Sustained diabetes risk reduction after real life and primary health care setting implementation of the diabetes in Europe prevention using lifestyle, physical activity and nutritional intervention (DE-PLAN) project

Background: Real life implementation studies performed in different settings and populations proved that lifestyle interventions in prevention of type 2 diabetes can be effective. However, little is known about long term results of these translational studies. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the maintenance of diabetes type 2 risk factor reduction achieved 1 year after intervention and during 3 year follow-up in primary health care setting in Poland. Methods: Study participants (n = 262), middle aged, slightly obese, with increased type 2 diabetes risk ((age 55.5 (SD = 11.3), BMI 32 (SD = 4.8), Finnish Diabetes Risk Score FINDRISC 18.4 (SD = 2.9)) but no diabetes at baseline, were invited for 1 individual and 10 group lifestyle counselling sessions as well as received 6 motivational phone calls and 2 letters followed by organized physical activity sessions combined with counselling to increase physical activity. Measurements were performed at baseline and then repeated 1 and 3 years after the initiation of the intervention. Results: One hundred five participants completed all 3 examinations (baseline age 56.6 (SD = 10.7)), BMI 31.1 (SD = 4.9)), FINDRISC 18.57 (SD = 3.09)). Males comprised 13% of the group, 10% of the patients presented impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and 14% impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). Mean weight of participants decreased by 2.27 kg (SD = 5.25) after 1 year (p = 5% was achieved after 1 and 3 years by 27 and 19% of the participants, respectively. Repeated measures analysis revealed significant changes observed from baseline to year 1 and year 3 in: weight (p = 0.048), BMI (p = 0.001), total cholesterol (p = 0.013), TG (p = 0.061), fasting glucose level (p = 0.037) and FINDRISC (p = 0.001) parameters. The conversion rate to diabetes was 2% after 1 year and 7% after 3 years. Conclusions: Type 2 diabetes prevention in real life primary health care setting through lifestyle intervention delivered by trained nurses leads to modest weight reduction, favorable cardiovascular risk factors changes and decrease of diabetes risk. These beneficial outcomes can be maintained at a 3-year follow-up.Peer reviewe

Predictors of completing a primary health care diabetes prevention intervention programme in people at high risk of type 2 diabetes Experiences of the DE-PLAN project

It has been shown that real-life implementation studies for the prevention of type 2 diabetes (DM2) performed in different settings and populations can be effective. However, not enough information is available on factors influencing the reach of DM2 prevention programmes. This study examines the predictors of completing an intervention programme targeted at people at high risk of DM2 in Krakow, Poland as part of the DE-PLAN project. A total of 262 middle-aged people, everyday patients of 9 general practitioners' (GP) practices, at high risk of DM2 (Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISK)>14) agreed to participate in the lifestyle intervention to prevent DM2. Intervention consisted of 11 lifestyle counseling sessions, organized physical activity sessions followed by motivational phone calls and letters. Measurements were performed at baseline and 1 year after the initiation of the intervention. Seventy percent of the study participants enrolled completed the core curriculum (n=184), 22% were men. When compared to noncompleters, completers had a healthier baseline diabetes risk profile (P In multiple logistic regression model, employment reduced the likelihood of completing the intervention 2 times (odds ratio [OR] 0.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.25-0.81). Higher glucose 2 hours after glucose load and hypertension were the independent factors decreasing the chance to participate in the intervention (OR 0.79, 95% 0.69-0.92 and OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.27-0.99, respectively). Daily consumption of vegetables and fruits increased the likelihood of completing the intervention (OR 1.86, 95% 1.01-3.41). In conclusion, people with healthier behavior and risk profile are more predisposed to complete diabetes prevention interventions. Male, those who work and those with a worse health profile, are less likely to participate and complete interventions. Targeted strategies are needed in real-life diabetes prevention interventions to improve male participation and to reach those who are working as well as people with a higher risk profile.Peer reviewe

Predictors of long term weight loss maintenance in patients at high risk of type 2 diabetes participating in a lifestyle intervention program in primary health care: The DE-PLAN study

Lifestyle interventions in type 2 diabetes (DM2) prevention implementation studies can be effective and lasting. Long-term weight loss maintenance enhances the intervention effect through a significant decrease in diabetes incidence over time. Our objective was to identify factors predicting long-term successful weight reduction maintenance achieved during a DM2 prevention program in patients with high DM2 risk in primary health care. Study participants (n = 263), middle-aged, slightly obese with baseline increased DM2 risk (Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC)\u3e14), but no diabetes were invited to receive 11 lifestyle counselling sessions, guided physical activity sessions and motivational support during 10- months. The study participants had three clinical examinations during the study (baseline, one and three years). Stepwise regression analysis was used to determine demographic, clinical, and lifestyle predictors of weight reduction maintenance two years after the discontinuation of the intervention. Out of 105 patients who completed all three examinations (baseline age 56.6 (standard deviation (SD) = 10.7), body mass index 31.1 kg/m2 (SD = 4.9), FINDRISC 18.6 (SD = 3.1)), 73 patients (70%) showed weight loss during the intervention (mean weight loss 4.2 kg, SD = 5.1). The total weight loss achieved in the maintainers (27 of 73 study participants) two years after the intervention had finished was 6.54 kg (4.47 kg+2.0 kg). The non-maintainers, on the other hand, returned to their initial weight at the start of the intervention (+0.21 kg). In multivariable analysis baseline history of increased glucose (odds ratio (OR) = 3.7; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0–13.6) and reduction of total fat in diet during follow-up (OR = 4.3; 95% CI 1.5–12.2) were independent predictors of successful weight loss. Further studies exploring predictors of weight loss maintenance in diabetes prevention are needed to help health care providers to redesign interventions and improve long-term outcomes of real life interventions

New mtDNA Association Model, MutPred Variant Load, Suggests Individuals With Multiple Mildly Deleterious mtDNA Variants Are More Likely to Suffer From Atherosclerosis

The etiology of common complex diseases is multifactorial, involving both genetic, and environmental factors. A role for mitochondrial dysfunction and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation has been suggested in the pathogenesis of common complex traits. The aim of this study was to investigate a potential role of mtDNA variants in the development of obesity, diabetes, and atherosclerosis in the Polish population. Whole mtDNA sequences from 415 Polish individuals representing three disease cohorts and a control group were obtained using high-throughput sequencing. Two approaches for the assessment of mtDNA variation were applied, traditional mitochondrial haplogroup association analysis and the mutational or variant load model using the MutPred pathogenicity prediction algorithm for amino acid substitutions in humans. We present a possible association between mildly deleterious mtDNA variant load and atherosclerosis that might be due to having more than one likely mildly deleterious non-synonymous substitution. Moreover, it seems largely dependent upon a few common haplogroup associated variants with MutPred score above 0.5

National trends in total cholesterol obscure heterogeneous changes in HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio : a pooled analysis of 458 population-based studies in Asian and Western countries

Background: Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol have opposite associations with coronary heart disease, multi-country reports of lipid trends only use total cholesterol (TC). Our aim was to compare trends in total, HDL and nonHDL cholesterol and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio in Asian and Western countries. Methods: We pooled 458 population-based studies with 82.1 million participants in 23 Asian and Western countries. We estimated changes in mean total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio by country, sex and age group. Results: Since similar to 1980, mean TC increased in Asian countries. In Japan and South Korea, the TC rise was due to rising HDL cholesterol, which increased by up to 0.17 mmol/L per decade in Japanese women; in China, it was due to rising non-HDL cholesterol. TC declined in Western countries, except in Polish men. The decline was largest in Finland and Norway, at similar to 0.4 mmol/L per decade. The decline in TC in most Western countries was the net effect of an increase in HDL cholesterol and a decline in non-HDL cholesterol, with the HDL cholesterol increase largest in New Zealand and Switzerland. Mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio declined in Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, by as much as similar to 0.7 per decade in Swiss men (equivalent to similar to 26% decline in coronary heart disease risk per decade). The ratio increased in China. Conclusions: HDL cholesterol has risen and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio has declined in many Western countries, Japan and South Korea, with only a weak correlation with changes in TC or non-HDL cholesterol.Peer reviewe

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe