Forecasting daily attendances at an emergency department to aid resource planning

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Accurate forecasting of emergency department (ED) attendances can be a valuable tool for micro and macro level planning.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data for analysis was the counts of daily patient attendances at the ED of an acute care regional general hospital from July 2005 to Mar 2008. Patients were stratified into three acuity categories; i.e. P1, P2 and P3, with P1 being the most acute and P3 being the least acute. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method was separately applied to each of the three acuity categories and total patient attendances. Independent variables included in the model were public holiday (yes or no), ambient air quality measured by pollution standard index (PSI), daily ambient average temperature and daily relative humidity. The seasonal components of weekly and yearly periodicities in the time series of daily attendances were also studied. Univariate analysis by t-tests and multivariate time series analysis were carried out in SPSS version 15.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>By time series analyses, P1 attendances did not show any weekly or yearly periodicity and was only predicted by ambient air quality of PSI > 50. P2 and total attendances showed weekly periodicities, and were also significantly predicted by public holiday. P3 attendances were significantly correlated with day of the week, month of the year, public holiday, and ambient air quality of PSI > 50.</p> <p>After applying the developed models to validate the forecast, the MAPE of prediction by the models were 16.8%, 6.7%, 8.6% and 4.8% for P1, P2, P3 and total attendances, respectively. The models were able to account for most of the significant autocorrelations present in the data.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Time series analysis has been shown to provide a useful, readily available tool for predicting emergency department workload that can be used to plan staff roster and resource planning.</p

Results of a pilot study on the involvement of bilateral inferior frontal gyri in emotional prosody perception: an rTMS study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The right hemisphere may play an important role in paralinguistic features such as the emotional melody in speech. The extent of this involvement however is unclear. Imaging studies have shown involvement of both left and right inferior frontal gyri in emotional prosody perception. The present pilot study examined whether these brain areas are critically involved in the processing of emotional prosody and of semantics in 9 healthy subjects. Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation was used with a coil centred over left and right inferior frontal gyri, as localized by neuronavigation based on the subject's MRI. A sham condition was included. An online-TMS approach was applied; an emotional language task was completed during stimulation. This computerized task consisted of sentences pronounced by actors. In the semantics condition an emotion (fear, anger or neutral) was expressed in the content pronounced with a neutral intonation. In the prosody condition the emotion was expressed in the intonation, while the content was neutral.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Reaction times on the emotional prosody task condition were significantly longer after rTMS over both the right and the left inferior frontal gyrus as compared to sham stimulation and after controlling for learning effects associated with order of condition. When taking all emotions together, there was no difference in effect on reaction times between the right and left stimulation. For the emotion Fear, reaction times were significantly longer after stimulating the left inferior frontal gyrus as compared to the right inferior frontal gyrus. Reaction times in the semantics task condition were not significantly different between the three TMS conditions.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The data indicate a critical involvement of both the right and the left inferior frontal gyrus in emotional prosody perception. The findings of this pilot study need replication. Future studies should include more subjects and examine whether the left and right inferior frontal gyrus play a differential role and complement each other, e.g. in the integrated processing of linguistic and prosodic aspects of speech, respectively.</p

Effect of praziquantel treatment of Schistosoma mansoni during pregnancy on intensity of infection and antibody responses to schistosome antigens: results of a randomised, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Praziquantel treatment of schistosomiasis during pregnancy was only recommended in 2002; hence the effects of treatment during pregnancy are not fully known. We have therefore evaluated the effects on infection intensity and the immunological effects of praziquantel treatment against Schistosoma mansoni during pregnancy, compared with treatment after delivery. METHODS: A nested cohort of 387 Schistosoma mansoni infected women was recruited within a larger trial of de-worming during pregnancy. Women were randomised to receive praziquantel or placebo during pregnancy. All women were treated after delivery. Infection intensity after treatment was assessed by a single Kato-Katz examination of stool samples with duplicate slides and categorised as undetected, light (1-99 eggs per gram (epg)), moderate (100-399 epg) or heavy (>or=400 epg). Antibodies against S. mansoni worm and egg antigens were measured by ELISA. Results were compared between women first treated during pregnancy and women first treated after delivery. RESULTS: At enrollment, 252 (65.1%) of the women had light infection (median (IQR) epg: 35 (11, 59)), 75 (19.3%) moderate (median (IQR) epg: 179(131, 227)) and 60 (15.5%) had heavy infection (median (IQR) epg: 749 (521, 1169)) with S. mansoni. At six weeks after praziquantel treatment during pregnancy S. mansoni infection was not detectable in 81.9% of the women and prevalence and intensity had decreased to 11.8% light, 4.7% moderate and 1.6% heavy a similar reduction when compared with those first treated after delivery (undetected (88.5%), light (10.6%), moderate (0.9%) and heavy (0%), p = 0.16). Parasite specific antibody levels were lower during pregnancy than after delivery. Praziquantel treatment during pregnancy boosted anti-worm IgG isotypes and to a lesser extent IgE, but these boosts were less pronounced than in women whose treatment was delayed until after delivery. Praziquantel had limited effects on antibodies against egg antigens. CONCLUSION: S mansoni antigen-specific antibody levels and praziquantel-induced boosts in antibody levels were broadly suppressed during pregnancy, but this was not associated with major reduction in the efficacy of praziquantel. Long-term implications of these findings in relation to resistance to re-infection remain to be explored

Coupling of CFD and semiempirical methods for designing three-phase condensate separator: case study and experimental validation

This study presents an approach to determine the dimensions of three-phase separators. First, we designed different vessel configurations based on the fluid properties of an Iranian gas condensate field. We then used a comprehensive computational fluid dynamic (CFD) method for analyzing the three-phase separation phenomena. For simulation purposes, the combined volume of fluid–discrete particle method (DPM) approach was used. The discrete random walk (DRW) model was used to include the effect of arbitrary particle movement due to variations caused by turbulence. In addition, the comparison of experimental and simulated results was generated using different turbulence models, i.e., standard k–ε, standard k–ω, and Reynolds stress model. The results of numerical calculations in terms of fluid profiles, separation performance and DPM particle behavior were used to choose the optimum vessel configuration. No difference between the dimensions of the optimum vessel and the existing separator was found. Also, simulation data were compared with experimental data pertaining to a similar existing separator. A reasonable agreement between the results of numerical calculation and experimental data was observed. These results showed that the used CFD model is well capable of investigating the performance of a three-phase separator

A systematic review of the safety of topical therapies for atopic dermatitis

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75613/1/j.1365-2133.2006.07538.x.pd

An overview of NMR-based metabolomics to identify secondary plant compounds involved in host plant resistance

Secondary metabolites provide a potential source for the generation of host plant resistance and development of biopesticides. This is especially important in view of the rapid and vast spread of agricultural and horticultural pests worldwide. Multiple pests control tactics in the framework of an integrated pest management (IPM) programme are necessary. One important strategy of IPM is the use of chemical host plant resistance. Up to now the study of chemical host plant resistance has, for technical reasons, been restricted to the identification of single compounds applying specific chemical analyses adapted to the compound in question. In biological processes however, usually more than one compound is involved. Metabolomics allows the simultaneous detection of a wide range of compounds, providing an immediate image of the metabolome of a plant. One of the most universally used metabolomic approaches comprises nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR). It has been NMR which has been applied as a proof of principle to show that metabolomics can constitute a major advancement in the study of host plant resistance. Here we give an overview on the application of NMR to identify candidate compounds for host plant resistance. We focus on host plant resistance to western flower thrips (Frankliniella occidentalis) which has been used as a model for different plant species

A922 Sequential measurement of 1 hour creatinine clearance (1-CRCL) in critically ill patients at risk of acute kidney injury (AKI)

Meeting abstrac

Systematic Review of Potential Health Risks Posed by Pharmaceutical, Occupational and Consumer Exposures to Metallic and Nanoscale Aluminum, Aluminum Oxides, Aluminum Hydroxide and Its Soluble Salts

Aluminum (Al) is a ubiquitous substance encountered both naturally (as the third most abundant element) and intentionally (used in water, foods, pharmaceuticals, and vaccines); it is also present in ambient and occupational airborne particulates. Existing data underscore the importance of Al physical and chemical forms in relation to its uptake, accumulation, and systemic bioavailability. The present review represents a systematic examination of the peer-reviewed literature on the adverse health effects of Al materials published since a previous critical evaluation compiled by Krewski et al. (2007). Challenges encountered in carrying out the present review reflected the experimental use of different physical and chemical Al forms, different routes of administration, and different target organs in relation to the magnitude, frequency, and duration of exposure. Wide variations in diet can result in Al intakes that are often higher than the World Health Organization provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI), which is based on studies with Al citrate. Comparing daily dietary Al exposures on the basis of “total Al”assumes that gastrointestinal bioavailability for all dietary Al forms is equivalent to that for Al citrate, an approach that requires validation. Current occupational exposure limits (OELs) for identical Al substances vary as much as 15-fold. The toxicity of different Al forms depends in large measure on their physical behavior and relative solubility in water. The toxicity of soluble Al forms depends upon the delivered dose of Al+ 3 to target tissues. Trivalent Al reacts with water to produce bidentate superoxide coordination spheres [Al(O2)(H2O4)+ 2 and Al(H2O)6 + 3] that after complexation with O2•−, generate Al superoxides [Al(O2•)](H2O5)]+ 2. Semireduced AlO2• radicals deplete mitochondrial Fe and promote generation of H2O2, O2 • − and OH•. Thus, it is the Al+ 3-induced formation of oxygen radicals that accounts for the oxidative damage that leads to intrinsic apoptosis. In contrast, the toxicity of the insoluble Al oxides depends primarily on their behavior as particulates. Aluminum has been held responsible for human morbidity and mortality, but there is no consistent and convincing evidence to associate the Al found in food and drinking water at the doses and chemical forms presently consumed by people living in North America and Western Europe with increased risk for Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD). Neither is there clear evidence to show use of Al-containing underarm antiperspirants or cosmetics increases the risk of AD or breast cancer. Metallic Al, its oxides, and common Al salts have not been shown to be either genotoxic or carcinogenic. Aluminum exposures during neonatal and pediatric parenteral nutrition (PN) can impair bone mineralization and delay neurological development. Adverse effects to vaccines with Al adjuvants have occurred; however, recent controlled trials found that the immunologic response to certain vaccines with Al adjuvants was no greater, and in some cases less than, that after identical vaccination without Al adjuvants. The scientific literature on the adverse health effects of Al is extensive. Health risk assessments for Al must take into account individual co-factors (e.g., age, renal function, diet, gastric pH). Conclusions from the current review point to the need for refinement of the PTWI, reduction of Al contamination in PN solutions, justification for routine addition of Al to vaccines, and harmonization of OELs for Al substances

Pan-cancer analysis of whole genomes

Cancer is driven by genetic change, and the advent of massively parallel sequencing has enabled systematic documentation of this variation at the whole-genome scale(1-3). Here we report the integrative analysis of 2,658 whole-cancer genomes and their matching normal tissues across 38 tumour types from the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium of the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We describe the generation of the PCAWG resource, facilitated by international data sharing using compute clouds. On average, cancer genomes contained 4-5 driver mutations when combining coding and non-coding genomic elements; however, in around 5% of cases no drivers were identified, suggesting that cancer driver discovery is not yet complete. Chromothripsis, in which many clustered structural variants arise in a single catastrophic event, is frequently an early event in tumour evolution; in acral melanoma, for example, these events precede most somatic point mutations and affect several cancer-associated genes simultaneously. Cancers with abnormal telomere maintenance often originate from tissues with low replicative activity and show several mechanisms of preventing telomere attrition to critical levels. Common and rare germline variants affect patterns of somatic mutation, including point mutations, structural variants and somatic retrotransposition. A collection of papers from the PCAWG Consortium describes non-coding mutations that drive cancer beyond those in the TERT promoter(4); identifies new signatures of mutational processes that cause base substitutions, small insertions and deletions and structural variation(5,6); analyses timings and patterns of tumour evolution(7); describes the diverse transcriptional consequences of somatic mutation on splicing, expression levels, fusion genes and promoter activity(8,9); and evaluates a range of more-specialized features of cancer genomes(8,10-18).Peer reviewe