Unemployment (Fears) and Deflationary Spirals

The interaction of incomplete markets and sticky nominal wages is shown to magnify business cycles even though these two features—in isolation—dampen them. During recessions, fears of unemployment stir up precautionary sentiments that induce agents to save more. The additional savings may be used as investments in both a productive asset (equity) and an unproductive nominal liquid asset. The desire to hold the nominal liquid asset puts deflationary pressure on the economy which, provided that nominal wages are sticky, increases labor costs, and reduces firm profits. Lower profits repress the desire to save in equity, which increases (the fear of) unemployment, and so on. This mechanism causes the model to behave differently from its complete markets version and is quantitatively important even if monetary policy counteracts the desire to hold more of the liquid asset by lowering the interest rate. The deflationary pressure yields a mean-reverting reduction in the price level, which implies an increase in expected inflation and a decrease in the expected real interest rate even if the policy rate does not adjust. Thus, our mechanism is different from the typical zero lower bound argument. Due to the deflationary spiral, our model also behaves differently from its incomplete market version without aggregate uncertainty, especially in terms of the impact of unemployment insurance on average employment levels.Den Haan and Riegler gratefully acknowledge support through the grant “Working Towards a Stable and Sustainable Growth Path,” funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC). Rendahl and Riegler gratefully acknowledge financial support from the ADEMU project, “A Dynamic Economic and Monetary Union,” funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Program under grant agreement No 649396. Rendahl also gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET). Rendahl is a Research Affiliate at CEPR

Unraveling the heterogeneity of sarcoma survivors’ health-related quality of life regarding primary sarcoma location: Results from the Survsarc study

Simple SummarySarcomas are a rare group of heterogenous tumors that can develop anywhere in the body. Currently, studies on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) focus on sarcomas of the arm and leg or have too small sample sizes to examine the heterogeneity between different sarcoma locations, leading to limited insight into HRQoL of survivors with specific sarcoma locations. The aim of this study was to assess differences in HRQoL and examine treatment-specific HRQoL issues per sarcoma location. We found, in a population of 1099 sarcoma survivors, different patterns of HRQoL according to primary sarcoma location and a high number of additional, unique treatment-specific HRQoL issues per location, which were not captured with the general HRQoL questionnaire used in cancer patients. This indicates that the currently used HRQoL measures are too generic to capture all sarcoma-related issues, emphasizing the necessity for a comprehensive sarcoma-specific HRQoL measurement strategy.Sarcoma patients experience physical and psychological symptoms, depending on age of onset, subtype, treatment, stage, and location of the sarcoma, which can adversely affect patients' health-related quality of life (HRQoL). This study aimed to unravel the heterogeneity of sarcoma survivors' HRQoL regarding primary sarcoma location. A cross-sectional study was conducted among Dutch sarcoma survivors (N = 1099) aged &gt;= 18, diagnosed 2-10 years ago. Primary sarcoma locations were head and neck, chest, abdominal including retroperitoneal, pelvis including urogenital organs, axial skeleton, extremities (upper and lower), breast, skin and other locations. The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer-Quality of Life Questionnaire (EORTC QLQ)-C30 was used to measure HRQoL accompanied by treatment-specific HRQoL questions. Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were collected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Axial skeleton sarcomas had the lowest functioning levels and highest symptoms compared to other locations. Skin sarcomas had the highest functioning levels and lowest symptoms on most scales. Bone sarcomas scored worse on several HRQoL domains compared to soft tissue sarcomas. High prevalence of treatment-specific HRQoL issues were found per location. In conclusion, sarcomas can present everywhere, which is reflected by different HRQoL outcomes according to primary sarcoma location. The currently used HRQoL measure lacks treatment-specific questions and is too generic to capture all sarcoma-related issues, emphasizing the necessity for a comprehensive sarcoma-specific HRQoL measurement strategy.</p

CD8+ DC, but Not CD8−DC, Isolated from BCG-Infected Mice Reduces Pathological Reactions Induced by Mycobacterial Challenge Infection

Tuberculosis is a mycobacterial infection causing worldwide public health problems but the available vaccine is far from ideal. Type-1 T cell immunity has been shown to be critical for host defence against tuberculosis infection, but the role of dendritic cell (DC) subsets in pathogenesis of mycobacterial infection remains unclear.We examined the effectiveness of dendritic cell (DC) subsets in BCG-infected mice in generating immune responses beneficial for pathogen clearance and reduction of pathological reactions in the tissues following challenge infection. Our data showed that only the adoptive transfer of the subset of CD8alpha+ DC isolated from infected mice (iCD8+ DC) generated significant protection, demonstrated by less mycobacterial growth and pathological changes in the lung and liver tissues in iCD8+ DC recipients than sham-treated control mice. The adoptive transfer of the CD8alpha(-)DC from the infected mice (iCD8(-) DC) not only failed to reduce bacterial growth, but enhanced inflammation characterized by diffuse heavy cellular infiltration. Notably, iCD8(-) DC produced significantly higher levels of IL-10 than iCD8+ DC and promoted more Th2 cytokine responses in in vitro DC-T cell co-culture and in vivo adoptive transfer experiments.The data indicate that in vivo BCG-primed CD8+ DC is the dominant DC subset in inducing protective immunity especially for reducing pathological reactions in infected tissues. The finding has implications for the rational improvement of the prophylactic and therapeutic approaches for controlling tuberculosis infection and related diseases

Assessment of predictive models for chlorophyll-a concentration of a tropical lake

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study assesses four predictive ecological models; Fuzzy Logic (FL), Recurrent Artificial Neural Network (RANN), Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm (HEA) and multiple linear regressions (MLR) to forecast chlorophyll- a concentration using limnological data from 2001 through 2004 of unstratified shallow, oligotrophic to mesotrophic tropical Putrajaya Lake (Malaysia). Performances of the models are assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (r), and Area under the Receiving Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Chlorophyll-a have been used to estimate algal biomass in aquatic ecosystem as it is common in most algae. Algal biomass indicates of the trophic status of a water body. Chlorophyll- a therefore, is an effective indicator for monitoring eutrophication which is a common problem of lakes and reservoirs all over the world. Assessments of these predictive models are necessary towards developing a reliable algorithm to estimate chlorophyll- a concentration for eutrophication management of tropical lakes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Same data set was used for models development and the data was divided into two sets; training and testing to avoid biasness in results. FL and RANN models were developed using parameters selected through sensitivity analysis. The selected variables were water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen and Secchi depth. Dissolved oxygen, selected through stepwise procedure, was used to develop the MLR model. HEA model used parameters selected using genetic algorithm (GA). The selected parameters were pH, Secchi depth, dissolved oxygen and nitrate nitrogen. RMSE, r, and AUC values for MLR model were (4.60, 0.5, and 0.76), FL model were (4.49, 0.6, and 0.84), RANN model were (4.28, 0.7, and 0.79) and HEA model were (4.27, 0.7, and 0.82) respectively. Performance inconsistencies between four models in terms of performance criteria in this study resulted from the methodology used in measuring the performance. RMSE is based on the level of error of prediction whereas AUC is based on binary classification task.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Overall, HEA produced the best performance in terms of RMSE, r, and AUC values. This was followed by FL, RANN, and MLR.</p

Pan-cancer analysis of whole genomes

Cancer is driven by genetic change, and the advent of massively parallel sequencing has enabled systematic documentation of this variation at the whole-genome scale(1-3). Here we report the integrative analysis of 2,658 whole-cancer genomes and their matching normal tissues across 38 tumour types from the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium of the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We describe the generation of the PCAWG resource, facilitated by international data sharing using compute clouds. On average, cancer genomes contained 4-5 driver mutations when combining coding and non-coding genomic elements; however, in around 5% of cases no drivers were identified, suggesting that cancer driver discovery is not yet complete. Chromothripsis, in which many clustered structural variants arise in a single catastrophic event, is frequently an early event in tumour evolution; in acral melanoma, for example, these events precede most somatic point mutations and affect several cancer-associated genes simultaneously. Cancers with abnormal telomere maintenance often originate from tissues with low replicative activity and show several mechanisms of preventing telomere attrition to critical levels. Common and rare germline variants affect patterns of somatic mutation, including point mutations, structural variants and somatic retrotransposition. A collection of papers from the PCAWG Consortium describes non-coding mutations that drive cancer beyond those in the TERT promoter(4); identifies new signatures of mutational processes that cause base substitutions, small insertions and deletions and structural variation(5,6); analyses timings and patterns of tumour evolution(7); describes the diverse transcriptional consequences of somatic mutation on splicing, expression levels, fusion genes and promoter activity(8,9); and evaluates a range of more-specialized features of cancer genomes(8,10-18).Peer reviewe

Inefficient continuation decisions, job creation costs, and the cost of business cycles

This paper develops a model according to which the costs of business cycles are nontrivial because they reduce the average level of output. The reason is an interaction between job creation costs and an agency problem. The agency problem triggers separations during economic downturns even though both the employer and the worker would be better off if the job was not discontinued, that is, affected jobs have strictly positive surplus values. Similarly, booms make it possible for more jobs to overcome the agency problem. These effects do not offset each other, because business cycles reduce the expected job duration for these jobs. With positive job creation costs, business cycles then reduce the creation of valuable jobs and lower average activity levels. Considering a wide range of parameter values, we find estimates for the cost of business cycles ranging from 2.03% to 12.7% of gross domestic product