Products of Compartmental Models in Epidemiology.

We show that many structured epidemic models may be described using a straightforward product structure in this paper. Such products, derived from products of directed graphs, may represent useful refinements including geographic and demographic structure, age structure, gender, risk groups, or immunity status. Extension to multistrain dynamics, that is, pathogen heterogeneity, is also shown to be feasible in this framework. Systematic use of such products may aid in model development and exploration, can yield insight, and could form the basis of a systematic approach to numerical structural sensitivity analysis

Free Unstable Modes and Massive Bodies in Saturn's Outer B Ring

Voyager images and Cassini occultation data have previously shown that the behavior of the outer edge of Saturn's massive B ring is determined only in part by a static response to the 2:1 inner Lindblad resonance with Mimas. In Cassini images of this region, we find, in addition to the expected wavenumber-2 forced distortion, evidence for unforced self-excited wavenumber-3, wavenumber-2, and wavenumber-1 normal modes. These are the first observations to suggest substantial wave amplification in Saturn's broad rings. Moreover, the presence of these free modes strongly implicates viscous overstability as their underlying cause and, by inference, the cause for most if not all of the unforced structures throughout the high-mass-density B ring and in other high-mass-density regions in Saturn's rings. Analysis of each of the inferred waves reveals a consistent lower bound on the average surface mass density of ~ 44 g/cm^2 for the outer 250 km of the ring, though the true surface density could be as high as 100 g/cm^2 or higher. Interference between the forced and free wavenumber-2 modes yields a total wavenumber-2 pattern that varies in amplitude and orientation with a characteristic period of ~ 5.5 years. We also find localized disturbances, including 3.5-km-tall vertical structures, that provide circumstantial evidence for embedded massive bodies in the Mimas resonance zone. The presence of such bodies is supported by the presence of a shadow-casting moonlet ~ 0.3 km wide near the ring's edge.Comment: 38 pages, 6 figure

Prevention and control of Zika fever as a mosquito-borne and sexually transmitted disease

The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic poses a major global public health emergency. It is known that ZIKV is spread by \textit{Aedes} mosquitoes, recent studies show that ZIKV can also be transmitted via sexual contact and cases of sexually transmitted ZIKV have been confirmed in the U.S., France, and Italy. How sexual transmission affects the spread and control of ZIKV infection is not well-understood. We presented a mathematical model to investigate the impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission on spread and control of ZIKV and used the model to fit the ZIKV data in Brazil, Colombia, and El Salvador. Based on the estimated parameter values, we calculated the median and confidence interval of the basic reproduction number R0=2.055 (95% CI: 0.523-6.300), in which the distribution of the percentage of contribution by sexual transmission is 3.044 (95% CI: 0.123-45.73). Our study indicates that R0 is most sensitive to the biting rate and mortality rate of mosquitoes while sexual transmission increases the risk of infection and epidemic size and prolongs the outbreak. In order to prevent and control the transmission of ZIKV, it must be treated as not only a mosquito-borne disease but also a sexually transmitted disease

Formation of a Propeller Structure by a Moonlet in a Dense Planetary Ring

The Cassini spacecraft discovered a propeller-shaped structure in Saturn's A ring. This propeller structure is thought to be formed by gravitational scattering of ring particles by an unseen embedded moonlet. Self-gravity wakes are prevalent in dense rings due to gravitational instability. Strong gravitational wakes affect the propeller structure. Here, we derive the condition for formation of a propeller structure by a moonlet embedded in a dense ring with gravitational wakes. We find that a propeller structure is formed when the wavelength of the gravitational wakes is smaller than the Hill radius of the moonlet. We confirm this formation condition by performing numerical simulations. This condition is consistent with observations of propeller structures in Saturn's A ring.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter