State of the art in selection of variables and functional forms in multivariable analysis-outstanding issues

Background: How to select variables and identify functional forms for continuous variables is a key concern when creating a multivariable model. Ad hoc ‘traditional’ approaches to variable selection have been in use for at least 50 years. Similarly, methods for determining functional forms for continuous variables were first suggested many years ago. More recently, many alternative approaches to address these two challenges have been proposed, but knowledge of their properties and meaningful comparisons between them are scarce. To define a state of the art and to provide evidence-supported guidance to researchers who have only a basic level of statistical knowledge, many outstanding issues in multivariable modelling remain. Our main aims are to identify and illustrate such gaps in the literature and present them at a moderate technical level to the wide community of practitioners, researchers and students of statistics. Methods: We briefly discuss general issues in building descriptive regression models, strategies for variable selection, different ways of choosing functional forms for continuous variables and methods for combining the selection of variables and functions. We discuss two examples, taken from the medical literature, to illustrate problems in the practice of modelling. Results: Our overview revealed that there is not yet enough evidence on which to base recommendations for the selection of variables and functional forms in multivariable analysis. Such evidence may come from comparisons between alternative methods. In particular, we highlight seven important topics that require further investigation and make suggestions for the direction of further research. Conclusions: Selection of variables and of functional forms are important topics in multivariable analysis. To define a state of the art and to provide evidence-supported guidance to researchers who have only a basic level of statistical knowledge, further comparative research is required

The catalytic subunit of the system L1 amino acid transporter (S<i>lc7a5</i>) facilitates nutrient signalling in mouse skeletal muscle

The System L1-type amino acid transporter mediates transport of large neutral amino acids (LNAA) in many mammalian cell-types. LNAA such as leucine are required for full activation of the mTOR-S6K signalling pathway promoting protein synthesis and cell growth. The SLC7A5 (LAT1) catalytic subunit of high-affinity System L1 functions as a glycoprotein-associated heterodimer with the multifunctional protein SLC3A2 (CD98). We generated a floxed Slc7a5 mouse strain which, when crossed with mice expressing Cre driven by a global promoter, produced Slc7a5 heterozygous knockout (Slc7a5+/-) animals with no overt phenotype, although homozygous global knockout of Slc7a5 was embryonically lethal. Muscle-specific (MCK Cre-mediated) Slc7a5 knockout (MS-Slc7a5-KO) mice were used to study the role of intracellular LNAA delivery by the SLC7A5 transporter for mTOR-S6K pathway activation in skeletal muscle. Activation of muscle mTOR-S6K (Thr389 phosphorylation) in vivo by intraperitoneal leucine injection was blunted in homozygous MS-Slc7a5-KO mice relative to wild-type animals. Dietary intake and growth rate were similar for MS-Slc7a5-KO mice and wild-type littermates fed for 10 weeks (to age 120 days) with diets containing 10%, 20% or 30% of protein. In MS-Slc7a5-KO mice, Leu and Ile concentrations in gastrocnemius muscle were reduced by ∼40% as dietary protein content was reduced from 30 to 10%. These changes were associated with >50% decrease in S6K Thr389 phosphorylation in muscles from MS-Slc7a5-KO mice, indicating reduced mTOR-S6K pathway activation, despite no significant differences in lean tissue mass between groups on the same diet. MS-Slc7a5-KO mice on 30% protein diet exhibited mild insulin resistance (e.g. reduced glucose clearance, larger gonadal adipose depots) relative to control animals. Thus, SLC7A5 modulates LNAA-dependent muscle mTOR-S6K signalling in mice, although it appears non-essential (or is sufficiently compensated by e.g. SLC7A8 (LAT2)) for maintenance of normal muscle mass

The Effects of Biting and Pulling on the Forces Generated during Feeding in the Komodo Dragon (Varanus komodoensis)

In addition to biting, it has been speculated that the forces resulting from pulling on food items may also contribute to feeding success in carnivorous vertebrates. We present an in vivo analysis of both bite and pulling forces in Varanus komodoensis, the Komodo dragon, to determine how they contribute to feeding behavior. Observations of cranial modeling and behavior suggest that V. komodoensis feeds using bite force supplemented by pulling in the caudal/ventrocaudal direction. We tested these observations using force gauges/transducers to measure biting and pulling forces. Maximum bite force correlates with both body mass and total body length, likely due to increased muscle mass. Individuals showed consistent behaviors when biting, including the typical medial-caudal head rotation. Pull force correlates best with total body length, longer limbs and larger postcranial motions. None of these forces correlated well with head dimensions. When pulling, V. komodoensis use neck and limb movements that are associated with increased caudal and ventral oriented force. Measured bite force in Varanus komodoensis is similar to several previous estimations based on 3D models, but is low for its body mass relative to other vertebrates. Pull force, especially in the ventrocaudal direction, would allow individuals to hunt and deflesh with high success without the need of strong jaw adductors. In future studies, pull forces need to be considered for a complete understanding of vertebrate carnivore feeding dynamics

A Potential Neural Substrate for Processing Functional Classes of Complex Acoustic Signals

Categorization is essential to all cognitive processes, but identifying the neural substrates underlying categorization processes is a real challenge. Among animals that have been shown to be able of categorization, songbirds are particularly interesting because they provide researchers with clear examples of categories of acoustic signals allowing different levels of recognition, and they possess a system of specialized brain structures found only in birds that learn to sing: the song system. Moreover, an avian brain nucleus that is analogous to the mammalian secondary auditory cortex (the caudo-medial nidopallium, or NCM) has recently emerged as a plausible site for sensory representation of birdsong, and appears as a well positioned brain region for categorization of songs. Hence, we tested responses in this non-primary, associative area to clear and distinct classes of songs with different functions and social values, and for a possible correspondence between these responses and the functional aspects of songs, in a highly social songbird species: the European starling. Our results clearly show differential neuronal responses to the ethologically defined classes of songs, both in the number of neurons responding, and in the response magnitude of these neurons. Most importantly, these differential responses corresponded to the functional classes of songs, with increasing activation from non-specific to species-specific and from species-specific to individual-specific sounds. These data therefore suggest a potential neural substrate for sorting natural communication signals into categories, and for individual vocal recognition of same-species members. Given the many parallels that exist between birdsong and speech, these results may contribute to a better understanding of the neural bases of speech

Implementation of preventive strength training in residential geriatric care: a multi-centre study protocol with one year of interventions on multiple levels

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is scientific evidence that preventive physical exercise is effective even in high age. In contrast, there are few opportunities of preventive exercise for highly aged people endangered by or actually in need of care. For example, they would not be able to easily go to training facilities; standard exercises may be too intensive and therefore be harmful to them; orientation disorders like dementia would exacerbate individuals and groups in following instructions and keeping exercises going. In order to develop appropriate interventions, these and other issues were assigned to different levels: the individual-social level (ISL), the organisational-institutional level (OIL) and the political-cultural level (PCL). Consequently, this conceptional framework was utilised for development, implementation and evaluation of a new strength and balance exercise programme for old people endangered by or actually in need of daily care. The present paper contains the development of this programme labeled "fit for 100", and a study protocol of an interventional single-arm multi-centre trial.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The intervention consisted of (a) two group training sessions every week over one year, mainly resistance exercises, accompanied by sensorimotor and communicative group exercises and games (ISL), (b) a sustainable implementation concept, starting new groups by instructors belonging to the project, followed by training and supervision of local staff, who stepwise take over the group (OIL), (c) informing and convincing activities in professional, administrative and governmental contexts, public relation activities, and establishing an advisory council with renowned experts and public figures (PCL). Participating institutions of geriatric care were selected through several steps of quality criteria assessment. Primary outcome measures were continuous documentation of individual participation (ISL), number of groups continued without external financial support (at the end of the project, and after one year) (OIL). Secondary outcome was measured by sensorimotor tests and care-related assessments in the beginning and every 16 weeks (ISL), by qualitative outcome descriptions 12 months after group implementation (OIL) and by analysis of media response and structured interviews with stakeholders, also after 12 months (PCL).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Exemplarily, preventive exercise has been established for a neglected target population. The multi-level approach used here seems to be helpful to overcome institutional and individual (attitude) barriers.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN55213782</p

Synthetic biology to access and expand nature's chemical diversity

Bacterial genomes encode the biosynthetic potential to produce hundreds of thousands of complex molecules with diverse applications, from medicine to agriculture and materials. Accessing these natural products promises to reinvigorate drug discovery pipelines and provide novel routes to synthesize complex chemicals. The pathways leading to the production of these molecules often comprise dozens of genes spanning large areas of the genome and are controlled by complex regulatory networks with some of the most interesting molecules being produced by non-model organisms. In this Review, we discuss how advances in synthetic biology — including novel DNA construction technologies, the use of genetic parts for the precise control of expression and for synthetic regulatory circuits — and multiplexed genome engineering can be used to optimize the design and synthesis of pathways that produce natural products

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Pan-cancer analysis of whole genomes

Cancer is driven by genetic change, and the advent of massively parallel sequencing has enabled systematic documentation of this variation at the whole-genome scale(1-3). Here we report the integrative analysis of 2,658 whole-cancer genomes and their matching normal tissues across 38 tumour types from the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium of the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We describe the generation of the PCAWG resource, facilitated by international data sharing using compute clouds. On average, cancer genomes contained 4-5 driver mutations when combining coding and non-coding genomic elements; however, in around 5% of cases no drivers were identified, suggesting that cancer driver discovery is not yet complete. Chromothripsis, in which many clustered structural variants arise in a single catastrophic event, is frequently an early event in tumour evolution; in acral melanoma, for example, these events precede most somatic point mutations and affect several cancer-associated genes simultaneously. Cancers with abnormal telomere maintenance often originate from tissues with low replicative activity and show several mechanisms of preventing telomere attrition to critical levels. Common and rare germline variants affect patterns of somatic mutation, including point mutations, structural variants and somatic retrotransposition. A collection of papers from the PCAWG Consortium describes non-coding mutations that drive cancer beyond those in the TERT promoter(4); identifies new signatures of mutational processes that cause base substitutions, small insertions and deletions and structural variation(5,6); analyses timings and patterns of tumour evolution(7); describes the diverse transcriptional consequences of somatic mutation on splicing, expression levels, fusion genes and promoter activity(8,9); and evaluates a range of more-specialized features of cancer genomes(8,10-18).Peer reviewe

Effects of alirocumab on types of myocardial infarction: insights from the ODYSSEY OUTCOMES trial

Aims  The third Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction (MI) Task Force classified MIs into five types: Type 1, spontaneous; Type 2, related to oxygen supply/demand imbalance; Type 3, fatal without ascertainment of cardiac biomarkers; Type 4, related to percutaneous coronary intervention; and Type 5, related to coronary artery bypass surgery. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) reduction with statins and proprotein convertase subtilisin–kexin Type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors reduces risk of MI, but less is known about effects on types of MI. ODYSSEY OUTCOMES compared the PCSK9 inhibitor alirocumab with placebo in 18 924 patients with recent acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and elevated LDL-C (≥1.8 mmol/L) despite intensive statin therapy. In a pre-specified analysis, we assessed the effects of alirocumab on types of MI. Methods and results  Median follow-up was 2.8 years. Myocardial infarction types were prospectively adjudicated and classified. Of 1860 total MIs, 1223 (65.8%) were adjudicated as Type 1, 386 (20.8%) as Type 2, and 244 (13.1%) as Type 4. Few events were Type 3 (n = 2) or Type 5 (n = 5). Alirocumab reduced first MIs [hazard ratio (HR) 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77–0.95; P = 0.003], with reductions in both Type 1 (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.77–0.99; P = 0.032) and Type 2 (0.77, 0.61–0.97; P = 0.025), but not Type 4 MI. Conclusion  After ACS, alirocumab added to intensive statin therapy favourably impacted on Type 1 and 2 MIs. The data indicate for the first time that a lipid-lowering therapy can attenuate the risk of Type 2 MI. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction below levels achievable with statins is an effective preventive strategy for both MI types.For complete list of authors see http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehz299</p