Hybrid Shrinkage Estimators Using Penalty Bases For The Ordinal One-Way Layout

This paper constructs improved estimators of the means in the Gaussian saturated one-way layout with an ordinal factor. The least squares estimator for the mean vector in this saturated model is usually inadmissible. The hybrid shrinkage estimators of this paper exploit the possibility of slow variation in the dependence of the means on the ordered factor levels but do not assume it and respond well to faster variation if present. To motivate the development, candidate penalized least squares (PLS) estimators for the mean vector of a one-way layout are represented as shrinkage estimators relative to the penalty basis for the regression space. This canonical representation suggests further classes of candidate estimators for the unknown means: monotone shrinkage (MS) estimators or soft-thresholding (ST) estimators or, most generally, hybrid shrinkage (HS) estimators that combine the preceding two strategies. Adaptation selects the estimator within a candidate class that minimizes estimated risk. Under the Gaussian saturated one-way layout model, such adaptive estimators minimize risk asymptotically over the class of candidate estimators as the number of factor levels tends to infinity. Thereby, adaptive HS estimators asymptotically dominate adaptive MS and adaptive ST estimators as well as the least squares estimator. Local annihilators of polynomials, among them difference operators, generate penalty bases suitable for a range of numerical examples.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053604000000652 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

On parameter estimation for locally stationary long-memory processes

We consider parameter estimation for time-dependent locally stationary long-memory processes. The asymptotic distribution of an estimator based on the local infinite autoregressive representation is derived, and asymptotic formulas for the mean squared error of the estimator, and the asymptotically optimal bandwidth are obtained. In spite of long memory, the optimal bandwidth turns out to be of the order n^(-1/5) and inversely proportional to the square of the second derivative of d. In this sense, local estimation of d is comparable to regression smoothing with iid residuals.long memory, fractional ARIMA process, local stationarity, bandwidth selection

Special observations

The wind or temperature profiler is a new special observation device designed to supplement traditional atmospheric measurement and provide more accurate middle-range forecasts, including aviation and space applications. Radar is most useful in the short, nowcast time frame. Satellites and surface observations are also most useful for short-range forecasts but have less impact on the longer range. The radiosonde network, on the other hand, only starts to be very important after about six hours and has greatest impact at lead times of 12 hours or more. In the wind profiler, wind is measured by using clear-air Doppler radar principles, Two fixed beams, pointing 15 deg to the north and 15 deg to the east, sense the Doppler shift. The resulting wind vectors are then rotated to the horizontal and combined to give total wind. The temperature profiler measures temperature and humidity by using passive radiometers. Development on the profiler is 95 percent complete, and on the temperature profiler 75 percent complete

On estimating extremal dependence structures by parametric spectral measures

Estimation of extreme value copulas is often required in situations where available data are sparse. Parametric methods may then be the preferred approach. A possible way of defining parametric families that are simple and, at the same time, cover a large variety of multivariate extremal dependence structures is to build models based on spectral measures. This approach is considered here. Parametric families of spectral measures are defined as convex hulls of suitable basis elements, and parameters are estimated by projecting an initial nonparametric estimator on these finite-dimensional spaces. Asymptotic distributions are derived for the estimated parameters and the resulting estimates of the spectral measure and the extreme value copula. Finite sample properties are illustrated by a simulation study

On approximate pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation for LARCH-processes

Linear ARCH (LARCH) processes were introduced by Robinson [J. Econometrics 47 (1991) 67--84] to model long-range dependence in volatility and leverage. Basic theoretical properties of LARCH processes have been investigated in the recent literature. However, there is a lack of estimation methods and corresponding asymptotic theory. In this paper, we consider estimation of the dependence parameters for LARCH processes with non-summable hyperbolically decaying coefficients. Asymptotic limit theorems are derived. A central limit theorem with $\sqrt{n}$-rate of convergence holds for an approximate conditional pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator. To obtain a computable version that includes observed values only, a further approximation is required. The computable estimator is again asymptotically normal, however with a rate of convergence that is slower than $\sqrt{n}.$Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/09-BEJ189 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

On asymptotically optimal wavelet estimation of trend functions under long-range dependence

We consider data-adaptive wavelet estimation of a trend function in a time series model with strongly dependent Gaussian residuals. Asymptotic expressions for the optimal mean integrated squared error and corresponding optimal smoothing and resolution parameters are derived. Due to adaptation to the properties of the underlying trend function, the approach shows very good performance for smooth trend functions while remaining competitive with minimax wavelet estimation for functions with discontinuities. Simulations illustrate the asymptotic results and finite-sample behavior.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/10-BEJ332 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Delivering Diabetes Care in the Philippines and Vietnam: Policy and Practice Issues

The aim of this study is the comparison of 2 studies looking at the barriers to access of diabetes care and medicines in the Philippines and Vietnam. These studies used the Rapid Assessment Protocol for Insulin Access. Diabetes care is provided in specialized facilities and appropriate referral systems are lacking. In Vietnam, no problems were reported with regard to diagnostic tools, whereas this was a concern in the public sector in the Philippines. Both countries had high prices for medicines in comparison to international standards. Availability of medicines was better in Vietnam than in the Philippines, especially with regard to insulin. This affected adherence as did a lack of patient education. As countries aim to provide health care to the majority of their populations through universal coverage, the challenge of diabetes cannot be neglected. Trying to achieve universal coverage in parallel to decentralization, national and local governments need adapted guidance for this

Recent Developments in Non- and Semiparametric Regression with Fractional Time Series Errors

This paper summarizes recent developments in non- and semiparametric regres- sion with stationary fractional time series errors, where the error process may be short-range, long-range dependent or antipersistent. The trend function in this model is estimated nonparametrically, while the dependence structure of the error process is estimated by approximate maximum likelihood. Asymptotic properties of these estimators are described briefly. The focus is on describing the developments of bandwidth selection in this context based on the iterative plug-in idea (Gasser et al., 1991) and some detailed computational aspects. Applications in the framework of the SEMIFAR (semiparametric fractional autoregressive) model (Beran, 1999) illustrate the practical usefulness of the methods described here.Nonparametric regression, FARIMA error processes, bandwidth selection, iterative plug-in, SEMIFAR model