Studying the complexity of change: toward an analytical framework for understanding deliberate social-ecological transformations

Faced with numerous seemingly intractable social and environmental challenges, many scholars and practitioners are increasingly interested in understanding how to actively engage and transform the existing systems holding such problems in place. Although a variety of analytical models have emerged in recent years, most emphasize either the social or ecological elements of such transformations rather than their coupled nature. To address this, first we have presented a definition of the core elements of a social-ecological system (SES) that could potentially be altered in a transformation. Second, we drew on insights about transformation from three branches of literature focused on radical change, i.e., social movements, socio-technical transitions, and social innovation, and gave consideration to the similarities and differences with the current studies by resilience scholars. Drawing on these findings, we have proposed a framework that outlines the process and phases of transformative change in an SES. Future research will be able to utilize the framework as a tool for analyzing the alteration of social-ecological feedbacks, identifying critical barriers and leverage points and assessing the outcome of social-ecological transformations

Phylogenetic Codivergence Supports Coevolution of Mimetic Heliconius Butterflies

The unpalatable and warning-patterned butterflies _Heliconius erato_ and _Heliconius melpomene_ provide the best studied example of mutualistic Müllerian mimicry, thought – but rarely demonstrated – to promote coevolution. Some of the strongest available evidence for coevolution comes from phylogenetic codivergence, the parallel divergence of ecologically associated lineages. Early evolutionary reconstructions suggested codivergence between mimetic populations of _H. erato_ and _H. melpomene_, and this was initially hailed as the most striking known case of coevolution. However, subsequent molecular phylogenetic analyses found discrepancies in phylogenetic branching patterns and timing (topological and temporal incongruence) that argued against codivergence. We present the first explicit cophylogenetic test of codivergence between mimetic populations of _H. erato_ and _H. melpomene_, and re-examine the timing of these radiations. We find statistically significant topological congruence between multilocus coalescent population phylogenies of _H. erato_ and _H. melpomene_, supporting repeated codivergence of mimetic populations. Divergence time estimates, based on a Bayesian coalescent model, suggest that the evolutionary radiations of _H. erato_ and _H. melpomene_ occurred over the same time period, and are compatible with a series of temporally congruent codivergence events. This evidence supports a history of reciprocal coevolution between Müllerian co-mimics characterised by phylogenetic codivergence and parallel phenotypic change

Tools for Resilience Management: Multidisciplinary Development of State-and-Transition Models for Northwest Colorado

Building models is an important way of integrating knowledge. Testing and updating models of social-ecological systems can inform management decisions and, ultimately, improve resilience. We report on the outcomes of a six-year, multidisciplinary model development process in the sagebrush steppe, USA. We focused on creating state-and-transition models (STMs), conceptual models of ecosystem change that represent nonlinear dynamics and are being adopted worldwide as tools for managing ecosystems. STM development occurred in four steps with four distinct sets of models: (1) local knowledge elicitation using semistructured interviews; (2) ecological data collection using an observational study; (3) model integration using participatory workshops; and (4) model simplification upon review of the literature by a multidisciplinary team. We found that different knowledge types are ultimately complementary. Many of the benefits of the STM-building process flowed from the knowledge integration steps, including improved communication, identification of uncertainties, and production of more broadly credible STMs that can be applied in diverse situations. The STM development process also generated hypotheses about sagebrush steppe dynamics that could be tested by future adaptive management and research. We conclude that multidisciplinary development of STMs has great potential for producing credible, useful tools for managing resilience of social-ecological systems. Based on this experience, we outline a streamlined, participatory STM development process that integrates multiple types of knowledge and incorporates adaptive management

Soluble Corn Fiber Increases Calcium Absorption Associated with Shifts in the Gut Microbiome: A Randomized Dose-Response Trial in Free-Living Pubertal Females.

BACKGROUND: Soluble corn fiber (SCF; 12 g fiber/d) is shown to increase calcium absorption efficiency, associated with shifts in the gut microbiota in adolescent males and females who participated in a controlled feeding study. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the dose response of 0, 10, and 20 g fiber/d delivered by PROMITOR SCF 85 (85% fiber) on calcium absorption, biochemical bone properties, and the fecal microbiome in free-living adolescents. METHODS: Healthy adolescent females (n = 28; aged 11-14 y) randomly assigned into a 3-phase, double-blind, crossover study consumed SCF for 4 wk at each dose (0, 10, and 20 g fiber/d from SCF) alongside their habitual diet and were followed by 3-d clinical visits and 3-wk washout periods. Stable isotope ((44)Ca and (43)Ca) enrichment in pooled urine was measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Fecal microbial community composition was assessed by high-throughput sequencing (Illumina) of polymerase chain reaction-amplified 16S rRNA genes. Mixed model ANOVA and Friedman analysis were used to determine effects of SCF on calcium absorption and to compare mean microbial proportions, respectively. RESULTS: Calcium absorption increased significantly with 10 (13.3% ± 5.3%; P = 0.042) and 20 g fiber/d (12.9% ± 3.6%; P = 0.026) from SCF relative to control. Significant differences in fecal microbial community diversity were found after consuming SCF (operational taxonomic unit measures of 601.4 ± 83.5, 634.5 ± 83.8, and 649.6 ± 75.5 for 0, 10, and 20 g fiber/d, respectively; P < 0.05). Proportions of the genus Parabacteroides significantly increased with SCF dose (1.1% ± 0.8%, 2.1% ± 1.6%, and 3.0% ± 2.0% for 0, 10, and 20 g fiber/d from SCF, respectively; P < 0.05). Increases in calcium absorption positively correlated with increases in Clostridium (r = 0.44, P = 0.023) and unclassified Clostridiaceae (r = 0.40, P = 0.040). CONCLUSIONS: SCF, a nondigestible carbohydrate, increased calcium absorption in free-living adolescent females. Two groups of bacteria may be involved, one directly fermenting SCF and the second fermenting SCF metabolites further, thereby promoting increased calcium absorption. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01660503