Theory and inference for a Markov switching GARCH model

We develop a Markov-switching GARCH model (MS-GARCH) wherein the conditional mean and variance switch in time from one GARCH process to another. The switching is governed by a hidden Markov chain. We provide sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity and existene of moments of the process. Because of path dependence, maximum likelihood estimation is not feasible. By enlarging the parameter space to include the state variables, Bayesian estimation using a Gibbs sampling algorithm is feasible. We illustrate the model on SP500 daily returns.GARCH, Markov-switching, Bayesian inference

Regime switching GARCH models

We develop univariate regime-switching GARCH (RS-GARCH) models wherein the conditional variance switches in time from one GARCH process to another. The switching is governed by a time-varying probability, specified as a function of past information. We provide sufficient conditions for stationarity and existence of moments. Because of path dependence, maximum likehood estimation is infeasible. By enlarging the parameter space to include the state variables, Bayesian estimation using a Gibbs sampling algorithm is feasible. We apply this model using the NASDAQ daily returns series.GARCH; regime switching; Bayesian inference

Transformative art: art as means for long-term neurocognitive change

Every artwork leads to a unique experience by the observer or participant, may it be sensory, emotional, cognitive, interactive, or spiritual experience. At the neurobiological level, such experiences are manifested as activation of the corresponding neural networks. Neuroscience has demonstrated that experience, in particular repeated experience, can cause a long-term change in the involved brain circuits (experience-dependent plasticity). This review will discuss the molding and transformative aspect of arts, examining how repeated and on-going experience of arts may alter cognitive, emotional, and behavioral patterns as well as their underlying neural circuits. The application of this approach to cognitive training and neuropsychological rehabilitation methods will be addressed as well. In addition, it will be suggested that this approach to art, as a long-term transformative medium, may lead to a novel viewpoint on art and a different approach to its creation. Artists can design artworks that aspire to form, in addition to one-shot influencing experience, on-going experiences which gradually create a lasting change, possibly improving audiences' neuropsychological functions

Argument-mapping and extration

In this paper, I propose a unified account for argument-mapping and islandhood in the verbal domain, while casting new light on the notion external argument, as well as the interaction of Case and argument-mapping.I argue that both types of syntactic merger (set-merge and pair-merge; Chomsky, 2004) are used for the merger of verbal arguments. The type of merger determines the islandhood of the argument at its base position, and along with Case-checking, it determines the internal or external mapping of the argument. Choice of the type of merger is governed by the feature-composition of the thematic role assigned to an argument, using the thematic feature system developed by Reinhart (2000).This approach is shown to have clear empirical advantages, when compared to existing frameworks. In addition, it provides answers for previously unresolved questions about argument externality

‘Ideational power’ as a resource in union struggle

Contributing to our understanding of ideas as power resources in union struggle, this article analyses a labour dispute in Israel's shipping industry. The article follows the union's foregrounding of a specific idea of the state contained within the collective understanding of Israel's history, by which the union legitimised its position in the dispute and significantly influenced a government decision. The article therefore suggests that ideas can be an important power resource, particularly when other power resources are lacking but that this power resource is dependent on the specific ideational context: effective foregrounded ideas draw on a shared narrative that enables political actors to claim the moral high ground, while accusing their adversaries of failing to fulfil their moral obligations as understood via the frame of that shared narrative

Theory and inference for a Markov switching GARCH model

We develop a Markov-switching GARCH model (MS-GARCH) wherein the conditional mean and variance switch in time from one GARCH process to another. The switching is governed by a hidden Markov chain. We provide sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity and existence of moments of the process. Because of path dependence, maximum likelihood estimation is not feasible. By enlarging the parameter space to include the state variables, Bayesian estimation using a Gibbs sampling algorithm is feasible. We illustrate the model on SP500 daily returns.GARCH, Markov-switching, Bayesian inference

Changes in bark chemistry across beech bark disease development

Beech Bark Disease (BBD) is a serious invasive complex composed of native and introduced organisms affecting American beech in the northeastern United States and eastern Canada. BBD develops first with the invasion of the scale insect Cryptococcus fagisuga (Advance Front), then with attack by ascomycetous fungi in the genus Neonectria (Killing Front), and finally with chronic infection and excessive production of beech root sprouts (Aftermath Forest). Recent evidence suggests that disease development in the Aftermath Forest is influenced by host bark chemistry including phosphorous, nitrogen, and the flavanols catechin and isorhamnetin. This study examined the concentrations of these four compounds in the bark of American beech along five transects in New York and Pennsylvania. These transects extended from the Pre-BBD Forest to the Aftermath Forest, passing through the Advance Front and Killing Front. Nitrogen and phosphorous did not vary with disease initiation or progression, but catechin was elevated significantly on Killing Front trees with active Neonectria infection. Isorhamnetin was not detected in any of the study trees. This study is the first comparison of tree chemistry across all phases of BBD and is the first to highlight an induced defense response of the host to challenge by the pathogen

Rebranding Batman

While one could reasonably characterize fan fiction as socially contro- versial,” with some lauding the practice as a creative outlet and others meeting it with sneers, legally speaking, its position is undeniably precarious. Fan con- tent, including fan fiction and fan films, lives in the liminal space between cop- yright infringement and fair use. Fan creators argue their works are motivated by a desire to connect with beloved copyrighted expressive works—frequently popular media franchises—and are intended only for enjoyment by themselves and very small fan communities. Copyright owners find the practice of creating fan work far less innocuous, claiming the works threaten to undermine the value of their franchises by creating competition with sanctioned works and over-saturating their markets. This article attempts to reconcile this conflict by turning to trademark law, and its likelihood of confusion standard. The article will argue that the types of expressive works that typically give rise to fan works—media franchises— are so heavily branded and commodified that they closely resemble tangible products. Corresponding to this product-like quality are a distinctive set of ownership interests that are highly reminiscent of a trademark owner’s interest in their brand. These interests diverge from the normative functions of copy- right law in a significant enough manner such that tailoring a specific frame- work is warranted. Trademark law can offer the copyright regime a set of key principles that can be adopted within its existing framework to accommodate the interests of rightsholders without squelching the creativity of fans