Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model

© The Author(s), 2012. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecology and Evolution 2 (2012): 593–614, doi:10.1002/ece3.85.This study aims to assess how high-latitude vegetation may respond under various climate scenarios during the 21st century with a focus on analyzing model parameters induced uncertainty and how this uncertainty compares to the uncertainty induced by various climates. The analysis was based on a set of 10,000 Monte Carlo ensemble Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) simulations for the northern high latitudes (45oN and polewards) for the period 1900–2100. The LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) was run under contemporary and future climates from four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), A1FI, A2, B1, and B2, based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and six climate scenarios, X901M, X902L, X903H, X904M, X905L, and X906H from the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). In the current dynamic vegetation model, some parameters are more important than others in determining the vegetation distribution. Parameters that control plant carbon uptake and light-use efficiency have the predominant influence on the vegetation distribution of both woody and herbaceous plant functional types. The relative importance of different parameters varies temporally and spatially and is influenced by climate inputs. In addition to climate, these parameters play an important role in determining the vegetation distribution in the region. The parameter-based uncertainties contribute most to the total uncertainty. The current warming conditions lead to a complexity of vegetation responses in the region. Temperate trees will be more sensitive to climate variability, compared with boreal forest trees and C3 perennial grasses. This sensitivity would result in a unanimous northward greenness migration due to anomalous warming in the northern high latitudes. Temporally, boreal needleleaved evergreen plants are projected to decline considerably, and a large portion of C3 perennial grass is projected to disappear by the end of the 21st century. In contrast, the area of temperate trees would increase, especially under the most extreme A1FI scenario. As the warming continues, the northward greenness expansion in the Arctic region could continue.Funded by the NASA Land Use and Land Cover Change program (NASA-NNX09AI26G), Department of Energy (DE-FG0208ER64599), National Science Foundation (NSF-1028291 and NSF-0919331), and the NSF Carbon and Water in the Earth Program (NSF-0630319)

Access to Marine Genetic Resources (MGR): Raising Awareness of Best-Practice Through a New Agreement for Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ)

Better scientific knowledge of the poorly-known deep sea and areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) is key to its conservation, an urgent need in light of increasing environmental pressures. Access to marine genetic resources (MGR) for the biodiversity research community is essential to allow these environments to be better characterised. Negotiations have commenced under the auspices of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to develop a new treaty to further the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity in ABNJ. It is timely to consider the relevant issues with the development of the treaty underway. Currently uncertainties surround the legal definition of MGR and scope of related benefit-sharing, against a background of regional and global governance gaps in ABNJ. These complications are mirrored in science, with recent major advances in the field of genomics, but variability in handling of the resulting increasing volumes of data. Here, we attempt to define the concept of MGR from a scientific perspective, review current practices for the generation of and access to MGR from ABNJ in the context of relevant regulations, and illustrate the utility of best-practice with a case study. We contribute recommendations with a view to strengthen best-practice in accessibility of MGR, including: funder recognition of the central importance of taxonomy/biodiversity research; support of museums/collections for long-term sample curation; open access to data; usage and further development of globally recognised data standards and platforms; publishing of datasets via open-access, quality controlled and standardised data systems and open access journals; commitment to best-practice workflows; a global registry of cruises; and lastly development of a clearing house to further centralised access to the above. We argue that commitment to best-practice would allow greater sharing of MGR for research and extensive secondary use including conservation and environmental monitoring, and provide an exemplar for access and benefit-sharing (ABS) to inform the biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction (BBNJ) process.Copyright © 2019 Rabone, Harden-Davies, Collins, Zajderman, Appeltans, Droege, Brandt, Pardo-Lopez, Dahlgren, Glover and Horton. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms

The hyporheic zone as an invertebrate refuge: a review of variability in space, time, taxa and behaviour

The hyporheic zone is a potential refuge that can promote persistence of benthic invertebrates during adverse conditions in surface streams. For decades, changes in invertebrate depth distribution have been investigated in relation to flood, low flow and drying events, but evidence for use of the hyporheic refuge remains equivocal. This review examines the evidence for the hyporheic zone’s refugial role during adverse hydrological conditions. Refuge potential is influenced by determinants in four categories. First, refuge use varies spatially in relation to physical habitat parameters, including sediment porosity and hydrologic exchange. Second, refuge use is temporally variable and reflects disturbance characteristics including rate of onset. Third, refuge use is taxon-specific, depending on a range of morphological, behavioural and physiological traits. Fourth, the behaviours governing refuge use vary, with both active migrations and passive habitat use playing important roles in community persistence. These four determinants interact to influence refuge use; for example, the physical habitat providing an adequate refuge will vary between taxa. Despite this variability, the hyporheic zone is an important component in the suite of refuges that facilitate community resilience to disturbance events. As such, its ecological integrity should be safeguarded through sensitive management and effective rehabilitation schemes

Genetic Population Structure in the Antarctic Benthos: Insights from the Widespread Amphipod, Orchomenella franklini

Currently there is very limited understanding of genetic population structure in the Antarctic benthos. We conducted one of the first studies of microsatellite variation in an Antarctic benthic invertebrate, using the ubiquitous amphipod Orchomenella franklini (Walker, 1903). Seven microsatellite loci were used to assess genetic structure on three spatial scales: sites (100 s of metres), locations (1–10 kilometres) and regions (1000 s of kilometres) sampled in East Antarctica at Casey and Davis stations. Considerable genetic diversity was revealed, which varied between the two regions and also between polluted and unpolluted sites. Genetic differentiation among all populations was highly significant (FST = 0.086, RST = 0.139, p<0.001) consistent with the brooding mode of development in O. franklini. Hierarchical AMOVA revealed that the majority of the genetic subdivision occurred across the largest geographical scale, with Nem≈1 suggesting insufficient gene flow to prevent independent evolution of the two regions, i.e., Casey and Davis are effectively isolated. Isolation by distance was detected at smaller scales and indicates that gene flow in O. franklini occurs primarily through stepping-stone dispersal. Three of the microsatellite loci showed signs of selection, providing evidence that localised adaptation may occur within the Antarctic benthos. These results provide insights into processes of speciation in Antarctic brooders, and will help inform the design of spatial management initiatives recently endorsed for the Antarctic benthos

Creating and curating an archive: Bury St Edmunds and its Anglo-Saxon past

This contribution explores the mechanisms by which the Benedictine foundation of Bury St Edmunds sought to legitimise and preserve their spurious pre-Conquest privileges and holdings throughout the Middle Ages. The archive is extraordinary in terms of the large number of surviving registers and cartularies which contain copies of Anglo-Saxon charters, many of which are wholly or partly in Old English. The essay charts the changing use to which these ancient documents were put in response to threats to the foundation's continued enjoyment of its liberties. The focus throughout the essay is to demonstrate how pragmatic considerations at every stage affects the development of the archive and the ways in which these linguistically challenging texts were presented, re-presented, and represented during the Abbey’s history

Biomonitoring, and the macroinvertebrate faunas of Canterbury streams.

A wide-ranging macroinvertebrate and physico-chemical survey of 230 3rd and 4th order streams throughout the Canterbury region was conducted between November 1999 and March 2000. Kick-net sampling, spot water sampling and habitat surveys were used. Invertebrate community composition appeared to be influenced by two overriding factors; the physical condition of the stream, and the amount of anthropogenic development within the catchment. Faunas dominated by Ephemeroptera and Trichoptera and with some Plecoptera present tended to occur in pristine high altitude streams with low conductivity, well vegetated riparian zones, heterogeneous streambed substrates and periphyton consisting primarily of diatom biofilms. Faunas dominated by Crustacea, Oligochaeta and Chironomidae occurred commonly at degraded lowland sites with high conductivity, little or no riparian vegetation, more homogeneous fine substrates and periphyton dominated by thick mats and filaments. Between these two extremes, gradual change in faunas was found, with Trichoptera dominating intermediately disturbed sites. A striking decrease in the relative abundance of Ephemeroptera along an ecological gradient appeared to be associated with increasing intensity of landuse. A comparative investigation of three biotic indices widely used in New Zealand for assessing stream health, indicated that the MCI, OMCI and SOMCI may not assess the health of all sites, consistently. The inconsistencies were probably brought about by two factors. Firstly, presence-absence data used in calculating the MCI may not detect subtle differences in community structure, whereas the quantitative data used by the OMCI and SOMCI may pick up small differences and therefore group sites into different degradation bands. Secondly, published degradation bands for the MCI, OMCI and SOMCI do not appear to be directly comparable in Canterbury. The utility of a quantitative MCI with low-level (order, class, phylum) identification was also investigated, and found to be a potentially viable alternative to the MCI and its derivatives when a low-cost, rapid assessment technique is needed, but expertise in identification is lacking. The health of streams in the Canterbury region as assessed by the MCI, was investigated. The MCI indicated that streams were generally more healthy if they were further inland, at higher altitudes, and were in forested or unmodified catchments. Stream health was poorest in lowland sites with pastoral and urban/city developed catchments, although 42 pastoral sites with MCI values> 100 and taxonomic richness >25 indicated that healthy streams were attainable in agriculturally developed land. Finally, a multimetric approach for assessing the health of Banks Peninsula streams using macroinvertebrates was developed. Five biological metrics (OMCI, % EPT, % Chironomidae, % Mollusca, No. Ephemeroptera) that best discriminated selected reference sites from sites impaired by habitat disturbance and organic pollution were combined into an index of biological integrity; the Banks Peninsula Macroinvertebrate Index (BPMI). Strong relationships between the BPMI and MCI and OMCI suggested that the extra effort required to produce a multimetric index did not result in improved assessment of stream condition. However, a multimetric index can provide additional information on the source of degradation to a stream and indicate where restoration or mitigation should be focussed