Models to assess how best to replace dengue virus vectors with Wolbachia-infected mosquito populations

Dengue fever is increasing in importance in the tropics and subtropics. Endosymbiotic Wolbachia bacteria as novel control methods can reduce the ability of virus transmission. So, many mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia are released in some countries so that strategies for population replacement can be fulfilled. However, not all of these field trails are successful, for example, releases on Tri Nguyen Island, Vietnam in 2013 failed. Thus, we evaluated a series of relevant issues such as (a) why do some releases fail? (b) What affects the success of population replacement? And (c) Whether or not augmentation can block the dengue diseases in field trials. If not, how we can success be achieved? Models with and without augmentation, incorporating the effects of cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) and fitness effects are proposed to describe the spread of Wolbachia in mosquito populations. Stability analysis revealed that backward bifurcations and multiple attractors may exist, which indicate that initial quantities of infected and uninfected mosquitoes, augmentation methods (timing, quantity, order and frequency) may affect the success of the strategies. The results show that successful population replacement will rely on selection of suitable strains of Wolbachia and careful design of augmentation methods

Membrane connectivity estimated by digital image analysis of HER2 immunohistochemistry is concordant with visual scoring and fluorescence in situ hybridization results: algorithm evaluation on breast cancer tissue microarrays

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>The human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) is an established biomarker for management of patients with breast cancer. While conventional testing of HER2 protein expression is based on semi-quantitative visual scoring of the immunohistochemistry (IHC) result, efforts to reduce inter-observer variation and to produce continuous estimates of the IHC data are potentiated by digital image analysis technologies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>HER2 IHC was performed on the tissue microarrays (TMAs) of 195 patients with an early ductal carcinoma of the breast. Digital images of the IHC slides were obtained by Aperio ScanScope GL Slide Scanner. Membrane connectivity algorithm (HER2-CONNECT™, Visiopharm) was used for digital image analysis (DA). A pathologist evaluated the images on the screen twice (visual evaluations: VE1 and VE2). HER2 fluorescence <it>in situ </it>hybridization (FISH) was performed on the corresponding sections of the TMAs. The agreement between the IHC HER2 scores, obtained by VE1, VE2, and DA was tested for individual TMA spots and patient's maximum TMA spot values (VE1max, VE2max, DAmax). The latter were compared with the FISH data. Correlation of the continuous variable of the membrane connectivity estimate with the FISH data was tested.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The pathologist intra-observer agreement (VE1 and VE2) on HER2 IHC score was almost perfect: kappa 0.91 (by spot) and 0.88 (by patient). The agreement between visual evaluation and digital image analysis was almost perfect at the spot level (kappa 0.86 and 0.87, with VE1 and VE2 respectively) and at the patient level (kappa 0.80 and 0.86, with VE1max and VE2max, respectively). The DA was more accurate than VE in detection of FISH-positive patients by recruiting 3 or 2 additional FISH-positive patients to the IHC score 2+ category from the IHC 0/1+ category by VE1max or VE2max, respectively. The DA continuous variable of the membrane connectivity correlated with the FISH data (HER2 and CEP17 copy numbers, and HER2/CEP17 ratio).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>HER2 IHC digital image analysis based on membrane connectivity estimate was in almost perfect agreement with the visual evaluation of the pathologist and more accurate in detection of HER2 FISH-positive patients. Most immediate benefit of integrating the DA algorithm into the routine pathology HER2 testing may be obtained by alerting/reassuring pathologists of potentially misinterpreted IHC 0/1+ versus 2+ cases.</p

Observation of top quark pairs produced in association with a vector boson in pp collisions at s=8 √s=8TeV

Measurements of the cross sections for top quark pairs produced in association with a W or Z boson are presented, using 8 TeV pp collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.5 fb −1 , collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC. Final states are selected in which the associated W boson decays to a charged lepton and a neutrino or the Z boson decays to two charged leptons. Signal events are identified by matching reconstructed objects in the detector to specific final state particles from t t ¯ W tt¯W or t t ¯ Z tt¯Z decays. The t t ¯ W tt¯W cross section is measured to be 382 − 102 + 117 fb with a significance of 4.8 standard deviations from the background-only hypothesis. The t t ¯ Z tt¯Z cross section is measured to be 242 − 55 + 65 fb with a significance of 6.4 standard deviations from the background-only hypothesis. These measurements are used to set bounds on five anomalous dimension-six operators that would affect the t t ¯ W tt¯W and t t ¯ Z tt¯Z cross sections

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Search for associated production of a Z boson with a single top quark and for tZ flavour-changing interactions in pp collisions at root s=8 TeV

A search for the production of a single top quark in association with a Z boson is presented, both to identify the expected standard model process and to search for flavour-changing neutral current interactions. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb−1 recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC in proton-proton collisions at s√=8s=8 TeV. Final states with three leptons (electrons or muons) and at least one jet are investigated. An events yield compatible with tZq standard model production is observed, and the corresponding cross section is measured to be σ(pp → tZq → ℓνbℓ+ℓ−q) = 10− 7+ 8 fb with a significance of 2.4 standard deviations. No presence of flavour-changing neutral current production of tZq is observed. Exclusion limits at 95% confidence level on the branching fractions of a top quark decaying to a Z boson and an up or a charm quark are found to be ℬ(t → Zu) < 0.022% and ℬ(t → Zc) < 0.049%

Event shapes and azimuthal correlations in Z plus jets events in pp collisions at root √s=7TeV^{√s=7 TeV}

is produced in association with jets in proton–proton collisions. The data collected with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC at $^{√s=7 TeV}$ correspond to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb$^{-1}$. The analysis provides a test of predictions from perturbative QCD for a process that represents a substantial background to many physics channels. Results are presented as a function of jet multiplicity, for inclusive Z boson production and for Z bosons with transverse momenta greater than 150 GeV, and compared to predictions from Monte Carlo event generators that include leading-order multiparton matrix-element (with up to four hard partons in the final state) and next-to-leading-order simulations of Z+1-jet events. The experimental results are corrected for detector effects, and can be compared directly with other QCD model