A Computational Theory of Subjective Probability

In this article we demonstrate how algorithmic probability theory is applied to situations that involve uncertainty. When people are unsure of their model of reality, then the outcome they observe will cause them to update their beliefs. We argue that classical probability cannot be applied in such cases, and that subjective probability must instead be used. In Experiment 1 we show that, when judging the probability of lottery number sequences, people apply subjective rather than classical probability. In Experiment 2 we examine the conjunction fallacy and demonstrate that the materials used by Tversky and Kahneman (1983) involve model uncertainty. We then provide a formal mathematical proof that, for every uncertain model, there exists a conjunction of outcomes which is more subjectively probable than either of its constituents in isolation.Comment: Maguire, P., Moser, P. Maguire, R. & Keane, M.T. (2013) "A computational theory of subjective probability." In M. Knauff, M. Pauen, N. Sebanz, & I. Wachsmuth (Eds.), Proceedings of the 35th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 960-965). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Societ

Is Consciousness Computable? Quantifying Integrated Information Using Algorithmic Information Theory

In this article we review Tononi's (2008) theory of consciousness as integrated information. We argue that previous formalizations of integrated information (e.g. Griffith, 2014) depend on information loss. Since lossy integration would necessitate continuous damage to existing memories, we propose it is more natural to frame consciousness as a lossless integrative process and provide a formalization of this idea using algorithmic information theory. We prove that complete lossless integration requires noncomputable functions. This result implies that if unitary consciousness exists, it cannot be modelled computationally.Comment: Maguire, P., Moser, P., Maguire, R. & Griffith, V. (2014). Is consciousness computable? Quantifying integrated information using algorithmic information theory. In P. Bello, M. Guarini, M. McShane, & B. Scassellati (Eds.), Proceedings of the 36th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Societ

Learning and teaching projects 2013/14 – final report : accounting for numeracy

The overall aim of this project was to look at how to improve numeracy skills in students at the University of Bedfordshire. It focused on the diagnostic testing of students at levels 4, 5 and 6 and suitable interventions to improve skills that could be built into the curriculum. It also considered how maths is taught in schools to seek to understand more about why some students have poor scores in their tests so interventions can be more targeted at HE level

Surviving, and Maybe Thriving, on Vouchers

The Workforce Investment Act (WIA), the new law restructuring the nation's workforce development system, marks a significant change for job seekers and the practitioners who serve them. Under WIA, eligible job seekers will be issued Individual Training Accounts (ITAs), or vouchers, that can be used to enter training programs from a state-approved list. Whether vouchers will meet the goal of improving the quality of training will not be known for some time. However, the impact on organizations that serve job seekers will be immediate. Surviving, and Maybe Thriving, on Vouchers offers workforce development practitioners critical lessons about how they can adapt to this new environment, based on the experiences of organizations in jurisdictions that are already relying on vouchers