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Liquidity Effects and Precautionary Saving in The Czech Republic

Since the break up of the Czech-Slovak Federation on 31 December 1992, the Czech Republic has been at the forefront of the transition to a market economy. Key aims of the Czech Republic, and many other former centrally planned economies, are low inflation and a stable exchange rate, particularly for those who ultimately wish to enter the European Union (EU). The aggregate consumption function has been a key component of macro-models since Keynes and is especially important for growth in a transitional economy. Key economic variables will be used to explain the consumption function, e.g. real houshold income, interest rates on credit, inflation and real wealth. We expect a positive relationship between real consumption and the level of real income and wealth, with a negative relationship between the consumption and the rate of interest and inflation. The estimation approach we use is an error correction model. Given the nature of the Czech financial markets and institutions it is likely that consumption will not immediately reach the long-run equilibrium. Therefore the long-run relationship and short-run interactions which is the basis of the error correction model approach would appear to be the appropriate choice for an emerging economy. The data used in the study is monthly and runs from January 1993 to April 1995. All the required data are taken from the CNB, Financial Statistics Report. Given that the Czech Republic has been hit by a number of different shocks over the relatively short transition period, we will estimate the empirically based consumption functions starting from 1993. Due to the paucity of data we initially include only standard variables associated with the consumption function; real disposable income, interest rates and inflation. We do however test a number of variants, including using an alternative measure of income, namely real wage income. We also include the unemployment rate which would proxy liquidity constraints. Also if there is an increase in the probability of unemployment current liquidity, future liquidity or uncertainty - or all three - may lead to a reduction in current consumption. Although we are faced with a limited data set we do however find a number of interesting results. Of particular note for a transition economy, such as the Czech Republic, is the long-run relationship between real consumption and wage income, interest rates, inflation and the rate of unemployment. We take the change in unemployment to reflect changes in liquidity constraints and the level of unemployment to reflect precautionary saving. The results imply that these effects are present and statistically significant both in the short and long-run. Our results also indicate that the long-run income elasticity is affected by the inclusion of the unemployment term.

Risk Premia and Long Rates in Ireland

Using a number of long-term maturities and monthly data, 1989-1997, we provide a number of tests of the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure. The main insight in this paper is the use of the excess holding period return to provide a proxy for a possible time varying term premium. Nearly all previous studies using the VAR methodology have used only the spread and the change in (short) rates and they have ignored the excess holding period return. Our results are consistent with recent evidence for the UK (Cuthbertson and Nitzsche, 1998), in that we cannot reject the EH. However we do reject the presence of a time varying risk premia.

The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: The Case of Ireland

Using Irish money market rates (spot rates) with a term to maturity of 1, 3, and 6 months and monthly data, 1984-1997, we provide a number of tests of the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure. The paper draws on co-integration techniques and the methodological approach of Campbell and Shiller (1987, 1991). On balance our results lend support to the EH and are broadly consistent with the recent findings for the UK, but are in sharp contrast to those for the US. It is encouraging that our results are consistent with those of recent studies at the short end of the maturity spectrum for the UK, (e.g. Cuthbertson, 1996).

Money Demand in the Czech Republic since Transition

Since the break up of the Czech-Slovak Federation on 31 December 1992, the Czech Republic has been at the forefront of the transition to a market economy. Key aims of the Czech Republic, and many other former centrally planned economies (FCPE), is low inflation and a stable exchange rate, particularly for those who ultimately wish to enter the European Union (EU). Similar to the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), the Czech National Bank (CNB) adopts some form monetary targeting to control domestic inflation. One of the key elements (along with other economic indicators) is a stable demand for money function, which may include real household income, interest rates, and inflation. We use three measures of money in the money demand estimation, currency in circulation (=M0), M0 plus demand deposits (=M1), and M1 plus quasi money (=M2). We also specifically focus on investigating the extent of currency substitution in the Czech Republic. Given the nature of a transitional economy and following some recent evidence for transition economies, we included a proxy for currency substitution. We take the ‘ conventional ‘ domestic money demand equation and augment it with the return from holding foreign bonds - this is often referred to as the ‘portfolio balance effect‘. We also include the expected change in the exchange rate which is referred to as currency substitution. We define the foreign country to be either the US or Germany. Given the nature of a transitional economy, the gradual openness of the market and the developments in financial markets we would expect currency substitution to be significant. A finding of currency substitution would point to a lack of credibility of programs to control inflation as foreign money is used as a method of transactions and a store of value. The data set consists of monthly series, over the years 1992-1997. The required data are taken from the CNB, Financial Statistics Report and Datastream. Even faced with a limited data set we do consistently find that a long-run relationship exists between real money balances (M0, M1 and M2), a measure of real income and inflation, with the coefficients having the expected sign. An important variant on the standard domestic model is the investigation of currency substitution. Both graphical and empirical results suggest that any currency substitution was a one-off event due to increased uncertainty at the end of 1992 at the time of monetary dissolution. Certainly currency substitution in the Czech Republic is not as strong as has been found in other former centrally planned economies. This may be due to the gradual reform taken by the Czech authorities, the stable rates of inflation and the relatively stable exchange rate (and volatility of the exchange rate) established after 1993 which provides less incentive in currency substitution.

Fixation Probability for Competing Selective Sweeps

We consider a biological population in which a beneficial mutation is undergoing a selective sweep when a second beneficial mutation arises at a linked locus and we investigate the probability that both mutations will eventually fix in the population. Previous work has dealt with the case where the second mutation to arise confers a smaller benefit than the first. In that case population size plays almost no role. Here we consider the opposite case and observe that, by contrast, the probability of both mutations fixing can be heavily dependent on population size. Indeed the key parameter is $\rho N$, the product of the population size and the recombination rate between the two selected loci. If $\rho N$ is small, the probability that both mutations fix can be reduced through interference to almost zero while for large $\rho N$ the mutations barely influence one another. The main rigorous result is a method for calculating the fixation probability of a double mutant in the large population limit.Comment: 33 pages, 3 figure

The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure - The Case of Ireland

Using a number of short-term maturities and monthly data, 1984-1997, we provide a number of tests of the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure. The paper draws on cointegration techniques and the methodological approach of Campbell and Shiller (1987,1991). On balance our results lend support to the EH and are broadly consistent with recent findings for the UK, but are in sharp contrast to those for the US.

Renal function, revascularization and risk

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