Incompatibility of trends in multi-year estimates from the American Community Survey

The American Community Survey (ACS) provides one-year (1y), three-year (3y) and five-year (5y) multi-year estimates (MYEs) of various demographic and economic variables for each "community", although the 1y and 3y may not be available for communities with a small population. These survey estimates are not truly measuring the same quantities, since they each cover different time spans. Using some simplistic models, we demonstrate that comparing different period-length MYEs results in spurious conclusions about trend movements. A simple method utilizing weighted averages is presented that reduces the bias inherent in comparing trends of different MYEs. These weighted averages are nonparametric, require only a short span of data, and are designed to preserve polynomial characteristics of the time series that are relevant for trends. The basic method, which only requires polynomial algebra, is outlined and applied to ACS data. In some cases there is an improvement to comparability, although a final verdict must await additional ACS data. We draw the conclusion that MYE data is not comparable across different periods.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS259 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Global Change: A Biogeochemical Perspective

A research program that is designed to enhance our understanding of the Earth as the support system for life is described. The program change, both natural and anthropogenic, that might affect the habitability of the planet on a time scale roughly equal to that of a human life is studied. On this time scale the atmosphere, biosphere, and upper ocean are treated as a single coupled system. The need for understanding the processes affecting the distribution of essential nutrients--carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous, sulfur, and water--within this coupled system is examined. The importance of subtle interactions among chemical, biological, and physical effects is emphasized. The specific objectives are to define the present state of the planetary life-support system; to ellucidate the underlying physical, chemical, and biological controls; and to provide the body of knowledge required to assess changes that might impact the future habitability of the Earth

Dispersant Efficacy and Effectiveness

Dispersants have been researched extensively and used for oil spill mitigation for more than 40 years, yet there are opportunities to enhance our understanding, including with respect to their long term fate and effects and how to optimize dispersant use. For example, the 2005 National Academy of Sciences report, Understanding Oil Spill Dispersants: Efficacy and Effects, suggested a number of areas where increased understanding would help support the use of dispersants. Throughout the summer of 2010 dispersants were used in unprecedented quantities and, in the case of sub-sea application, with novel application methods following the Deepwater Horizon incident. The focus of this paper is to provide a brief overview of spilled oil behavior, chemical dispersants efficacy and effectiveness, and a discussion of the state of knowledge pre-, during, and post- Deepwater Horizon

Simulation, no problem, of course we offer this service! (observations on firms who have worked to make this true)

The paper focuses on the practical experiences of a number of professional firms striving to use simulation to deliver information of value to their clients. It exposes issues such as limitations in existing working practices and the mismatch between language routinely used by facilitators and trainees as well as their different expectations. The paper also discusses the differences observed between incremental implementation of simulation within practices and firms who wished to "jump in at the deep end". Lastly, it addresses the dilemma of how to move simulation tools into the already busy schedules and overloaded programmes of design practices successfully

Computer-intensive rate estimation, diverging statistics and scanning

A general rate estimation method is proposed that is based on studying the in-sample evolution of appropriately chosen diverging/converging statistics. The proposed rate estimators are based on simple least squares arguments, and are shown to be accurate in a very general setting without requiring the choice of a tuning parameter. The notion of scanning is introduced with the purpose of extracting useful subsamples of the data series; the proposed rate estimation method is applied to different scans, and the resulting estimators are then combined to improve accuracy. Applications to heavy tail index estimation as well as to the problem of estimating the long memory parameter are discussed; a small simulation study complements our theoretical results.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053607000000064 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

CELSS and regenerative life support for manned missions to MARS

In the mid 1990's, the space station will become a point from which inter-planetary vehicles can be launched. The practicalities of a manned Mars mission are now being studied, along with some newer concepts for human life support. Specifically, the use of organisms such as plants and algae as the basis for life support systems is now being actively considered. A Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) is composed of several facilities: (1) to grow photosynthetic plants or algae which will produce food, oxygen and potable water, and remove carbon dioxide exhaled by a crew; (2) to process biomass into food; (3) to oxidize organic wastes into CO2; and (4) to maintain system operation and stability. Such a system, when compared to using materials stored at launch, may have distinct weight and cost advantages, depending upon crew size and mission duration, as well as psychological benefits for the crew. The use of the system during transit, as well as in establishing a re-visitable surface camp, will increase the attractiveness of the CELSS concept for life support on interplanetary missions

SPE water electrolyzers in support of the lunar outpost

During the 1970s, the SPE water electrolyzer, which uses ion exchange membranes as its sole electrolyte, was developed for nuclear submarine metabolic oxygen production. These developments included SPE water electrolyzer operation at up to 3,000 psia and at current densities in excess of 1,000 amps per square foot. The SPE water electrolyzer system is now fully qualified for both the U.S. and U.K. Navies with tens of thousands of system hours accumulated at sea. During the 1980s, the basic SPE water electrolyzer cell structure developed for the Navies was incorporated into several demonstrations for NASA's Space Station Program. Among these were: the SPE regenerative fuel cell for electrical energy storage; the SPE water electrolyzer for metabolic oxygen production; and the high pressure SPE water electrolyzer for reboost propulsion reactant production. In the 1990s, one emphasis will be the development of SPE water electrolyzers for the Lunar Outposts Currently defined potential Lunar Outpost applications for the SPE water electrolyzer include: SPE water electrolyzers for metabolic oxygen and potable water production from reclaimed water; and SPE water electrolyzers operating at high pressure as part of stationary and mobile surface energy storage systems

Stable marked point processes

In many contexts such as queuing theory, spatial statistics, geostatistics and meteorology, data are observed at irregular spatial positions. One model of this situation involves considering the observation points as generated by a Poisson process. Under this assumption, we study the limit behavior of the partial sums of the marked point process $\{(t_i,X(t_i))\}$, where X(t) is a stationary random field and the points t_i are generated from an independent Poisson random measure $\mathbb{N}$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$. We define the sample mean and sample variance statistics and determine their joint asymptotic behavior in a heavy-tailed setting, thus extending some finite variance results of Karr [Adv. in Appl. Probab. 18 (1986) 406--422]. New results on subsampling in the context of a marked point process are also presented, with the application of forming a confidence interval for the unknown mean under an unknown degree of heavy tails.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053606000001163 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The Effect of Attendance on Grade for First Year Economics Students in University College Cork

This paper examines the relationship between attendance and grade, controlling for other factors, in first year economics courses in University College Cork. Determinants of both class attendance and grade are specified and estimated. We find that attendance is low, at least by comparison with US evidence. Hours worked and travel time are among the factors affecting class attendance. Class attendance, and especially tutorial attendance has a positive and diminishing marginal effect on grade, while hours worked in a part-time job have a significant negative effect on grade.