Social Security: What Would Happen If the Trust Funds Ran Out?

[Excerpt] Each year when the Social Security trustees release their annual report, attention is focused on the projection of the year that the Social Security trust funds will become insolvent. In their 2014 report, the Trustees projected that, under their intermediate assumptions and under current law, the Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund will become exhausted in 2016 and the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will do so in 2034. Although the two funds are legally separate, they are often described in combination. The trustees project that the combined Social Security trust funds will become exhausted in 2033. Some Americans may believe that if the trust funds were exhausted, Social Security would be unable to pay any benefits. In fact, in 2033, the first year of projected insolvency of the combined Social Security trust funds, the program is projected to have enough tax revenue to pay about 77% of scheduled benefits; that percentage would decline to 72% by the end of the 75-year projection period. Although benefits would be paid in some form, it is unclear how the necessary reductions would be implemented, because the Social Security Act does not specify what would happen to benefits if a trust fund became exhausted. One option would be to pay full benefit checks on a delayed schedule; another would be to make timely but reduced payments. This report explains what the Social Security trust funds are and how they work. It describes the historical operations of the trust funds and the Social Security trustees’ projections of future operations. It explains what could happen if Congress allowed the trust funds to run out. It also analyzes two scenarios that assume Congress waits until the moment of insolvency to act, showing the magnitude of benefit cuts or tax increases needed and how such changes would affect beneficiaries

ISY Mission to Planet Earth Conference: A planning meeting for the International Space Year

A major theme was the opportunity offered by the International Space Year (ISY) to initiate a long-term program of Earth observation mission coordination and worldwide data standardization. The challenge is immense and extremely time critical. A recommendation was made to inventory the capabilities of Earth observing spacecraft scheduled during the next decade. The ISY effort to strengthen coordination and standardization should emphasize global issues, and also regional initiatives of particular relevance to developing nations. The concepts of a Global Information System Test (GIST) was accepted and applied to specific issues of immediate concern. The importance of ISY Earth observation initiatives extending beyond research to include immediate and direct applications for social and economic development was stressed. Several specific Mission to Planet Earth proposals were developed during the Conference. A mechanism was set up for coordinating participation of the national space agencies or equivalent bodies

Beyond EICA : understanding post-establishment evolution requires a broader evaluation of potential selection pressures

Research on post-establishment evolution in nonnative plant populations has focused almost exclusively on testing the Evolution of Increased Competitive Ability (EICA) hypothesis, which posits that the lack of specialized herbivores in the invaded range drives evolution in nonnative plant populations. Fifteen years of conflicting EICA test results suggest that selection pressures other than specialized herbivory are important in driving post-establishment evolution in invasive species. Alternative hypotheses, such as the Evolution of Reduced Competitive Ability (ERCA) hypothesis, have been proposed but have received little attention or testing. We argue that the lack of consensus across studies that test EICA may be due in part to the lack of consistent definitions and varying experimental design parameters, and that future research in this field would benefit from new methodological considerations. We examined previous work evaluating post-establishment evolution and evaluated the range of study systems and design parameters used in testing the EICA hypothesis. Our goal was to identify where different uses of ecological terms and different study parameters have hindered consensus and to suggest a path forward to move beyond EICA in post-establishment evolution studies. We incorporated these methods into a design framework that will increase data harmony across future studies and will facilitate examinations of any potential selection pressure driving evolution in the invaded range

DMVP: Foremost Waypoint Coverage of Time-Varying Graphs

We consider the Dynamic Map Visitation Problem (DMVP), in which a team of agents must visit a collection of critical locations as quickly as possible, in an environment that may change rapidly and unpredictably during the agents' navigation. We apply recent formulations of time-varying graphs (TVGs) to DMVP, shedding new light on the computational hierarchy $\mathcal{R} \supset \mathcal{B} \supset \mathcal{P}$ of TVG classes by analyzing them in the context of graph navigation. We provide hardness results for all three classes, and for several restricted topologies, we show a separation between the classes by showing severe inapproximability in $\mathcal{R}$, limited approximability in $\mathcal{B}$, and tractability in $\mathcal{P}$. We also give topologies in which DMVP in $\mathcal{R}$ is fixed parameter tractable, which may serve as a first step toward fully characterizing the features that make DMVP difficult.Comment: 24 pages. Full version of paper from Proceedings of WG 2014, LNCS, Springer-Verla

Invasion science, ecology and economics : seeking roads not taken

As members of the editorial board of Neobiota who, for various reasons, didn’t get our names on the original editorial (Kühn et al. 2011), we would like to add a coda to it. Even though there were 38 bullet points listing areas in invasion science where more work is needed, we would like to mention additional areas that we hope would be addressed in future issues of Neobiota. Like the other editors, we would like this innovative and exciting new journal to lead the way in all areas of invasion science. As the graphs in Gurevitch et al. (2011) and Kühn et al. (2011) show, the literature on invasions has been increasing almost exponentially since the early 1980s and so we cannot expect any list of areas of interest to stay complete and up to date for very long. Three areas that we would like to stress are the interaction between invasion science and economics and the role that invasion science should play in advancing pure ecology in two areas, population dynamics and ecosystem ecology. Neither ecology nor economics appears as a word in the original bullet list, but many of the topics are obviously ecological while none are obviously economic. For economics, we want to point out its relevance to invasion science and the feedback between the two disciplines, particularly in a rapidly changing world with powerful new emerging economies. For ecology, we want to emphasise not what ecology tells us about invasions but what invasions reveal about ecology and evolution at two scales

Accurate estimation of homologue-specific DNA concentration-ratios in cancer samples allows long-range haplotyping

Interpretation of allelic copy measurements at polymorphic markers in cancer samples presents distinctive challenges and opportunities. Due to frequent gross chromosomal alterations occurring in cancer (aneuploidy), many genomic regions are present at homologous-allele imbalance. Within such regions, the unequal contribution of alleles at heterozygous markers allows for direct phasing of the haplotype derived from each individual parent. In addition, genome-wide estimates of homologue specific copy- ratios (HSCRs) are important for interpretation of the cancer genome in terms of fixed integral copy-numbers. We describe HAPSEG, a probabilistic method to interpret bi- allelic marker data in cancer samples. HAPSEG operates by partitioning the genome into segments of distinct copy number and modeling the four distinct genotypes in each segment. We describe general methods for fitting these models to data which are suit- able for both SNP microarrays and massively parallel sequencing data. In addition, we demonstrate a specially tailored error-model for interpretation of systematic variations arising in microarray platforms. The ability to directly determine haplotypes from cancer samples represents an opportunity to expand reference panels of phased chromosomes, which may have general interest in various population genetic applications. In addition, this property may be exploited to interrogate the relationship between germline risk and cancer phenotype with greater sensitivity than is possible using unphased genotype. Finally, we exploit the statistical dependency of phased genotypes to enable the fitting of more elaborate sample-level error-model parameters, allowing more accurate estimation of HSCRs in cancer samples