Modeling emergency department visit patterns for infectious disease complaints: results and application to disease surveillance

BACKGROUND: Concern over bio-terrorism has led to recognition that traditional public health surveillance for specific conditions is unlikely to provide timely indication of some disease outbreaks, either naturally occurring or induced by a bioweapon. In non-traditional surveillance, the use of health care resources are monitored in "near real" time for the first signs of an outbreak, such as increases in emergency department (ED) visits for respiratory, gastrointestinal or neurological chief complaints (CC). METHODS: We collected ED CCs from 2/1/94 – 5/31/02 as a training set. A first-order model was developed for each of seven CC categories by accounting for long-term, day-of-week, and seasonal effects. We assessed predictive performance on subsequent data from 6/1/02 – 5/31/03, compared CC counts to predictions and confidence limits, and identified anomalies (simulated and real). RESULTS: Each CC category exhibited significant day-of-week differences. For most categories, counts peaked on Monday. There were seasonal cycles in both respiratory and undifferentiated infection complaints and the season-to-season variability in peak date was summarized using a hierarchical model. For example, the average peak date for respiratory complaints was January 22, with a season-to-season standard deviation of 12 days. This season-to-season variation makes it challenging to predict respiratory CCs so we focused our effort and discussion on prediction performance for this difficult category. Total ED visits increased over the study period by 4%, but respiratory complaints decreased by roughly 20%, illustrating that long-term averages in the data set need not reflect future behavior in data subsets. CONCLUSION: We found that ED CCs provided timely indicators for outbreaks. Our approach led to successful identification of a respiratory outbreak one-to-two weeks in advance of reports from the state-wide sentinel flu surveillance and of a reported increase in positive laboratory test results

Confirmation of beach accretion by grain-size trend analysis: Camposoto beach, Cádiz, SW Spain

An application of the grain size trend analysis (GSTA) is used in an exploratory approach to characterize sediment transport on Camposoto beach (Cádiz, SW Spain). In May 2009 the mesotidal beach showed a well-developed swash bar on the upper foreshore, which was associated with fair-weather conditions prevailing just before and during the field survey. The results were tested by means of an autocorrelation statistical test (index I of Moran). Two sedimentological trends were recognized, i.e. development towards finer, better sorted and more negatively skewed sediment (FB–), and towards finer, better sorted and less negatively or more positively skewed sediment (FB+). Both vector fields were compared with results obtained from more classical approaches (sand tracers, microtopography and current measurements). This revealed that both trends can be considered as realistic, the FB+ trend being identified for the first time in a beach environment. The data demonstrate that, on the well-developed swash bar, sediment transported onshore becomes both finer and better sorted towards the coast. On the lower foreshore, which exhibits a steeper slope produced by breaking waves, the higherenergy processes winnow out finer particles and thereby produce negatively skewed grain-size distributions. The upper foreshore, which has a flatter and smoother slope, is controlled by lower-energy swash-backwash and overwash processes. As a result, the skewness of the grain-size distributions evolves towards less negative or more positive values. The skewness parameter appears to be distributed as a function of the beach slope and, thus, reflects variations in hydrodynamic energy. This has novel implications for coastal management

Postoperative Adverse Outcomes in Intellectually Disabled Surgical Patients: A Nationwide Population-Based Study

Intellectually disabled patients have various comorbidities, but their risks of adverse surgical outcomes have not been examined. This study assesses pre-existing comorbidities, adjusted risks of postoperative major morbidities and mortality in intellectually disabled surgical patients.A nationwide population-based study was conducted in patients who underwent inpatient major surgery in Taiwan between 2004 and 2007. Four controls for each patient were randomly selected from the National Health Insurance Research Database. Preoperative major comorbidities, postoperative major complications and 30-day in-hospital mortality were compared between patients with and without intellectual disability. Use of medical services also was analyzed. Adjusted odds ratios using multivariate logistic regression analyses with 95% confidence intervals were applied to verify intellectual disability's impact.Controls were compared with 3983 surgical patients with intellectual disability. Risks for postoperative major complications were increased in patients with intellectual disability, including acute renal failure (odds ratio 3.81, 95% confidence interval 2.28 to 6.37), pneumonia (odds ratio 2.01, 1.61 to 2.49), postoperative bleeding (odds ratio 1.35, 1.09 to 1.68) and septicemia (odds ratio 2.43, 1.85 to 3.21) without significant differences in overall mortality. Disability severity was positively correlated with postoperative septicemia risk. Medical service use was also significantly higher in surgical patients with intellectual disability.Intellectual disability significantly increases the risk of overall major complications after major surgery. Our findings show a need for integrated and revised protocols for postoperative management to improve care for intellectually disabled surgical patients

Genome-Wide Association Studies of Serum Magnesium, Potassium, and Sodium Concentrations Identify Six Loci Influencing Serum Magnesium Levels

Magnesium, potassium, and sodium, cations commonly measured in serum, are involved in many physiological processes including energy metabolism, nerve and muscle function, signal transduction, and fluid and blood pressure regulation. To evaluate the contribution of common genetic variation to normal physiologic variation in serum concentrations of these cations, we conducted genome-wide association studies of serum magnesium, potassium, and sodium concentrations using ∼2.5 million genotyped and imputed common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 15,366 participants of European descent from the international CHARGE Consortium. Study-specific results were combined using fixed-effects inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis. SNPs demonstrating genome-wide significant (p<5×10−8) or suggestive associations (p<4×10−7) were evaluated for replication in an additional 8,463 subjects of European descent. The association of common variants at six genomic regions (in or near MUC1, ATP2B1, DCDC5, TRPM6, SHROOM3, and MDS1) with serum magnesium levels was genome-wide significant when meta-analyzed with the replication dataset. All initially significant SNPs from the CHARGE Consortium showed nominal association with clinically defined hypomagnesemia, two showed association with kidney function, two with bone mineral density, and one of these also associated with fasting glucose levels. Common variants in CNNM2, a magnesium transporter studied only in model systems to date, as well as in CNNM3 and CNNM4, were also associated with magnesium concentrations in this study. We observed no associations with serum sodium or potassium levels exceeding p<4×10−7. Follow-up studies of newly implicated genomic loci may provide additional insights into the regulation and homeostasis of human serum magnesium levels

Persistent Place-Making in Prehistory: the Creation, Maintenance, and Transformation of an Epipalaeolithic Landscape

Most archaeological projects today integrate, at least to some degree, how past people engaged with their surroundings, including both how they strategized resource use, organized technological production, or scheduled movements within a physical environment, as well as how they constructed cosmologies around or created symbolic connections to places in the landscape. However, there are a multitude of ways in which archaeologists approach the creation, maintenance, and transformation of human-landscape interrelationships. This paper explores some of these approaches for reconstructing the Epipalaeolithic (ca. 23,000–11,500&nbsp;years BP) landscape of Southwest Asia, using macro- and microscale geoarchaeological approaches to examine how everyday practices leave traces of human-landscape interactions in northern and eastern Jordan. The case studies presented here demonstrate that these Epipalaeolithic groups engaged in complex and far-reaching social landscapes. Examination of the Early and Middle Epipalaeolithic (EP) highlights that the notion of “Neolithization” is somewhat misleading as many of the features we use to define this transition were already well-established patterns of behavior by the Neolithic. Instead, these features and practices were enacted within a hunter-gatherer world and worldview

Pan-cancer analysis of whole genomes

Cancer is driven by genetic change, and the advent of massively parallel sequencing has enabled systematic documentation of this variation at the whole-genome scale(1-3). Here we report the integrative analysis of 2,658 whole-cancer genomes and their matching normal tissues across 38 tumour types from the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium of the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We describe the generation of the PCAWG resource, facilitated by international data sharing using compute clouds. On average, cancer genomes contained 4-5 driver mutations when combining coding and non-coding genomic elements; however, in around 5% of cases no drivers were identified, suggesting that cancer driver discovery is not yet complete. Chromothripsis, in which many clustered structural variants arise in a single catastrophic event, is frequently an early event in tumour evolution; in acral melanoma, for example, these events precede most somatic point mutations and affect several cancer-associated genes simultaneously. Cancers with abnormal telomere maintenance often originate from tissues with low replicative activity and show several mechanisms of preventing telomere attrition to critical levels. Common and rare germline variants affect patterns of somatic mutation, including point mutations, structural variants and somatic retrotransposition. A collection of papers from the PCAWG Consortium describes non-coding mutations that drive cancer beyond those in the TERT promoter(4); identifies new signatures of mutational processes that cause base substitutions, small insertions and deletions and structural variation(5,6); analyses timings and patterns of tumour evolution(7); describes the diverse transcriptional consequences of somatic mutation on splicing, expression levels, fusion genes and promoter activity(8,9); and evaluates a range of more-specialized features of cancer genomes(8,10-18).Peer reviewe

Sense of agency in the human brain

In adult life, people normally know what they are doing. This experience of controlling one's own actions and, through them, the course of events in the outside world is called 'sense of agency'. It forms a central feature of human experience; however, the brain mechanisms that produce the sense of agency have only recently begun to be investigated systematically. This recent progress has been driven by the development of better measures of the experience of agency, improved design of cognitive and behavioural experiments, and a growing understanding of the brain circuits that generate this distinctive but elusive experience. The sense of agency is a mental and neural state of cardinal importance in human civilization, because it is frequently altered in psychopathology and because it underpins the concept of responsibility in human societies