Agent-based modelling and inundation prediction to enable the identification of businesses affected by flooding

Flooding continues to cause significant disruption to individuals, organisations and communities in many parts of the world. In terms of the impact on businesses in the United Kingdom (UK), flooding is responsible for the loss of millions of pounds to the economy. As part of a UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council funded project on flood risk management, SESAME, research is being carried out with the aim of improving business response to and preparedness for flood events. To achieve this aim, one strand of the research is focused on establishing how agent-based modelling and simulation can be used to evaluate and improve business continuity. This paper reports on the development of the virtual geographic environment (VGE) component of an agent-based model and how this has been combined with inundation prediction to enable the identification of businesses affected by flooding in any urban area of the UK. The VGE has been developed to use layers from Ordnance Survey’s MasterMap, namely the Topography Layer, Integrated Transport Network Layer and Address Layer 2. Coupling the VGE with inundation prediction provides credibility in modelling flood events in any area of the UK. An initial case study is presented focusing on the Lower Don Valley region of Sheffield leading to the identification of businesses impacted by flooding based on a predicted inundation. Further work will focus on the development of agents to model and simulate businesses during and in the aftermath of flood events such that changes in their behaviours can be investigated leading to improved operational response and business continuity

Novel rhodium on carbon catalysts for the oxidation of benzyl alcohol to benzaldehyde: A study of the modification of metal/support interactions by acid pre-treatments

Rhodium nanoparticles or rhodium organometallic complexes are mainly used in catalysis for reduction or hydroformylation reactions. In this work instead, we explored the capabilities of Rh nanoparticles as an oxidation catalyst, applied to the oxidation of benzyl alcohol to benzaldehyde under very mild conditions (100 °C, and atmospheric pressure) as a model reaction. Here we report the preparation of novel Rh/C catalysts by using an impregnation protocol, with particular emphasis on the pre-treatment of the carbon supports by using HNO3 and HCl, as well as the characterization of these materials by using an array of methods involving TEM, XPS and XRPD. Our preparation method led to a wide Rh particle size distribution ranging from 20 to 100 nm, and we estimate an upper limit diameter of Rh nanoparticles for their activity towards benzyl alcohol oxidation to be ca. 30 nm. Furthermore, a HNO3 pre-treatment of the activated carbon support was able to induce a smaller and narrower particle size distribution of Rh nanoparticles, whereas a HCl pre-treatment had no effect or sintered the Rh nanoparticles. We rationalise these results by HNO3 as an acid able to create new nucleation sites for Rh on the carbon surface, with the final effect of smaller nanoparticles, whereas for HCl the effect of sintering was most likely due to site blocking of the nucleation sites over the carbon surface. The roles of acid centres on the carbon surfaces for the oxidation reaction was also investigated, and the larger their amounts the larger the amounts of by-products. However, by treatment with HNO3 we were able to convert neutral or basic carbons into supports capable to enhance the catalytic activity of Rh, and yet minimised detrimental effects on the selectivity of the oxidation to benzaldehyde

Titan's cold case files - Outstanding questions after Cassini-Huygens

Abstract The entry of the Cassini-Huygens spacecraft into orbit around Saturn in July 2004 marked the start of a golden era in the exploration of Titan, Saturn's giant moon. During the Prime Mission (2004–2008), ground-breaking discoveries were made by the Cassini orbiter including the equatorial dune fields (flyby T3, 2005), northern lakes and seas (T16, 2006), and the large positive and negative ions (T16 & T18, 2006), to name a few. In 2005 the Huygens probe descended through Titan's atmosphere, taking the first close-up pictures of the surface, including large networks of dendritic channels leading to a dried-up seabed, and also obtaining detailed profiles of temperature and gas composition during the atmospheric descent. The discoveries continued through the Equinox Mission (2008–2010) and Solstice Mission (2010–2017) totaling 127 targeted flybys of Titan in all. Now at the end of the mission, we are able to look back on the high-level scientific questions from the start of the mission, and assess the progress that has been made towards answering these. At the same time, new scientific questions regarding Titan have emerged from the discoveries that have been made. In this paper we review a cross-section of important scientific questions that remain partially or completely unanswered, ranging from Titan's deep interior to the exosphere. Our intention is to help formulate the science goals for the next generation of planetary missions to Titan, and to stimulate new experimental, observational and theoretical investigations in the interim

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Velocity-space sensitivity of the time-of-flight neutron spectrometer at JET

The velocity-space sensitivities of fast-ion diagnostics are often described by so-called weight functions. Recently, we formulated weight functions showing the velocity-space sensitivity of the often dominant beam-target part of neutron energy spectra. These weight functions for neutron emission spectrometry (NES) are independent of the particular NES diagnostic. Here we apply these NES weight functions to the time-of-flight spectrometer TOFOR at JET. By taking the instrumental response function of TOFOR into account, we calculate time-of-flight NES weight functions that enable us to directly determine the velocity-space sensitivity of a given part of a measured time-of-flight spectrum from TOFOR

On the mechanisms governing gas penetration into a tokamak plasma during a massive gas injection

A new 1D radial fluid code, IMAGINE, is used to simulate the penetration of gas into a tokamak plasma during a massive gas injection (MGI). The main result is that the gas is in general strongly braked as it reaches the plasma, due to mechanisms related to charge exchange and (to a smaller extent) recombination. As a result, only a fraction of the gas penetrates into the plasma. Also, a shock wave is created in the gas which propagates away from the plasma, braking and compressing the incoming gas. Simulation results are quantitatively consistent, at least in terms of orders of magnitude, with experimental data for a D 2 MGI into a JET Ohmic plasma. Simulations of MGI into the background plasma surrounding a runaway electron beam show that if the background electron density is too high, the gas may not penetrate, suggesting a possible explanation for the recent results of Reux et al in JET (2015 Nucl. Fusion 55 093013)

Relationship of edge localized mode burst times with divertor flux loop signal phase in JET

A phase relationship is identified between sequential edge localized modes (ELMs) occurrence times in a set of H-mode tokamak plasmas to the voltage measured in full flux azimuthal loops in the divertor region. We focus on plasmas in the Joint European Torus where a steady H-mode is sustained over several seconds, during which ELMs are observed in the Be II emission at the divertor. The ELMs analysed arise from intrinsic ELMing, in that there is no deliberate intent to control the ELMing process by external means. We use ELM timings derived from the Be II signal to perform direct time domain analysis of the full flux loop VLD2 and VLD3 signals, which provide a high cadence global measurement proportional to the voltage induced by changes in poloidal magnetic flux. Specifically, we examine how the time interval between pairs of successive ELMs is linked to the time-evolving phase of the full flux loop signals. Each ELM produces a clear early pulse in the full flux loop signals, whose peak time is used to condition our analysis. The arrival time of the following ELM, relative to this pulse, is found to fall into one of two categories: (i) prompt ELMs, which are directly paced by the initial response seen in the flux loop signals; and (ii) all other ELMs, which occur after the initial response of the full flux loop signals has decayed in amplitude. The times at which ELMs in category (ii) occur, relative to the first ELM of the pair, are clustered at times when the instantaneous phase of the full flux loop signal is close to its value at the time of the first ELM

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362