Investor Right in Historical Perspective: Globalization and the Future of the Japanese Firm and Financial System

The evolution of investor right in Japan is examined in a historical perspective since the prewar period and in relation to the evolution in firm-specific skill formation. First, we will show that the investment in firm-specific skills spread from the top to the bottom in a firm system. Second, we will show that the delegation of control right of physical assets to employees was caused in order to accommodate the rapid technological changes. The weak investor right in Japan evolved through a rational choice of asset holders (shareholders and landlords), who delegated part of control right over their assets to actual producers (managers, workers, and tenant farmers) in order to maximize the benefits of firm-specific skill formation by them. A cautious approach is needed in adjusting the investor right to global standards: a stronger investor right would enhance allocation efficiency of financial resources, but it could be harmful to organizational efficiency based on investment in firm-specific skills.

Credit Spread and Monetary Policy

Recent studies argue that the spread-adjusted Taylor rule (STR), which includes a response to the credit spread, replicates monetary policy in the United State. We show (1) STR is a theoretically optimal monetary policy under heterogeneous loan interest rate contracts in both discretionay and commitment monetary policies, (2) however, the optimal response to the credit spread is ambiguous given the financial market structure in theoretically derived STR, and (3) there, a commitment policy is effective in narrowing the credit spread when the central bank hits the zero lower bound constraint of the policy rate.Credit spread, optimal monetary policy

Were Banks Really at the Center of the Prewar Japanese Financial System?

For many years, the dominant view of the Japanese financial system before World War II has been that industrial bank-type banks were at the center, and research emphasizing the role played by capital markets has generally been in the minority. Recent years, however, have seen the publication of research highlighting the development of prewar stock markets, which has sparked a debate challenging the accepted theory. This paper contains a comprehensive reconsideration of the roles played by banks and stock markets from both a quantitative and a qualitative perspective. On the quantitative side, it examines the structure of assets and liabilities in the private nonfinancial sector and long-term data on fund-raising by major manufacturing and public-sector enterprises. It concludes that while the private nonfinancial sector was in general strongly dependent on bank borrowings, when the focus is narrowed to large enterprises there was a high degree of dependence on equity fund- raising. While diachronic trends can be seen in these characteristics, it is clear that they stem from differences in data coverage and not from any basic changes in systems. On the qualitative side, the paper compares the roles played by banks and stock markets in two areas: resource allocation functions (information production functions and risk-bearing functions) and corporate governance functions. While stock markets did play some role in corporate governance, the paper concludes that resource allocation functions were only exhibited within a narrow group of wealthy individuals. On the other hand, banks played a large role in resource allocation functions by supplying risk money, but the paper concludes that their corporate governance functions were insufficient.Prewar Japan; Financial system; Banking; Stock markets; Corporate governance; Risk bearing; Information production

Financial Stability in Open Economies

This paper investigates the implications for monetary policy of financial markets that are internationally integrated but have intrinsic frictions. When there is no other distortion than financial market imperfections in the form of staggered international loan contracts, financial stability, which here constitutes eliminating the inefficient fluctuations of loan premiums, is the optimal monetary policy in open economies, regardless of whether policy coordination is possible. Yet, the optimality of inward-looking monetary policy requires an extra condition, in addition to those included in previous studies on the optimal monetary policy in open economies. To make allocations between cooperative and noncooperative monetary policy coincide, the exchange rate risk must be perfectly covered by the banks. Otherwise, each central bank has an additional incentive to control the nominal exchange rate to favor firms in her own country by reducing the exchange rate risk.optimal monetary policy, policy coordination, global banking, international staggered loan contracts

The Zero Interest Rate Policy

This paper derives a generalized optimal interest rate rule that is optimal even under a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates in an otherwise basic New Keynesian model with inflation inertia. Using this optimal rule, we investigate optimal entrance and exit strategies of the zero interest rate policy (ZIP) under the realistic model with inflation inertia and a variety of shocks. The simulation results reveal that the shapes of the entrance and exit strategies in a ZIP change considerably according to the forward- or backward-lookingness of the economy and the size of the shocks. In particular, for large shocks that result in long ZIP periods, the time to the start (end) of the ZIP period is earlier (later) in an economy with inflation inertia than in a purely forward-looking economy. However, these outcomes are surprisingly converse to small shocks that result in short ZIP periods.Zero Interest Rate Policy, Optimal Interest Rate Rule

The Evolution of Loan Rate Stickiness Across the Euro Area

To investigate the banking sector integration across euro area countries in terms of loan interest rate stickiness, we estimate structural loan rate curves for 12 euro area countries using time-varying regressions with stochastic volatility. Our results show that the loan rates are sticky to a policy interest rate in all countries for all loan maturities, the degree of stickiness differs across the countries, and the degree of difference is more prominent for longer loan maturities. For short-term loans, the loan rate stickiness decreases and for intermediate- and long-term loans the loan rate stickiness converge to average levels during the sample periods. Banking integration in the euro area is not yet complete, but the degree of heterogeneity in the loan rate stickiness decreases.banking integration, sticky loan interest rate, Bayesian analysis, time-varying regression, Markov chain Monte Carlo

Real exchange rate dynamics revisited: a case with financial market imperfections

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between real exchange rate dynamics and financial market imperfections. For this purpose, we first construct a New Open Economy Macroeconomics (NOEM) model that incorporates staggered loan contracts as a simple form of the financial market imperfections. Our model with such a financial market friction replicates persistent, volatile, and realistic hump-shaped responses of real exchange rates, which have been thought very difficult to materialize in standard NOEM models. Remarkably, these realistic responses can materialize even with both supply and demand shocks, such as cost-push, loan rate and monetary policy shocks. This implies that the financial market developments is a key element for understanding real exchange rate dynamics.Foreign exchange ; International finance ; Macroeconomics - Econometric models

A Dynamic New Keynesian Life-Cycle Model: Societal Ageing, Demographics and Monetary Policy

In this paper, we first construct a dynamic new Keynesian model that incorporates life-cycle behavior a la Gertler (1999), in order to study whether structural shocks to the economy have asymmetric effects on heterogeneous agents, namely workers and retirees. We also examine whether considerations of life-cycle and demographic structure alter the dynamic properties of the monetary business cycle model, specifically the degree of amplification in impulse responses. According to our simulation results, shocks indeed have asymmetric impacts on different households and the demographic structure does alter the size of responses against shocks by changing the degree of the trade-off between substitution and income effects.Heterogenous Agents, Life-Cycle, New Keynesian Model

Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Activism

We estimate monetary policy activism, defined as responsiveness of the policy interest rate to inflation, among five inflation-targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand) plus the G3 (the US, Japan and Germany) by applying a time- varying parameter with a stochastic-volatility model. We find that activism of inflation-targeting countries tends to have increased before (not after) the adoption of the inflation-targeting policy framework and that these countries have experienced a decline in activism in recent years, albeit to different degrees. We further explore this result in terms of the constraint of an inflation target range by developing a formal theoretical model in a New Keynesian framework.Inflation-targeting Policy, Monetary Policy Activism, New Keynesian Model, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Time-varying Parameter with Stochastic Volatility Model