479 research outputs found
Climate change and water resources in arid regions : uncertainty of the baseline time period
Recent climate change studies have given a lot of attention to the uncertainty that stems from general circulation models (GCM), greenhouse gas emission scenarios, hydrological models and downscaling approaches. Yet, the uncertainty that stems from the selection of the baseline period has not been studied. Accordingly, the main research question is as follows: What would be the differences and/or the similarities in the evaluation of climate change impacts between the GCM and the delta perturbation scenarios using different baseline periods? This article addresses this issue through comparison of the results of two different baseline periods, investigating the uncertainties in evaluating climate change impact on the hydrological characteristics of arid regions. The Lower Zab River Basin (Northern Iraq) has been selected as a representative case study. The research outcomes show that the considered baseline periods suggest increases and decreases in the temperature and precipitation (P), respectively, over the 2020, 2050 and 2080 periods. The two climatic scenarios are likely to lead to similar reductions in the reservoir mean monthly flows, and subsequently, their maximum discharge is approximately identical. The predicted reduction in the inflow for the 2080–2099 time period fluctuates between 31 and 49% based on SRA1B and SRA2 scenarios, respectively. The delta perturbation scenario permits the sensitivity of the climatic models to be clearly determined compared to the GCM. The former allows for a wide variety of likely climate change scenarios at the regional level and are easier to generate and apply so that they could complement the latter
The cometary composition of a protoplanetary disk as revealed by complex cyanides
Observations of comets and asteroids show that the Solar Nebula that spawned
our planetary system was rich in water and organic molecules. Bombardment
brought these organics to the young Earth's surface, seeding its early
chemistry. Unlike asteroids, comets preserve a nearly pristine record of the
Solar Nebula composition. The presence of cyanides in comets, including 0.01%
of methyl cyanide (CH3CN) with respect to water, is of special interest because
of the importance of C-N bonds for abiotic amino acid synthesis. Comet-like
compositions of simple and complex volatiles are found in protostars, and can
be readily explained by a combination of gas-phase chemistry to form e.g. HCN
and an active ice-phase chemistry on grain surfaces that advances
complexity[3]. Simple volatiles, including water and HCN, have been detected
previously in Solar Nebula analogues - protoplanetary disks around young stars
- indicating that they survive disk formation or are reformed in situ. It has
been hitherto unclear whether the same holds for more complex organic molecules
outside of the Solar Nebula, since recent observations show a dramatic change
in the chemistry at the boundary between nascent envelopes and young disks due
to accretion shocks[8]. Here we report the detection of CH3CN (and HCN and
HC3N) in the protoplanetary disk around the young star MWC 480. We find
abundance ratios of these N-bearing organics in the gas-phase similar to
comets, which suggests an even higher relative abundance of complex cyanides in
the disk ice. This implies that complex organics accompany simpler volatiles in
protoplanetary disks, and that the rich organic chemistry of the Solar Nebula
was not unique.Comment: Definitive version of the manuscript is published in Nature, 520,
7546, 198, 2015. This is the author's versio
Contribution of sea-ice loss to Arctic amplification is regulated by Pacific Ocean decadal variability
The pace of Arctic warming is about double that at lower latitudes – a robust phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA)1. Many diverse climate processes and feedbacks cause AA2-7, including positive feedbacks associated with diminished sea ice6,7. However, the precise contribution of sea-ice loss to AA remains uncertain7,8. Through analyses of both observations and model simulations, we show that the contribution of sea-ice loss to wintertime AA appears dependent on the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results suggest that for the same pattern and amount of sea-ice loss, consequent Arctic warming is larger during the negative PDO phase, relative to the positive phase, leading to larger reductions in the poleward gradient of tropospheric thickness and to more pronounced reductions in the upper-level westerlies. Given the oscillatory nature of the PDO, this relationship has the potential to increase skill in decadal-scale predictability of Arctic and sub-Arctic climate. Our results indicate that Arctic warming in response to the ongoing long-term sea-ice decline9,10 is greater (reduced) during periods of negative (positive) PDO phase. We speculate that the observed recent shift to the positive PDO phase, if maintained and all other factors being equal, could act to temporarily reduce the pace of wintertime Arctic warming in the near future.J.A.S. was funded by a UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grants NE/J019585/1 and NE/M006123/1. J.A.F. was supported by an NSF/ARCSS grant (1304097) and NASA grant (NNX14AH896). The model simulations were performed on the ARCHER UK National Supercomputing Service. We thank the NOAA ESRL and Met Office Hadley Centre for provision of observational and reanalysis data sets. We also thank D. Ackerley for helping to diagnose the cause of model crashes, C. Deser for commenting on the manuscript prior to submission, and two anonymous reviewers for constructive criticism
First observations of separated atmospheric nu_mu and bar{nu-mu} events in the MINOS detector
The complete 5.4 kton MINOS far detector has been taking data since the beginning of August 2003 at a depth of 2070 meters water-equivalent in the Soudan mine, Minnesota. This paper presents the first MINOS observations of nuµ and [overline nu ]µ charged-current atmospheric neutrino interactions based on an exposure of 418 days. The ratio of upward- to downward-going events in the data is compared to the Monte Carlo expectation in the absence of neutrino oscillations, giving Rup/downdata/Rup/downMC=0.62-0.14+0.19(stat.)±0.02(sys.). An extended maximum likelihood analysis of the observed L/E distributions excludes the null hypothesis of no neutrino oscillations at the 98% confidence level. Using the curvature of the observed muons in the 1.3 T MINOS magnetic field nuµ and [overline nu ]µ interactions are separated. The ratio of [overline nu ]µ to nuµ events in the data is compared to the Monte Carlo expectation assuming neutrinos and antineutrinos oscillate in the same manner, giving R[overline nu ][sub mu]/nu[sub mu]data/R[overline nu ][sub mu]/nu[sub mu]MC=0.96-0.27+0.38(stat.)±0.15(sys.), where the errors are the statistical and systematic uncertainties. Although the statistics are limited, this is the first direct observation of atmospheric neutrino interactions separately for nuµ and [overline nu ]µ
Measurement of the Bottom-Strange Meson Mixing Phase in the Full CDF Data Set
We report a measurement of the bottom-strange meson mixing phase \beta_s
using the time evolution of B0_s -> J/\psi (->\mu+\mu-) \phi (-> K+ K-) decays
in which the quark-flavor content of the bottom-strange meson is identified at
production. This measurement uses the full data set of proton-antiproton
collisions at sqrt(s)= 1.96 TeV collected by the Collider Detector experiment
at the Fermilab Tevatron, corresponding to 9.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity.
We report confidence regions in the two-dimensional space of \beta_s and the
B0_s decay-width difference \Delta\Gamma_s, and measure \beta_s in [-\pi/2,
-1.51] U [-0.06, 0.30] U [1.26, \pi/2] at the 68% confidence level, in
agreement with the standard model expectation. Assuming the standard model
value of \beta_s, we also determine \Delta\Gamma_s = 0.068 +- 0.026 (stat) +-
0.009 (syst) ps-1 and the mean B0_s lifetime, \tau_s = 1.528 +- 0.019 (stat) +-
0.009 (syst) ps, which are consistent and competitive with determinations by
other experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, Phys. Rev. Lett 109, 171802 (2012
Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV
The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS
has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions
at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection
criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined.
For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a
muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the
whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4,
while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The
efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than
90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall
momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The
transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity
for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be
better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions
of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO
Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV
The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS
has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions
at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection
criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined.
For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a
muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the
whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4,
while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The
efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than
90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall
momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The
transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity
for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be
better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions
of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO
X-ray emission from the Sombrero galaxy: discrete sources
We present a study of discrete X-ray sources in and around the
bulge-dominated, massive Sa galaxy, Sombrero (M104), based on new and archival
Chandra observations with a total exposure of ~200 ks. With a detection limit
of L_X = 1E37 erg/s and a field of view covering a galactocentric radius of ~30
kpc (11.5 arcminute), 383 sources are detected. Cross-correlation with Spitler
et al.'s catalogue of Sombrero globular clusters (GCs) identified from HST/ACS
observations reveals 41 X-rays sources in GCs, presumably low-mass X-ray
binaries (LMXBs). We quantify the differential luminosity functions (LFs) for
both the detected GC and field LMXBs, whose power-low indices (~1.1 for the
GC-LF and ~1.6 for field-LF) are consistent with previous studies for
elliptical galaxies. With precise sky positions of the GCs without a detected
X-ray source, we further quantify, through a fluctuation analysis, the GC LF at
fainter luminosities down to 1E35 erg/s. The derived index rules out a
faint-end slope flatter than 1.1 at a 2 sigma significance, contrary to recent
findings in several elliptical galaxies and the bulge of M31. On the other
hand, the 2-6 keV unresolved emission places a tight constraint on the field
LF, implying a flattened index of ~1.0 below 1E37 erg/s. We also detect 101
sources in the halo of Sombrero. The presence of these sources cannot be
interpreted as galactic LMXBs whose spatial distribution empirically follows
the starlight. Their number is also higher than the expected number of cosmic
AGNs (52+/-11 [1 sigma]) whose surface density is constrained by deep X-ray
surveys. We suggest that either the cosmic X-ray background is unusually high
in the direction of Sombrero, or a distinct population of X-ray sources is
present in the halo of Sombrero.Comment: 11 figures, 5 tables, ApJ in pres
Azimuthal anisotropy of charged particles at high transverse momenta in PbPb collisions at sqrt(s[NN]) = 2.76 TeV
The azimuthal anisotropy of charged particles in PbPb collisions at
nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 2.76 TeV is measured with the CMS
detector at the LHC over an extended transverse momentum (pt) range up to
approximately 60 GeV. The data cover both the low-pt region associated with
hydrodynamic flow phenomena and the high-pt region where the anisotropies may
reflect the path-length dependence of parton energy loss in the created medium.
The anisotropy parameter (v2) of the particles is extracted by correlating
charged tracks with respect to the event-plane reconstructed by using the
energy deposited in forward-angle calorimeters. For the six bins of collision
centrality studied, spanning the range of 0-60% most-central events, the
observed v2 values are found to first increase with pt, reaching a maximum
around pt = 3 GeV, and then to gradually decrease to almost zero, with the
decline persisting up to at least pt = 40 GeV over the full centrality range
measured.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO
Search for new physics with same-sign isolated dilepton events with jets and missing transverse energy
A search for new physics is performed in events with two same-sign isolated
leptons, hadronic jets, and missing transverse energy in the final state. The
analysis is based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of
4.98 inverse femtobarns produced in pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of
7 TeV collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC. This constitutes a factor of
140 increase in integrated luminosity over previously published results. The
observed yields agree with the standard model predictions and thus no evidence
for new physics is found. The observations are used to set upper limits on
possible new physics contributions and to constrain supersymmetric models. To
facilitate the interpretation of the data in a broader range of new physics
scenarios, information on the event selection, detector response, and
efficiencies is provided.Comment: Published in Physical Review Letter
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