Building future scenarios using cognitive mapping

A participatory approach for developing future scenarios through cognitive maps as a visual representation of mental models is presented. Applying long-term future visioning techniques in a workshop setting has traditionally been a significant challenge for construction industry practitioners with a predominantly short-term, project-based approach to day-to-day operational responsibilities. Six future scenario cognitive maps are presented to illustrate the process. The maps were digitised from A1-sized papers using Decision Explorer software. Several key characteristics of the resulting cognitive maps and lessons learnt for the organisation of industry-based workshops are discussed. The main benefits are derived from the interaction between participants during the mapping process whereby future issues and their interconnectivities are discussed. Limitations of the findings and further work are presented

Analytical Benchmark Problems for Multifidelity Optimization Methods

The paper presents a collection of analytical benchmark problems specifically selected to provide a set of stress tests for the assessment of multifidelity optimization methods. In addition, the paper discusses a comprehensive ensemble of metrics and criteria recommended for the rigorous and meaningful assessment of the performance of multifidelity strategies and algorithms

The LRRK2 Arg1628Pro variant is a risk factor for Parkinson's disease in the Chinese population

The c.G4883C variant in the leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) gene (protein effect: Arg1628Pro) has been recently proposed as a second risk factor for sporadic Parkinson's disease in the Han Chinese population (after the Gly2385Arg variant). In this paper, we analyze the Arg1628Pro variant and the associated haplotype in a large sample of 1,337 Han subjects (834 patients and 543 controls) ascertained from a single referral center in Taiwan. In our sample, the Arg1628Pro allele was more frequent among patients (3.8%) than among controls (1.8%; p = 0.004, OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.29-3.52). Sixty heterozygous and two homozygous carriers of the Arg1628Pro variant were identified among the patients, of which only one was also a carrier of the LRRK2 Gly2385Arg variant. We also show that carriers of the Arg1628Pro variant share a common, extended haplotype, suggesting a founder effect. Parkinson's disease onset age was similar in patients who carried the Arg1628Pro variant and in those who did not carry it. Our data support the contention that the Arg1628Pro variant is a second risk factor for Parkinson's disease in the Han Chinese population. Adding the estimated effects of Arg1628Pro (population attributable risk [PAR] ∼4%) and Gly2385Arg variants (PAR ∼6%) yields a total PAR of ∼10%

Beneficial autoimmunity at body surfaces – immune surveillance and rapid type 2 immunity regulate tissue homeostasis and cancer

Epithelial cells line body surface tissues and provide a physicochemical barrier to the external environment. Frequent microbial and non-microbial challenges such as those imposed by mechanical disruption, injury or exposure to noxious environmental substances including chemicals, carcinogens, ultraviolet-irradiation or toxins cause activation of epithelial cells with release of cytokines and chemokines as well as alterations in the expression of cell surface ligands. Such display of epithelial stress is rapidly sensed by tissue resident immunocytes, which can directly interact with self-moieties on epithelial cells and initiate both local and systemic immune responses. Epithelial cells are thus key drivers of immune surveillance at body surface tissues. However, epithelial cells have a propensity to drive type 2 immunity (rather than type 1) upon non-invasive challenge or stress – a type of immunity whose regulation and function still remain enigmatic. Here we review the induction and possible role of type 2 immunity in epithelial tissues and propose that rapid immune surveillance and type 2 immunity are key regulators of tissue homeostasis and carcinogenesis

A chemical survey of exoplanets with ARIEL

Thousands of exoplanets have now been discovered with a huge range of masses, sizes and orbits: from rocky Earth-like planets to large gas giants grazing the surface of their host star. However, the essential nature of these exoplanets remains largely mysterious: there is no known, discernible pattern linking the presence, size, or orbital parameters of a planet to the nature of its parent star. We have little idea whether the chemistry of a planet is linked to its formation environment, or whether the type of host star drives the physics and chemistry of the planet’s birth, and evolution. ARIEL was conceived to observe a large number (~1000) of transiting planets for statistical understanding, including gas giants, Neptunes, super-Earths and Earth-size planets around a range of host star types using transit spectroscopy in the 1.25–7.8 μm spectral range and multiple narrow-band photometry in the optical. ARIEL will focus on warm and hot planets to take advantage of their well-mixed atmospheres which should show minimal condensation and sequestration of high-Z materials compared to their colder Solar System siblings. Said warm and hot atmospheres are expected to be more representative of the planetary bulk composition. Observations of these warm/hot exoplanets, and in particular of their elemental composition (especially C, O, N, S, Si), will allow the understanding of the early stages of planetary and atmospheric formation during the nebular phase and the following few million years. ARIEL will thus provide a representative picture of the chemical nature of the exoplanets and relate this directly to the type and chemical environment of the host star. ARIEL is designed as a dedicated survey mission for combined-light spectroscopy, capable of observing a large and well-defined planet sample within its 4-year mission lifetime. Transit, eclipse and phase-curve spectroscopy methods, whereby the signal from the star and planet are differentiated using knowledge of the planetary ephemerides, allow us to measure atmospheric signals from the planet at levels of 10–100 part per million (ppm) relative to the star and, given the bright nature of targets, also allows more sophisticated techniques, such as eclipse mapping, to give a deeper insight into the nature of the atmosphere. These types of observations require a stable payload and satellite platform with broad, instantaneous wavelength coverage to detect many molecular species, probe the thermal structure, identify clouds and monitor the stellar activity. The wavelength range proposed covers all the expected major atmospheric gases from e.g. H2O, CO2, CH4 NH3, HCN, H2S through to the more exotic metallic compounds, such as TiO, VO, and condensed species. Simulations of ARIEL performance in conducting exoplanet surveys have been performed – using conservative estimates of mission performance and a full model of all significant noise sources in the measurement – using a list of potential ARIEL targets that incorporates the latest available exoplanet statistics. The conclusion at the end of the Phase A study, is that ARIEL – in line with the stated mission objectives – will be able to observe about 1000 exoplanets depending on the details of the adopted survey strategy, thus confirming the feasibility of the main science objectives.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

The twilight of the Liberal Social Contract? On the Reception of Rawlsian Political Liberalism

This chapter discusses the Rawlsian project of public reason, or public justification-based 'political' liberalism, and its reception. After a brief philosophical rather than philological reconstruction of the project, the chapter revolves around a distinction between idealist and realist responses to it. Focusing on political liberalism’s critical reception illuminates an overarching question: was Rawls’s revival of a contractualist approach to liberal legitimacy a fruitful move for liberalism and/or the social contract tradition? The last section contains a largely negative answer to that question. Nonetheless the chapter's conclusion shows that the research programme of political liberalism provided and continues to provide illuminating insights into the limitations of liberal contractualism, especially under conditions of persistent and radical diversity. The programme is, however, less receptive to challenges to do with the relative decline of the power of modern states

Constitutivism

A brief explanation and overview of constitutivism