Intake of 12 food groups and disability-adjusted life years from coronary heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, and colorectal cancer in 16 European countries

Our aim was to estimate and rank 12 food groups according to disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, type 2 diabetes (T2D), and colorectal cancer (CRC) in 16 European countries. De novo published non-linear dose–response meta-analyses of prospective studies (based on 297 primary reports), and food consumption data from the European Food Safety Authority Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database in Exposure Assessment, and DALY estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation were used. By implementing disease-specific counterfactual scenarios of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMRELs), the proportion of DALYs attributed to 12 food groups was estimated. In addition, a novel modelling approach was developed to obtain a single (optimized) TMREL across diseases. Four scenarios were analysed (A: disease-specific TMRELs/all food-disease associations; B: disease-specific TMRELs/only significant food-disease associations; C: single TMREL/all food-disease associations; D: single TMREL/only significant food-disease associations). Suboptimal food intake was associated with the following proportions of DALYs; Scenario A (highest-estimate) and D (lowest-estimate): CHD (A: 67%, D: 52%), stroke (A: 49%, D: 30%), T2D (A: 57%, D: 51%), and CRC (A: 54%, D: 40%). Whole grains (10%) had the highest impact on DALYs, followed by nuts (7.1%), processed meat (6.4%), fruit (4.4%) and fish and legumes (4.2%) when combining all scenarios. The contribution to total DALYs of all food groups combined in the different scenarios ranged from 41–52% in Austria to 51–69% in the Czech-Republic. These findings could have important implications for planning future food-based dietary guidelines as a public health nutrition strategy

Food groups and risk of coronary heart disease, stroke and heart failure : a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies

Background: Despite growing evidence for food-based dietary patterns' potential to reduce cardiovascular disease risk, knowledge about the amounts of food associated with the greatest change in risk of specific cardiovascular outcomes and about the quality of meta-evidence is limited. Therefore, the aim of this meta-analysis was to synthesize the knowledge about the relation between intake of 12 major food groups (whole grains, refined grains, vegetables, fruits, nuts, legumes, eggs, dairy, fish, red meat, processed meat, and sugar-sweetened beverages [SSB]) and the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and heart failure (HF). Methods: We conducted a systematic search in PubMed and Embase up to March 2017 for prospective studies. Summary risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated using a random effects model for highest versus lowest intake categories, as well as for linear and non-linear relationships. Results: Overall, 123 reports were included in the meta-analyses. An inverse association was present for whole grains (RRCHD: 0.95 (95% CI: 0.92-0.98), RRHF: 0.96 (0.95-0.97)), vegetables and fruits (RRCHD: 0.97 (0.96-0.99), and 0.94 (0.90-0.97); RRstroke: 0.92 (0.86-0.98), and 0.90 (0.84-0.97)), nuts (RRCHD: 0.67 (0.43-1.05)), and fish consumption (RRCHD: 0.88 (0.79-0.99), RRstroke: 0.86 (0.75-0.99), and RRHF: 0.80 (0.67-0.95)), while a positive association was present for egg (RRHF: 1.16 (1.03-1.31)), red meat (RRCHD: 1.15 (1.08-1.23), RRstroke: 1.12 (1.06-1.17), RRHF: 1.08 (1.02-1.14)), processed meat (RRCHD: 1.27 (1.09-1.49), RRstroke: 1.17 (1.02-1.34), RRHF: 1.12 (1.05-1.19)), and SSB consumption (RRCHD: 1.17 (1.11-1.23), RRstroke: 1.07 (1.02-1.12), RRHF: 1.08 (1.05-1.12)) in the linear dose-response meta-analysis. There were clear indications for non-linear dose-response relationships between whole grains, fruits, nuts, dairy, and red meat and CHD. Conclusion: An optimal intake of whole grains, vegetables, fruits, nuts, legumes, dairy, fish, red and processed meat, eggs and SSB showed an important lower risk of CHD, stroke, and HF

Have female twisted-wing parasites (Insecta: Strepsiptera) evolved tolerance traits as response to traumatic penetration?

Traumatic insemination describes an unusual form of mating during which a male penetrates the body wall of its female partner to inject sperm. Females unable to prevent traumatic insemination have been predicted to develop either traits of tolerance or of resistance, both reducing the fitness costs associated with the male-inflicted injury. The evolution of tolerance traits has previously been suggested for the bed bug. Here we present data suggesting that tolerance traits also evolved in females of the twisted-wing parasite species $\textit{Stylops ovinae}$ and $\textit{Xenos vesparum}$. Using micro-indentation experiments and confocal laser scanning microscopy, we found that females of both investigated species possess a uniform resilin-rich integument that is notably thicker at penetration sites than at control sites. As the thickened cuticle does not seem to hamper penetration by males, we hypothesise that thickening of the cuticle resulted in reduced penetration damage and loss of haemolymph and in improved wound sealing. To evaluate the evolutionary relevance of the $\textit{Stylops}$-specific paragenital organ and penis shape variation in the context of inter- and intraspecific competition, we conducted attraction and interspecific mating experiments, as well as a geometric-morphometric analysis of $\textit{S ovinae}$ and $\textit{X vesparum}$ penises. We found that $\textit{S ovinae}$ females indeed attract sympatrically distributed congeneric males. However, only conspecific males were able to mate. In contrast, we did not observe any heterospecific male attraction by $\textit{Xenos}$ females. We therefore hypothesise that the paragenital organ in the genus $\textit{Stylops}$ represents a prezygotic mating barrier that prevents heterospecific matings

Outcome Prediction in Patients with Severe COVID-19 Requiring Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation—A Retrospective International Multicenter Study

The role of veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation therapy (V-V ECMO) in severe COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is still under debate and conclusive data from large cohorts are scarce. Furthermore, criteria for the selection of patients that benefit most from this highly invasive and resource-demanding therapy are yet to be defined. In this study, we assess survival in an international multicenter cohort of COVID-19 patients treated with V-V ECMO and evaluate the performance of several clinical scores to predict 30-day survival. Methods: This is an investigator-initiated retrospective non-interventional international multicenter registry study (NCT04405973, first registered 28 May 2020). In 127 patients treated with V-V ECMO at 15 centers in Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Belgium, and the United States, we calculated the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) Score, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) Score, Respiratory Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Survival Prediction (RESP) Score, Predicting Death for Severe ARDS on V-V ECMO (PRESERVE) Score, and 30-day survival. Results: In our study cohort which enrolled 127 patients, overall 30-day survival was 54%. Median SOFA, SAPS II, APACHE II, RESP, and PRESERVE were 9, 36, 17, 1, and 4, respectively. The prognostic accuracy for all these scores (area under the receiver operating characteristic—AUROC) ranged between 0.548 and 0.605. Conclusions: The use of scores for the prediction of mortality cannot be recommended for treatment decisions in severe COVID-19 ARDS undergoing V-V ECMO; nevertheless, scoring results below or above a specific cut-off value may be considered as an additional tool in the evaluation of prognosis. Survival rates in this cohort of COVID-19 patients treated with V-V ECMO were slightly lower than those reported in non-COVID-19 ARDS patients treated with V-V ECMO

Sea ice diatom contributions to Holocene nutrient utilization in East Antarctica

Combined high-resolution Holocene δ30Sidiat and δ13Cdiat paleorecords are presented from theSeasonal Ice Zone, East Antarctica. Both data sets reflect periods of increased nutrient utilization by diatomsduring the Hypsithermal period (circa 7800 to 3500 calendar years (cal years) B.P.), coincident with a higherabundance of open water diatom species (Fragilariopsis kerguelensis), increased biogenic silica productivity(%BSi), and higher regional summer temperatures. The Neoglacial period (after circa 3500 cal years B.P.) isreflected by an increase in sea ice indicative species (Fragilariopsis curta and Fragilariopsis cylindrus,upto50%) along with a decrease in %BSi and δ13Cdiat(< 18‰ to 23‰). However, over this period, δ30Sidiatdata show an increasing trend, to some of the highest values in the Holocene record (average of +0.43‰).Competing hypotheses are discussed to account for the decoupling trend in utilization proxies including ironfertilization, species-dependent fractionation effects, and diatom habitats. Based on mass balance calculations,we highlight that diatom species derived from the semi-enclosed sea ice environment may have a confoundingeffect upon δ30Sidowncorecompositions of the seasonal sea ice zone. A diatom composition, with approximately28% of biogenic silica derived from the sea ice environment (diat-SI) can account for the increased averagecompo sition of δ30Sidiatduring the Neoglacial. These data highlight the significant role sea ice diatoms can playwith relation to their export in sediment records, which has implications on productivity reconstructions fromthe seasonal ice zone

Framework and baseline examination of the German National Cohort (NAKO)

The German National Cohort (NAKO) is a multidisciplinary, population-based prospective cohort study that aims to investigate the causes of widespread diseases, identify risk factors and improve early detection and prevention of disease. Specifically, NAKO is designed to identify novel and better characterize established risk and protection factors for the development of cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, neurodegenerative and psychiatric diseases, musculoskeletal diseases, respiratory and infectious diseases in a random sample of the general population. Between 2014 and 2019, a total of 205,415 men and women aged 19–74 years were recruited and examined in 18 study centres in Germany. The baseline assessment included a face-to-face interview, self-administered questionnaires and a wide range of biomedical examinations. Biomaterials were collected from all participants including serum, EDTA plasma, buffy coats, RNA and erythrocytes, urine, saliva, nasal swabs and stool. In 56,971 participants, an intensified examination programme was implemented. Whole-body 3T magnetic resonance imaging was performed in 30,861 participants on dedicated scanners. NAKO collects follow-up information on incident diseases through a combination of active follow-up using self-report via written questionnaires at 2–3 year intervals and passive follow-up via record linkages. All study participants are invited for re-examinations at the study centres in 4–5 year intervals. Thereby, longitudinal information on changes in risk factor profiles and in vascular, cardiac, metabolic, neurocognitive, pulmonary and sensory function is collected. NAKO is a major resource for population-based epidemiology to identify new and tailored strategies for early detection, prediction, prevention and treatment of major diseases for the next 30 years. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10654-022-00890-5

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe