Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The Relationship Between Therapist Effects and Therapy Delivery Factors: Therapy Modality, Dosage, and Non-completion.

To consider the relationships between, therapist variability, therapy modality, therapeutic dose and therapy ending type and assess their effects on the variability of patient outcomes. Multilevel modeling was used to analyse a large sample of routinely collected data. Model residuals identified more and less effective therapists, controlling for case-mix. After controlling for case mix, 5.8 % of the variance in outcome was due to therapists. More sessions generally improved outcomes, by about half a point on the PHQ-9 for each additional session, while non-completion of therapy reduced the amount of pre-post change by six points. Therapy modality had little effect on outcome. Patient and service outcomes may be improved by greater focus on the variability between therapists and in keeping patients in therapy to completion

Effect of extended morning fasting upon ad libitum lunch intake and associated metabolic and hormonal responses in obese adults

Background/Objectives: Breakfast omission is positively associated with obesity and increased risk of disease. However, little is known about the acute effects of extended morning fasting upon subsequent energy intake and associated metabolic/regulatory factors in obese adults. Subjects/Methods: In a randomised cross-over design, 24 obese men (n=8) and women (n=16) extended their overnight fast by omitting breakfast consumption or ingesting a typical carbohydrate-rich breakfast of 2183±393 kJ (521±94 kcal), before an ad libitum pasta lunch 3 h later. Blood samples were obtained throughout the day until 3 h post lunch and analysed for hormones implicated in appetite regulation, along with metabolic outcomes and subjective appetite measures. Results: Lunch intake was unaffected by extended morning fasting (difference=218 kJ, 95% confidence interval −54 kJ, 490 kJ; P=0.1) resulting in lower total intake in the fasting trial (difference=−1964 kJ, 95% confidence interval −1645 kJ, −2281 kJ; P<0.01). Systemic concentrations of peptide tyrosine–tyrosine and leptin were lower during the afternoon following morning fasting (Pless than or equal to0.06). Plasma-acylated ghrelin concentrations were also lower following the ad libitum lunch in the fasting trial (P<0.05) but this effect was not apparent for total ghrelin (Pgreater than or equal to0.1). Serum insulin concentrations were greater throughout the afternoon in the fasting trial (P=0.05), with plasma glucose also greater 1 h after lunch (P<0.01). Extended morning fasting did not result in greater appetite ratings after lunch, with some tendency for lower appetite 3 h post lunch (P=0.09). Conclusions: We demonstrate for the first time that, in obese adults, extended morning fasting does not cause compensatory intake during an ad libitum lunch nor does it increase appetite during the afternoon. Morning fasting reduced satiety hormone responses to a subsequent lunch meal but counterintuitively also reduced concentrations of the appetite-stimulating hormone-acylated ghrelin during the afternoon relative to lunch consumed after breakfast

A highly reactive precursor in the iron sulfide system

Iron sulfur (Fe–S) phases have been implicated in the emergence of life on early Earth due to their catalytic role in the synthesis of prebiotic molecules. Similarly, Fe–S phases are currently of high interest in the development of green catalysts and energy storage. Here we report the synthesis and structure of a nanoparticulate phase (FeSnano) that is a necessary solid-phase precursor to the conventionally assumed initial precipitate in the iron sulfide system, mackinawite. The structure of FeSnano contains tetrahedral iron, which is compensated by monosulfide and polysulfide sulfur species. These together dramatically affect the stability and enhance the reactivity of FeSnano

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe

Pan-cancer analysis of whole genomes

Cancer is driven by genetic change, and the advent of massively parallel sequencing has enabled systematic documentation of this variation at the whole-genome scale(1-3). Here we report the integrative analysis of 2,658 whole-cancer genomes and their matching normal tissues across 38 tumour types from the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium of the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We describe the generation of the PCAWG resource, facilitated by international data sharing using compute clouds. On average, cancer genomes contained 4-5 driver mutations when combining coding and non-coding genomic elements; however, in around 5% of cases no drivers were identified, suggesting that cancer driver discovery is not yet complete. Chromothripsis, in which many clustered structural variants arise in a single catastrophic event, is frequently an early event in tumour evolution; in acral melanoma, for example, these events precede most somatic point mutations and affect several cancer-associated genes simultaneously. Cancers with abnormal telomere maintenance often originate from tissues with low replicative activity and show several mechanisms of preventing telomere attrition to critical levels. Common and rare germline variants affect patterns of somatic mutation, including point mutations, structural variants and somatic retrotransposition. A collection of papers from the PCAWG Consortium describes non-coding mutations that drive cancer beyond those in the TERT promoter(4); identifies new signatures of mutational processes that cause base substitutions, small insertions and deletions and structural variation(5,6); analyses timings and patterns of tumour evolution(7); describes the diverse transcriptional consequences of somatic mutation on splicing, expression levels, fusion genes and promoter activity(8,9); and evaluates a range of more-specialized features of cancer genomes(8,10-18).Peer reviewe