A sensitivity analysis of the effect of pumping parameters on hydraulic fracture networks and local stresses during Shale Gas operations

The shale gas industry has significant impact on economies around the world, however, it is not without risk. One of the primary concerns is felt seismicity and recent earthquakes, caused by fault reactivation related to hydraulic fracturing operations, have escalated uncertainty about hydraulic fracturing methods. Mitigating these risks is essential for restoring public confidence in this controversial industry. We investigate the effect that changing two operational parameters (flow rate and pumping time) and differential pressure has on the flow distance, fracture network area and the minimum lateral distance that hydraulic fracturing should occur from a pre-existing fault in order not to reactivate it (lateral respect distance); thus reducing the risk of felt seismicity. Sensitivity analyses are conducted using a Monte Carlo approach. The lateral respect distance is obtained from calculations of the Coulomb stress change of the rock surrounding the injection stage, for four stress threshold values obtained from the literature. Results show that the flow rate has the smallest rate of change for fracture area (3700 m2 per 0.01 m3/s) and flow distance (8.3 m per 0.01 m3/s). We find that differential pressure has the largest impact on stimulated fracture area, when less than 2 MPa, at 31,029 m2/MPa. The pumping time has the most significant effect on the flow distance (48 m/hr) and the stress threshold value the most significant effect on the lateral respect distance. This study suggests that to reduce the lateral distance, a compromise is required between flow distance and fracture area. The results obtained by this research provide invaluable guidance for operational practice in determining the potential area of the induced fracture network and generated stress field under realistic hydraulic fracturing conditions, an important aspect for risk assessments

Studies of Vibrations from Wind Turbines in the Vicinity of the Eskdalemuir (AS104) IMS Station

Styles et al (2005) describe an extensive microseismic and infrasound monitoring programme to characterise the low-frequency vibration spectra produced by wind turbines of various types, both fixed and variable speed. They demonstrated that small but significant harmonic vibrations (modal eigentones) of the towers, excited by blade passing, tower braking and wind loading while parked, can propagate many kilometres and be detected on broadband seismometers. This meant that protective measures were required to protect the IMS seismic monitoring station (EKA), located at Eskdalemuir in the Scottish Borders, UK. Over 2 GW capacity of wind turbines were planned for this region and planning restriction were imposed to control development because of potential effects on the IMS station. This work established that vibrations of concern in the 2 to 6 Hz band, while small, were critical for this monitoring. Propagation laws were derived and an aggregate vibration budget established which would not prejudice the operation of Eskdalemuir, to aid planning and permit appropriate wind farm development. Subsequently, further work has been carried out to determine if small wind turbines (<50kW) should be covered by the same restrictions as large turbines. The UK Ministry of Defence has now issued new guidelines that should allow small wind projects to be developed in the vicinity of Eskdalemuir after modeling and measurement confirms that they do not generate significant vibrations within the band of concern. The work may have relevance to other IMS sites where new windfarm developments are planned or already exist

Geophysical characterization of derelict coalmine workings and mineshaft detection: a case study from Shrewsbury, United Kingdom

A study site of derelict coalmine workings near Shrewsbury, United Kingdom was the focus for multi‐phase, near‐surface geophysical investigations. Investigation objectives were: 1) site characterization for remaining relict infrastructure foundations, 2) locate an abandoned coalmine shaft, 3) determine if the shaft was open, filled or partially filled and 4) determine if the shaft was capped (and if possible characterize the capping material). Phase one included a desktop study and 3D microgravity modelling of the relict coalmine shaft thought to be on site. In phase two, electrical and electromagnetic surveys to determine site resistivity and conductivity were acquired together with fluxgate gradiometry and an initial microgravity survey. Phase three targeted the phase two geophysical anomalies and acquired high‐resolution self potential and ground penetrating radar datasets. The phased‐survey approach minimised site activity and survey costs. Geophysical results were compared and interpreted to characterize the site, the microgravity models were used to validate interpretations. Relict buildings, railway track remains with associated gravel and a partially filled coalmine shaft were located. Microgravity proved optimal to locate the mineshaft with radar profiles showing ‘side‐swipe’ effects from the mineshaft that did not directly underlie survey lines. Geophysical interpretations were then verified with subsequent geotechnical intrusive investigations. Comparisons of historical map records with intrusive geotechnical site investigations show care must be taken using map data alone, as the latter mineshaft locations was found to be inaccurate

Horizontal respect distance for hydraulic fracturing in the vicinity of existing faults in deep geological reservoirs: A review and modelling study

Hydraulic fracturing is widely used in the petroleum industry to enhance oil and gas production, especially for the extraction of shale gas from unconventional reservoirs. A good understanding of the vertical distance which should be preserved between hydraulic stimulation and overlying aquifers (potable water) has been demonstrated as being greater than 600 metres (2000 feet). However, the effective application of this technique depends on many factors; one of particular importance is the influence of the fracturing process on pre-existing fractures and faults in the reservoir, which, however, to date, has had little analysis. Specifically, the identification of the required respect distance which must be maintained between the hydraulic fracturing location and pre-existing faults is of paramount importance in minimizing the risk of felt, induced seismicity. This must be an important consideration for setting the guidelines for operational procedures by legislative authorities. We investigate the respect distance using a Monte Carlo approach, generating fifty discrete fracture networks for each of three fracture intensities, on which a hydraulic fracturing simulation is run, using FracMan®. The Coulomb stress change of the rock surrounding the simulated injection stage is calculated for three weighted source mechanisms combining inflation, strike-slip and reverse. The lateral respect distance is obtained using values from literature of the amount of stress required to induce movement on a pre-existing fault. We find that the lateral respect distance is dependent on fracture intensity and the failure threshold. However, the weighting of the source mechanism has limited effect on the lateral respect distance

Ethnic differences in unemployment and ill health.

Objective The aim of the study is to evaluate whether health inequalities associated with unemployment are comparable across different ethnic groups. Method A random sample of inhabitants of the city of Rotterdam filled out a questionnaire on health and its determinants, with a response of 55.4% (n = 2,057). In a cross-sectional design the associations of unemployment, ethnicity, and individual characteristics with a perceived poor health were investigated with logistic regression analysis. The associations of these determinants with physical and mental health, measured by the Short Form 36 Health Survey, were evaluated with linear regression analyses. Interactions between ethnicity and unemployment were investigated to determine whether associations of unemployment and health differed across ethnic groups. Results Ill health was more common among unemployed persons [odd

Laparoscopy to predict the result of primary cytoreductive surgery in advanced ovarian cancer patients (LapOvCa-trial): a multicentre randomized controlled study

Contains fulltext : 108486.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Standard treatment of advanced ovarian cancer is surgery and chemotherapy. The goal of surgery is to remove all macroscopic tumour, as the amount of residual tumour is the most important prognostic factor for survival. When removal off all tumour is considered not feasible, neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) in combination with interval debulking surgery (IDS) is performed. Current methods of staging are not always accurate in predicting surgical outcome, since approximately 40% of patients will have more than 1 cm residual tumour after primary debulking surgery (PDS). In this study we aim to assess whether adding laparoscopy to the diagnostic work-up of patients suspected of advanced ovarian carcinoma may prevent unsuccessful primary debulking surgery for ovarian cancer. METHODS: Multicentre randomized controlled trial, including all gynaecologic oncologic centres in the Netherlands and their affiliated hospitals. Patients are eligible when they are planned for PDS after conventional staging. Participants are randomized between direct PDS or additional diagnostic laparoscopy. Depending on the result of laparoscopy patients are treated by PDS within three weeks, followed by six courses of platinum based chemotherapy or with NACT and IDS 3-4 weeks after three courses of chemotherapy, followed by another three courses of chemotherapy. Primary outcome measure is the proportion of PDS's leaving more than one centimetre tumour residual in each arm. In total 200 patients will be randomized. Data will be analysed according to intention to treat. DISCUSSION: Patients who have disease considered to be resectable to less than one centimetre should undergo PDS to improve prognosis. However, there is a need for better diagnostic procedures because the current number of debulking surgeries leaving more than one centimetre residual tumour is still high. Laparoscopy before starting treatment for ovarian cancer can be an additional diagnostic tool to predict the outcome of PDS. Despite the absence of strong evidence and despite the possible complications, laparoscopy is already implemented in many countries. We propose a randomized multicentre trial to provide evidence on the effectiveness of laparoscopy before primary surgery for advanced stage ovarian cancer patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Netherlands Trial Register number NTR2644

Pan-cancer analysis of whole genomes

Cancer is driven by genetic change, and the advent of massively parallel sequencing has enabled systematic documentation of this variation at the whole-genome scale(1-3). Here we report the integrative analysis of 2,658 whole-cancer genomes and their matching normal tissues across 38 tumour types from the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium of the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We describe the generation of the PCAWG resource, facilitated by international data sharing using compute clouds. On average, cancer genomes contained 4-5 driver mutations when combining coding and non-coding genomic elements; however, in around 5% of cases no drivers were identified, suggesting that cancer driver discovery is not yet complete. Chromothripsis, in which many clustered structural variants arise in a single catastrophic event, is frequently an early event in tumour evolution; in acral melanoma, for example, these events precede most somatic point mutations and affect several cancer-associated genes simultaneously. Cancers with abnormal telomere maintenance often originate from tissues with low replicative activity and show several mechanisms of preventing telomere attrition to critical levels. Common and rare germline variants affect patterns of somatic mutation, including point mutations, structural variants and somatic retrotransposition. A collection of papers from the PCAWG Consortium describes non-coding mutations that drive cancer beyond those in the TERT promoter(4); identifies new signatures of mutational processes that cause base substitutions, small insertions and deletions and structural variation(5,6); analyses timings and patterns of tumour evolution(7); describes the diverse transcriptional consequences of somatic mutation on splicing, expression levels, fusion genes and promoter activity(8,9); and evaluates a range of more-specialized features of cancer genomes(8,10-18).Peer reviewe