Celebrating the Physics in Geophysics

As 2005, the International Year of Physics, comes to an end, two physicists working primarily in geophysical research reflect on how geophysics is not an applied physics. Although geophysics has certainly benefited from progress in physics and sometimes emulated the reductionist program of mainstream physics, it has also educated the physics community about some of the generic behaviors of strongly nonlinear systems. Dramatic examples are the insights we have gained into the ``emergent'' phenomena of chaos, cascading instabilities, turbulence, self-organization, fractal structure, power-law variability, anomalous scaling, threshold dynamics, creep, fracture, and so on. In all of these examples, relatively simple models have been able to explain the recurring features of apparently very complex signals and fields. It appears that the future of the intricate relation between physics and geophysics will be as exciting as its past has been characterized by a mutual fascination. Physics departments in our universities should capitalize on this trend to attract and retain young talent motivated to address problems that really matter for the future of the planet. A pressing topic with huge impact on populations and that is challenging enough for both physics and geophysics communities to work together like never before is the understanding and prediction of extreme events.Comment: 6 pages, final version to appear in EOS-AGU Transactions in November 200

Bob Proudman: An Appreciation of a Groundbreaking Trails Career

Rebecca Oreskes writes an appreciation of the former Appalachian Mountain Club trail worker who build Garfield Ridge Campsite in the White Mountains and went on to direct trail projects on the Appalachian Trail

How earth science has become a social science

Many major questions in earth science research today are not matters of the behavior of physical systems alone, but of the interaction of physical and social systems. Information and assumptions about human behavior, human institutions and infrastructures, and human reactions and responses, as well as consideration of social and monetary costs, play a role in climate prediction, hydrological research, and earthquake risk assessment. The incorporation of social factors into “physical” models by scientists with little or no training in the humanities or social sciences creates ground for concern as to how well such factors are represented, and thus how reliable the resulting knowledge claims might be. Yet science studies scholars have scarcely noticed this shift, let alone analyzed it, despite its potentially profound epistemic – and potentially social – consequences

Climate change: Why the conspiracy theories are dangerous

Uncertainty surrounds the public understanding of climate change and provides fertile ground for conspiracy theories. Typically, such conspiracy theories assert that climate scientists and politicians are distorting or hijacking the science to suit their own purposes. Climate change conspiracy theories resemble other conspiracy theories in some respects, but in others they appear to be quite different. For example, climate change conspiracy theories appear to be motivated by the desire to deny or minimize an unwelcome and threatening conclusion. They also appear to be more contentious than other types of conspiracy theories. Perhaps to an unparalleled extent, people on both sides of the issue champion climate change conspiracy theories. Finally, more than other conspiracy theories, those concerning climate change appear to be more politically loaded, dividing opinion across the left-right continuum. Some empirical evidence suggests that climate change conspiracy theories may be harmful, steering people away from environmentally friendly initiatives. They therefore present a significant challenge for governments and environmental organizations that are attempting to convince people to take action against global warming

Potential emissions of CO2 and methane from proved reserves of fossil fuels: An alternative analysis

AbstractScientists have argued that no more than 275GtC (IPCC, 2013) of the world’s reserves of fossil fuels of 746GtC can be produced in this century if the world is to restrict anthropogenic climate change to ≤2°C. This has raised concerns about the risk of these reserves becoming “stranded assets” and creating a dangerous “carbon bubble” with serious impacts on global financial markets, leading in turn to discussions of appropriate investor and consumer actions. However, previous studies have not always clearly distinguished between reserves and resources, nor differentiated reserves held by investor-owned and state-owned companies with the capital, infrastructure, and capacity to develop them in the short term from those held by nation-states that may or may not have such capacity. This paper analyzes the potential emissions of CO2 and methane from the proved reserves as reported by the world's largest producers of oil, natural gas, and coal. We focus on the seventy companies and eight government-run industries that produced 63% of the world’s fossil fuels from 1750 to 2010 (Heede, 2014), and have the technological and financial capacity to develop these reserves. While any reserve analysis is subject to uncertainty, we demonstrate that production of these reported reserves will result in emissions of 440GtC of carbon dioxide, or 160% of the remaining 275GtC carbon budget. Of the 440GtC total, the 42 investor-owned oil, gas, and coal companies hold reserves with potential emissions of 44GtC (16% of the remaining carbon budget, hereafter RCB), whereas the 28 state-owned entities possess reserves of 210GtC (76% of the RCB). This analysis suggests that what may be needed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system differs when one considers the state-owned entities vs. the investor-owned entities. For the former, there is a profound risk involved simply in the prospect of their extracting their proved reserves. For the latter, the risk arises not so much from their relatively small proved reserves, but from their on-going exploration and development of new fossil fuel resources. For preventing DAI overall, effective action must include the state-owned companies, the investor-owned companies, and governments. However, given that the majority of the world's reserves are coal resources owned by governments with little capacity to extract them in the near term, we suggest that the more immediate urgency lies with the private sector, and that investor and consumer pressure should focus on phasing out these companies’ on-going exploration programs