Recent developments towards optimality in multiple hypothesis testing

There are many different notions of optimality even in testing a single hypothesis. In the multiple testing area, the number of possibilities is very much greater. The paper first will describe multiplicity issues that arise in tests involving a single parameter, and will describe a new optimality result in that context. Although the example given is of minimal practical importance, it illustrates the crucial dependence of optimality on the precise specification of the testing problem. The paper then will discuss the types of expanded optimality criteria that are being considered when hypotheses involve multiple parameters, will note a few new optimality results, and will give selected theoretical references relevant to optimality considerations under these expanded criteria.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921706000000374 in the IMS Lecture Notes--Monograph Series (http://www.imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Four-colour photometry of eclipsing binaries. XLI uvby light curves for AD Bootis, HW Canis Majoris, SW Canis Majoris, V636 Centauri, VZ Hydrae, and WZ Ophiuchi

CONTEXT: Accurate mass, radius, and abundance determinations from binaries provide important information on stellar evolution, fundamental to central fields in modern astrophysics and cosmology. AIMS: Within the long-term Copenhagen Binary Project, we aim to obtain high-quality light curves and standard photometry for double-lined detached eclipsing binaries with late A, F, and G type main-sequence components, needed for the determination of accurate absolute dimensions and abundances, and for detailed comparisons with results from recent stellar evolutionary models. METHODS: Between March 1985 and July 2007, we carried out photometric observations of AD Boo, HW CMA, SW CMa, V636 Cen, VZ Hya, and WZ Oph at the Str"omgren Automatic Telescope at ESO, La Silla. RESULTS: We obtained complete uvby light curves, ephemerides, and standard uvby\beta indices for all six systems.For V636 Cen and HW CMa, we present the first modern light curves, whereas for AD Boo, SW CMa, VZ Hya, and WZ Oph, they are both more accurate and more complete than earlier data. Due to a high orbital eccentricity (e = 0.50), combined with a low orbital inclination (i = 84.7), only one eclipse, close to periastron, occurs for HW CMa. For the two other eccentric systems, V636 Cen (e = 0.134) and SW CMa (e = 0.316), apsidal motion has been detected with periods of 5270 +/- 335 and 14900 +/- 3600 years, respectively.Comment: Only change is: Bottom lines (hopefully) not truncated anymore. Accepted for publication in Astonomy & Astrophysic

MAJOR THEMES IN OUR FOREIGN POLICY

International Relations/Trade,

What Macroeconomic Conditions Best Explain Southeast Asian Capital Flows?

The paper examines the capital flows of seven Southeast Asian emerging economies over the last decade and a half. It first evaluates the role of economic conditions within a country itself, including the country's domestic financial conditions and the openness of its financial markets to international capital flows. Then, the role of the counties' own domestic conditions is compared with regional influences and with the importance of macroeconomic conditions elsewhere, such as in Europe, and in the largest single recipient of the outflows, the United States. Key results include: (1) domestic capital market conditions are the best predictors (among the variables that we examine) of the capital flows of these countries; (2) capital market openness is of little use in predicting changes in capital flows; and, (3) while the macroeconomic conditions of the United States are strong predictors of subsequent GDP growth in the region, they are not, by themselves, good predictors of the region's capital flows.Global Imbalances, Financial Market Capitalization, Productivity

INFLATION AND PRICE DISPERSION IN EQUITY MARKETS AND IN GOODS AND SERVICES MARKETS

An empirical link between inflation and price dispersion has been well established in goods and services markets – both across time periods and across countries. However, the economic interpretation of this link has been typically frustrated by the observational equivalence of the predictions of the prominent theories. This prompts us to take a new approach. Specifically, we examine the link between inflation and price dispersion in an empirical setting patently lacking the market characteristics central to these theories (i.e., menu costs, or relative/aggregate confusion). In particular, we benchmark the inflation-dispersion link in goods and services markets with a matched panel of equity market prices. Surprisingly, we find that a link – comparable to that found in markets for goods and services – does exist in the equity market. Moreover, we find that our results are not due to a potentially important, but generally overlooked, bias that is present in many existing studies. Our results suggest that the debate over the factors responsible for the inflation/price dispersion link should be broadened to account for the asset market links we document.relative price variability, stock markets, goods markets, inflation

Development and evaluation of a general aviation real world noise simulator

An acoustic playback system is described which realistically simulates the sounds experienced by the pilot of a general aviation aircraft during engine idle, take-off, climb, cruise, descent, and landing. The physical parameters of the signal as they appear in the simulator environment are compared to analogous parameters derived from signals recorded during actual flight operations. The acoustic parameters of the simulated and real signals during cruise conditions are within plus or minus two dB in third octave bands from 0.04 to 4 kHz. The overall A-weighted levels of the signals are within one dB of signals generated in the actual aircraft during equivalent maneuvers. Psychoacoustic evaluations of the simulator signal are compared with similar measurements based on transcriptions of actual aircraft signals. The subjective judgments made by human observers support the conclusion that the simulated sound closely approximates transcribed sounds of real aircraft

Refractory oxide insulated thermocouple designed and analyzed for high temperature applications

Study establishes design criteria for constructing high temperature thermocouple to measure nuclear fuel pin temperature. The study included a literature search to determine the compatibility of material useful for thermocouples, a hot zone error analysis, and a prototype design for hot junction and connector pin connections

Exchange Rate Pegs and Foreign Exchange Exposure in East Asia

This paper shows that many East Asian firms are significantly exposed to foreign exchange risk. Their exposure appears to be much more widespread than is typical for the large, western industrialized economies. The paper also shows that exchange rate pegs appear to do little to alleviate this widespread exposure against currencies other than the peg. The East Asian firms studied here are most exposed to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, and the mark and yen are important in a few countries. The extent of their exchange rate exposure has varied, but not diminished, over the last decade. The most widespread exchange rate sensitivity (not just the most exchange rate fluctuation) occurred during the Asian Crisis period; this is evident even after accounting for the local macroeconomic conditions that affect aggregate local returns.foreign exchange exposure, exchange rate pegs, east asia

Is There a Beijing Consensus on International Macroeconomic Policy

Some commentators have claimed that there is a growing Beijing Consensus among emerging and developing economies concerning the merits of ChinaÕs economic policies. Within an analytical framework provided by the well known international trilemma, this paper investigates the empirical evidence concerning this claim with specific reference to the adoption of international macroeconomic policies. We document ChinaÕs high degree of exchange rate stability and monetary independence and low degree of financial openness. We then find that there are substantial differences between what China does and what is done in other emerging and developing economies. While we discover some regional and inter-temporal variations, there seems to be little or no support for the existence of a Beijing Consensus on international macroeconomic pol- icy. The proximity of ChinaÕs policies to those in the rest of the developing world may increase in the future; but this is may reflect changes in China rather than elsewhere.Trilemma, China

Trilemma Stability and International Macroeconomic Archetypes in Developing Economies

In this paper, we examine the stability of international macroeconomic policies of developing countries in the post-Bretton Woods period. We use the simple geometry of the classic, open-economy trilemma to construct a new, univariate measure of inter- national macroeconomic policy stability, and to characterize international macroeconomic arrangements in terms of their semblance to definitive policy archetypes; and, we use the trilemma constraint to provide a new gauge of monetary sovereignty. Using these measures, we find that the greatest international macroeconomic stability among developing economies exists where there are capital controls and limited exchange rate flexibility. The least stable policies occur in the economies with flexible exchange rates and open financial markets. We also find that official holdings of foreign exchange re- serves seem to be weakly linked to greater policy stability, and their link is further weakened where financial markets are open.Trilemma, Foreign Exchange Rate Regimes, International Reserves, Financial Openness, Fear of Floating, Monetary Sovereignty