not accepte

The Sacred as Secular: State Control and Mosques Neutrality in Post-Revolutionary Tunisia

AbstractHow are the characteristics of state–religion relations defined? The following paper provides a critical response to the competition perspective in studies on secularization, secularism, and mobilized religion. It argues that actors differ in how religion and state should relate to public life, not the extent that they should be integral or separate from each other. This paper substantiates its argument by exploring how in Tunisia––in a context of revolutionary, social and political instability––a variety of positions were articulated regarding the preferred position of Islam in relation to, first, national identity and, second, state authority. This is done in direct reference to one particular contentious issue: State control over mosques in name of ensuring the partisan neutrality of religious spaces in the country. This paper builds on multiple fieldwork visits to Tunisia and specifically Sfax, during which 32 individuals were interviewed. In addition, this paper builds on hundreds of primary and secondary sources.None

Logical inference approach to relativistic quantum mechanics: derivation of the Klein-Gordon equation

The logical inference approach to quantum theory, proposed earlier [Ann. Phys. 347 (2014) 45-73], is considered in a relativistic setting. It is shown that the Klein-Gordon equation for a massive, charged, and spinless particle derives from the combination of the requirements that the space-time data collected by probing the particle is obtained from the most robust experiment and that on average, the classical relativistic equation of motion of a particle holds

Between rebellion and uprising intersecting networks and discursive strategies in rebel controlled Syria

In the article I explore how, at the individual level, participation in multiple networks opens up questions regarding the classification of social activism. The central contention thereby is that as mobilization networks increasingly intersect, explicit discursive designations of activism (being ‘political’ or ‘nonpolitical, social’) by individual activists becomes more prevalent. I substantiate this argument with an in-depth exploration of the Syrian uprising. I show that as two distinct networks─one that emerged around nonviolent activism, another that emerged around a violent uprising─increasingly intersected, activists began to use specific discursive strategies. On the one side, a strategy emerged that emphasized the nonpolitical nature of mobilization, thereby distancing activism discursively from intersecting networks. On the other side, a strategy emerged of politicizing collective identities, thereby bridging discursively various mobilization networks. The article thereby adds to existing studies on the intersection between network structure and individual activism. The analysis builds on more than a hundred primary sources from various rebel groups and relevant local actors in addition to thirty interviews with relevant players among activist, rebel and public services organizations.Non