From Predicting Solar Activity to Forecasting Space Weather: Practical Examples of Research-to-Operations and Operations-to-Research

The successful transition of research to operations (R2O) and operations to research (O2R) requires, above all, interaction between the two communities. We explore the role that close interaction and ongoing communication played in the successful fielding of three separate developments: an observation platform, a numerical model, and a visualization and specification tool. Additionally, we will examine how these three pieces came together to revolutionize interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) arrival forecasts. A discussion of the importance of education and training in ensuring a positive outcome from R2O activity follows. We describe efforts by the meteorological community to make research results more accessible to forecasters and the applicability of these efforts to the transfer of space-weather research.We end with a forecaster "wish list" for R2O transitions. Ongoing, two-way communication between the research and operations communities is the thread connecting it all.Comment: 18 pages, 3 figures, Solar Physics in pres

Network adaptation improves temporal representation of naturalistic stimuli in drosophila eye: II Mechanisms

Retinal networks must adapt constantly to best present the ever changing visual world to the brain. Here we test the hypothesis that adaptation is a result of different mechanisms at several synaptic connections within the network. In a companion paper (Part I), we showed that adaptation in the photoreceptors (R1-R6) and large monopolar cells (LMC) of the Drosophila eye improves sensitivity to under-represented signals in seconds by enhancing both the amplitude and frequency distribution of LMCs' voltage responses to repeated naturalistic contrast series. In this paper, we show that such adaptation needs both the light-mediated conductance and feedback-mediated synaptic conductance. A faulty feedforward pathway in histamine receptor mutant flies speeds up the LMC output, mimicking extreme light adaptation. A faulty feedback pathway from L2 LMCs to photoreceptors slows down the LMC output, mimicking dark adaptation. These results underline the importance of network adaptation for efficient coding, and as a mechanism for selectively regulating the size and speed of signals in neurons. We suggest that concert action of many different mechanisms and neural connections are responsible for adaptation to visual stimuli. Further, our results demonstrate the need for detailed circuit reconstructions like that of the Drosophila lamina, to understand how networks process information

Leverage points for meaningful participatory governance: lessons from the Tsitsa River catchment, South Africa

South Africa underwent the renowned transition into a representative multiracial democracy in 1994. While there has been notable progress in many developmental aspects of South African society, many inherited dilemmas persist, and myriad novel ones are emerging. In land and water governance, the nascent institutions do not reflect the visions laid out in the pioneering and substantive legislation, policies, and guidelines generated in the post-1994 period. Unaddressed dilemmas include widespread failures in local water governance, persistent inequality of access to land and water, poor or non-existent service delivery in rural areas, underdeveloped institutions for integrated and inclusive water resource management, and pernicious divisions between institutions. Overcoming these challenges, which are embedded in complex social-ecological systems across South Africa, will require the collaborative effort of diverse actors from different levels and sectors of society. So how do we foster meaningful participation in ways that are not tyrannical, tokenistic, or manipulative? How do we build local institutions that make sense in the broader political system and in the lives of rural residents? How do we support institutions that meaningfully include diverse voices and enable tangible development outcomes? This thesis explores these questions as part of the Tsitsa Project, a transdisciplinary landscape management project working in the Tsitsa River Catchment (TsRC) in the rural parts of the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. Based on the valuable water resources, severe ecosystem degradation, overlapping traditional and democratic governance systems, and impoverished population, the TsRC is a worthwhile candidate for in-depth study paired with innovative efforts towards systemic development. The single place-based case study approach drew on systems thinking within an evolving transdisciplinary methodology. Qualitative data were collected through extended fieldwork and analysed through an adaptive and iterative approach. Governance mapping elucidated the multiple levels of governance, and a systemic analysis explored meaningful participation at the local level through causal diagramming and observation-based narratives. From the findings, a synthetic analysis identified high leverage points to enable participatory governance interventions to have more sustained impacts. Governance manifestations in the TsRC generally align with existing descriptions of the fractures and associated dilemmas across South Africa, with the added complexities of being a rural landscape in which democratic and traditional governance systems overlap and interact. Local participatory institutions need to endure the broader instability and dysfunction. Interventions must, therefore, be oriented towards trust building and shared understanding while using more practical interventions that provide tangible outcomes, enable in-practice capacity development, and support platforms for all actors to experience and practice meaningful participation together. This thesis aims to unearth the lessons that one small rural catchment might hold for the governance of complex, contested land and for water governance contexts more broadly.Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science, Institute for Water Research, 202

A Statistical Study of Solar Particle Events in Flux and Dose

The high-energy protons from solar energetic particle (SEP) events present a hazard to space systems: damage to science instruments/electronics/materials or to astronauts. A reliable estimate of the high-energy proton environment is critical to assure mission success. Important characteristics of an SEP event are fluence, peak flux, energy spectrum, time to reach the peak flux, time to reach peak dose, and properties of the cumulative dose profile after an event starts. All of these characteristics are important to understand in order to design space missions properly for both robotic and human missions. Because of the unpredictable and sporadic nature of SEP events, statistical models are often used to represent the SEP parameters described above. In a study by Jun et al. (2007), the statistics of event fluences, durations, and time intervals between events were investigated using the then available historical SEP dataset obtained from the instruments onboard the IMP-8 spacecraft. Since then, a more comprehensive SEP dataset based off of IMP-8 and GOES called Reference Data Set Version 2.0 (RDSv2.0) has become available covering the SEP events up to Year 2015 under a framework of the European Space Agency's (ESA's) Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling (SEPEM) project (Jiggens et al., 2018). The main objectives of this statistical study of SEP events are two-fold: First, the statistics of peak fluxes, event fluences, durations, and time intervals will be re-visited by using RDSv2.0; Second, the statistical analyses of flux and dose timing will be performed using the same dataset RDSv2.0. The results of this study will address the statistical properties of all key parameters for designing a spacecraft or a human mission where the SEP environment is an important consideration

Writing in Britain and Ireland, c. 400 to c. 800

No abstract available

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Lignin biomarkers as tracers of mercury sources in lakes water column

This study presents the role of specific terrigenous organic compounds as important vectors of mercury (Hg) transported from watersheds to lakes of the Canadian boreal forest. In order to differentiate the autochthonous from the allochthonous organic matter (OM), lignin derived biomarker signatures [Lambda, S/V, C/V, P/(V ? S), 3,5-Bd/V and (Ad/Al)v] were used. Since lignin is exclusively produced by terrigenous plants, this approach can give a non equivocal picture of the watershed inputs to the lakes. Moreover, it allows a characterization of the source of OM and its state of degradation. The water column of six lakes from the Canadian Shield was sampled monthly between June and September 2005. Lake total dissolved Hg concentrations and Lambda were positively correlated, meaning that Hg and ligneous inputs are linked (dissolved OM r2 = 0.62, p\0.0001; particulate OM r2 = 0.76, p\0.0001). Ratios of P/(V ? S) and 3,5-Bd/V from both dissolved OM and particulate OM of the water column suggest an inverse relationship between the progressive state of pedogenesis and maturation of the OM in soil before entering the lake, and the Hg concentrations in the water column. No relation was found between Hg levels in the lakes and the watershed flora composition—angiosperm versus gymnosperm or woody versus non-woody compounds. This study has significant implications for watershed management of ecosystems since limiting fresh terrestrial OM inputs should reduce Hg inputs to the aquatic systems. This is particularly the case for largescale land-use impacts, such as deforestation, agriculture and urbanization, associated to large quantities of soil OM being transferred to aquatic systems

The Distances of the Magellanic Clouds

The present status of our knowledge of the distances to the Magellanic Clouds is evaluated from a post-Hipparcos perspective. After a brief summary of the effects of structure, reddening, age and metallicity, the primary distance indicators for the Large Magellanic Cloud are reviewed: The SN 1987A ring, Cepheids, RR Lyraes, Mira variables, and Eclipsing Binaries. Distances derived via these methods are weighted and combined to produce final "best" estimates for the Magellanic Clouds distance moduli.Comment: Invited review article to appear in ``Post Hipparcos Cosmic Candles'', F. Caputo & A. Heck (Eds.), Kluwer Academic Publ., Dordrecht, in pres

Potato late blight field resistance from QTL dPI09c is conferred by the NB-LRR gene R8

Following the often short-lived protection that major nucleotide binding, leucine-rich-repeat (NB-LRR) resistance genes offer against the potato pathogen Phytophthora infestans, field resistance was thought to provide a more durable alternative to prevent late blight disease. We previously identified the QTL dPI09c on potato chromosome 9 as a more durable field resistance source against late blight. Here, the resistance QTL was fine-mapped to a 186 kb region. The interval corresponds to a larger, 389 kb, genomic region in the potato reference genome of Solanum tuberosum Group Phureja doubled monoploid clone DM1-3 (DM) and from which functional NB-LRRs R8, R9a, Rpi-moc1, and Rpi-vnt1 have arisen independently in wild species. dRenSeq analysis of parental clones alongside resistant and susceptible bulks of the segregating population B3C1HP showed full sequence representation of R8. This was independently validated using long-range PCR and screening of a bespoke bacterial artificial chromosome library. The latter enabled a comparative analysis of the sequence variation in this locus in diverse Solanaceae. We reveal for the first time that broad spectrum and durable field resistance against P. infestans is conferred by the NB-LRR gene R8, which is thought to provide narrow spectrum race-specific resistance