The association between Parkinson's disease and anti-epilepsy drug carbamazepine: a case-control study using the UK General Practice Research Database.

AIMS: To investigate whether the use of carbamazepine is associated with reduced risk of Parkinson's disease. METHODS: We conducted a population-based, matched case-control study of patients randomly selected from the UK General Research Practice Database. We identified 8549 patients with Parkinson's disease using diagnosis criteria with a positive predictive value of 90%. These patients were compared with 42, 160 control subjects matched for age, sex and general practice. RESULTS: Overall, 3.0% of cases (257 of 8549) had at least one recorded prescription for carbamazepine compared with 2.5% (1050 of 42, 160) of controls. The crude odds ratio for the association between Parkinson's disease and carbamazepine was 1.22 (95% confidence interval 1.06-1.40), but this reduced to 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.81-1.08, P = 0.34) after adjusting for annual consultation rate. Further adjustment for body mass index, smoking status, alcohol consumption or use of calcium channel blockers did not affect results. There was no evidence that risk decreased with higher doses or longer duration of carbamazepine use. CONCLUSIONS: There was little to no evidence that use of carbamazepine is associated with reduced risk of Parkinson's disease. Although the study was underpowered, it does indicate that any effect of carbamazepine is likely to be small

The prevalence of Type 2 diabetes and its associated health problems in a community-dwelling elderly population.

AIMS: Prevalence estimates of Type 2 diabetes and its associated health problems in elderly populations are rare, especially in the very elderly. METHODS: A sample of 15 095 community-dwelling older people aged > or = 75 years were assessed. Type 2 diabetes and associated health problems were identified using self-reporting, general practitioner records, drug histories, and blood and urine measurements. RESULTS: There were 1177 people identified as having Type 2 diabetes mellitus, giving an overall prevalence of 7.8% (95% confidence interval 7.1, 8.5), 9.4% (8.4, 10.5) for men and 6.8% (6.1, 7.6) for women. The age, sex and smoking adjusted odds ratios for various health problems, comparing people with and without diabetes were: low vision 1.6 (1.3, 1.9), proteinuria 1.7 (1.4, 2.1), chronic kidney disease stage 4 or 5 1.5 (1.0, 2.1), angina 1.3 (1.1, 1.6), myocardial infarction 1.5 (1.2, 1.8), cerebrovascular event 2.0 (1.8, 2.1) and foot ulceration 1.7 (1.2, 2.4). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of Type 2 diabetes is not high in community-dwelling older people, but diabetes was a contributory factor to a number of health problems

Hospital admissions in older people with visual impairment in Britain.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the risk of hospital admission associated with visual impairment in a representative sample of older people living in the community in Britain. METHODS: DESIGN: Prospective study of hospital admission in a population-based sample of community dwelling people aged 75 years and above in Britain. SETTING: 53 general practices. PARTICIPANTS: 14,394 participants in the MRC Trial of Assessment and Management of Older people in the Community. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Hospital admission. RESULTS: Visually impaired older people had 238.7 admissions/1000 person-years compared to 169.7 admissions/1000 person-years in people with good vision: age and sex adjusted rate ratio (RR) 1.32 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.47). Adjusting for a wide range of potential explanatory factors largely eliminated this association: RR 1.06 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.20). However, adjusting for a more limited range of confounding factors, excluding those factors possibly a consequence of reduced vision, left a modest increased risk: RR 1.19 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.34). CONCLUSION: The association between visual impairment and rate of hospital admission can be attributed to higher levels of co-morbidity and reduced functional ability among people with reduced vision. Visual impairment is likely to be an important contributor to reduced functional ability, but other factors may also be involved

Prognostic variables and scores identifying the last year of life in COPD: a systematic review protocol

Introduction People living with advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) suffer from significant morbidity, reduced quality of life and high mortality, and are likely to benefit from many aspects of a palliative care approach. Prognostic estimates are a meaningful part of decision-making and better evidence for such estimates would facilitate advance care planning. We aim to provide quality evidence on known prognostic variables and scores which predict a prognosis in COPD of <12 months for use in the community. Methods and analysis We will conduct a systematic review of randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials, prospective and retrospective longitudinal cohort and case–control studies on prognostic variables, multivariate scores or models for COPD. The search will cover the period up to April 2016. Study selection will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, with data extraction using fields from the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS) checklist for multivariate models, and study quality will be assessed using a modified version of the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool. Ethics and dissemination The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and national and international conference presentations

Association between clinical presentations before myocardial infarction and coronary mortality: a prospective population-based study using linked electronic records.

BACKGROUND: Ischaemia in different arterial territories before acute myocardial infarction (AMI) may influence post-AMI outcomes. No studies have evaluated prospectively collected information on ischaemia and its effect on short- and long-term coronary mortality. The objective of this study was to compare patients with and without prospectively measured ischaemic presentations before AMI in terms of infarct characteristics and coronary mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: As part of the CALIBER programme, we linked data from primary care, hospital admissions, the national acute coronary syndrome registry and cause-specific mortality to identify patients with first AMI (n = 16,439). We analysed time from AMI to coronary mortality (n = 5283 deaths) using Cox regression (median 2.6 years follow-up), comparing patients with and without recent ischaemic presentations. Patients with ischaemic presentations in the 90 days before AMI experienced lower coronary mortality in the first 7 days after AMI compared with those with no prior ischaemic presentations, after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, diabetes, blood pressure and cardiovascular medications [HR: 0.64 (95% CI: 0.57-0.73) P < 0.001], but subsequent mortality was higher [HR: 1.42 (1.13-1.77) P = 0.001]. Patients with ischaemic presentations closer in time to AMI had the lowest seven day mortality (P-trend = 0.001). CONCLUSION: In the first large prospective study of ischaemic presentations prior to AMI, we have shown that those occurring closest to AMI are associated with lower short-term coronary mortality following AMI, which could represent a natural ischaemic preconditioning effect, observed in a clinical setting. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT01604486

Heat and risk of myocardial infarction: hourly level case-crossover analysis of MINAP database.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the association between exposure to higher temperatures and the risk of myocardial infarction at an hourly temporal resolution. DESIGN: Case-crossover study. SETTING: England and Wales Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) database. PARTICIPANTS: 24,861 hospital admissions for myocardial infarction occurring in 11 conurbations during the warmest months (June to August) of the years 2003-09. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Odds ratio of myocardial infarction for a 1 °C increase in temperature. RESULTS: Strong evidence was found for an effect of heat acting 1-6 hours after exposure to temperatures above an estimated threshold of 20 °C (95% confidence interval 16 °C to 25 °C). For each 1 °C increase in temperature above this threshold, the risk of myocardial infarction increased by 1.9% (0.5% to 3.3%, P=0.009). Later reductions in risk seemed to offset early increases in risk: the cumulative effect of a 1 °C rise in temperature above the threshold was 0.2% (-2.1% to 2.5%) by the end of the third day after exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Higher ambient temperatures above a threshold of 20 °C seem to be associated with a transiently increased risk of myocardial infarction 1-6 hours after exposure. Reductions in risk at longer lags are consistent with heat triggering myocardial infarctions early in highly vulnerable people who would otherwise have had a myocardial infarction some time later ("short term displacement"). Policies aimed at reducing the health effects of hot weather should include consideration of effects operating at sub-daily timescales

What is the difference between missing completely at random and missing at random?

The terminology describing missingness mechanisms is confusing. In particular the meaning of 'missing at random' is often misunderstood, leading researchers faced with missing data problems away from multiple imputation, a method with considerable advantages. The purpose of this article is to clarify how 'missing at random' differs from 'missing completely at random' via an imagined dialogue between a clinical researcher and statistician