Surface plasmon resonance of sparsely dispersed au nanoparticles in TiO2 photoanode of dye sensitised solar cells

Plasmonics is an emerging field that makes use of the nanoscale properties of metals, and its application in solar cells has seen a recent surge of interest [1]. Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSC) were fabricated by incorporating Au NPs into the TiO2 photoanode. The dye absorption is enhanced by the strong localized electric field from localized surface plasmon and the recombination and back reaction of electrons in DSSC is suppressed by depositing a thin TiO2 blocking layer over the TiO2:Au electrode. An increase in photoresponse was observed in the visible region with TiO2:Au electrode. In particular, we report the observation that a nanoparticles of a noble metal (Au) placed on top of the n-type widegap TiO2 that control the light emission angle can increase the short circuit current density and the quantum efficiency of the cell.FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia) for funding through the Ciencia 2007 programme and the pluriannual contract with CFUM and the European Commission through FP7-PEOPLE-2010-IRSES-NanoCIS (269279

Optoelectronic characterization of CuInGa(S)2 thin films grown by spray pyrolysis for photovoltaic application

[EN] Copper-indium gallium disulfide (CIGS) is a good absorber for photovoltaic application. Thin films of CIGS were prepared by spray pyrolysis on glass substrates in the ambient atmosphere. The films were characterized by different techniques, such as structural, morphological, optical and electrical properties of CIGS films were analyzed by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), atomic force microscopy (AFM), spectrophotometer and Hall effect, respectively. After optimization, the deposited films structure, grain size, and crystallinity became more important with an increase of annealing time at 370 degrees C for 20 min. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) analysis shows that the interface sheets are well crystallized and the inter planer distance are 0.25 nm, 0.28 nm, and 0.36 nm. The atomic force microscopy (AFM) observation shows that the grain size and roughness can be tolerated by optimizing the annealing time. The strong absorbance and low transmittance were observed for the prepared films with a suitable energy bandgap about 1.46 eV. The Hall effect measurement system examined that CIGS films exhibited optimal electrical properties, resistivity, carrier mobility, and carrier concentration which were determined to be 4.22 x 10(6) omega cm, 6.18 x 10(2) cm(2) V-1 S-1 and 4.22 x 10(6) cm(-3), respectively. The optoelectronic properties of CIGS material recommended being used for the photovoltaic application.Prof. Bouchaib HARTITI, The Senior Associate at ICTP, is very grateful to ICTP for permanent support. Prof. Mohamed Ebn Touhami, Director of the University Center for Analysis, Expertise, Transfer of Technology and Incubation, Kenitra, Morocco, is very grateful to CUA2TI for financial support. Thanks to Doctor Diogo M.F. Santos for the supervision of Amal Bouich's work during her research in CeFEMA research center. The authors also thank researchers from CeFEMA (IST-ULisboa, Portugal) and CUA2TI (FS-Kenitra Morocco) for their help.Bouich, A.; Hartiti, B.; Ullah, S.; Ullah, H.; Ebn Touhami, M.; Santos, DMF.; Marí, B. (2019). Optoelectronic characterization of CuInGa(S)2 thin films grown by spray pyrolysis for photovoltaic application. Applied Physics A. 125(8):1-9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00339-019-2874-4S191258T. Feurer, P. Reinhard, E. Avancini, B. Bissig, J. Löckinger, P. Fuchs, S. Buecheler, Progress in thin film CIGS photovoltaics–Research and development, manufacturing, and applications. Prog. Photovolt. Res. Appl. 25(7), 645–667 (2017)A. Zegadi, M.A. Slifkin, M. Djamin, A.E. Hill, R.D. Tomlinson, A photoacoustic study of CuInxGa1− xSe2 alloys. Phys. Status Solidi (A) 133(2), 533–540 (1992)T.H. Sajeesh, A.R. Warrier, C.S. Kartha, K.P. Vijayakumar, Optimization of parameters of chemical spray pyrolysis technique to get n and p-type layers of SnS. Thin Solid Films 518(15), 4370–4374 (2010)J. 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Yun, J. Gwak, D. Kim, K. Yoon, Effects of Ga contents on properties of CIGS thin films and solar cells fabricated by co-evaporation technique. Curr. Appl. Phys. 10(4), 990–996 (2010)S. R. Ovshinsky, X. Deng, R. Young, U.S. Patent No. 5,231,047. Washington, DC: U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (1993).M. Kaelin, D. Rudmann, A.N. Tiwari, Low cost processing of CIGS thin film solar cells. Sol. Energy 77(6), 749–756 (2004)Fangdan Jiang, Jiayou Feng, Effect of temperature on selenization process of metallic Cu–In alloy precursors. Thin Solid Films 515(4), 1950–1955 (2006)S. Shirakata, Y. Kannaka, H. Hasegawa, T. Kariya, S. Isomura, Properties of Cu (In, Ga) Se2 thin films prepared by chemical spray pyrolysis. Jpn. J. Appl. Phys. 38(9R), 4997 (1999)Y.K. Kumar, G.S. Babu, P.U. Bhaskar, V.S. Raja, Effect of starting-solution pH on the growth of Cu2ZnSnS4 thin films deposited by spray pyrolysis. Phys. Status Solidi (A) 206(7), 1525–1530 (2009)M. Ajili, M. Castagné, N.K. Turki, Characteristics of CuIn1− xGaxS2 thin films synthesized by chemical spray pyrolysis. J. Lumin. 150, 1–7 (2014)B.J. Babu, S. Velumani, A. Kassiba, R. Asomoza, J.A. Chavez-Carvayar, J. Yi, Deposition and characterization of graded Cu (In1-xGax) Se2 thin films by spray pyrolysis. Mater. Chem. Phys. 162, 59–68 (2015)S.F. Varol, G. Babür, G. Çankaya, U. Kölemen, Synthesis of sol–gel derived nano-crystalline ZnO thin films as TCO window layer: effect of sol aging and boron. RSC Adv. 4(100), 56645–56653 (2014)J.A. Frantz, R.Y. Bekele, V.Q. Nguyen, J.S. Sanghera, A. Bruce, S.V. Frolov, I.D. Aggarwal, Cu (In, Ga) Se2 thin films and devices sputtered from a single target without additional selenization. Thin Solid Films 519(22), 7763–7765 (2011)C. Calderón, G. Gordillo, P. Bartolo-Pérez, F. Mesa, Effect of the deposition conditions on the optical, morphological and compositional properties of CuIn1− xGaxSe2 thin films prepared by a multistage process. 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Rapid synthesis and enhancement in down conversion emission properties of BaAl2O4:Eu2+,RE3+ (RE3+=Y, Pr) nanophosphors

[EN] BaAl2O4:Eu2+,RE3+ (RE3+=Y, Pr) down conversion nanophosphors were prepared at 600 °C by a rapid gel combustion technique in presence of air using boron as flux and urea as a fuel. A comparative study of the prepared materials was carried out with and without the addition of boric acid. The boric acid was playing the important role of flux and reducer simultaneously. The peaks available in the XPS spectra of BaAl2O4:Eu2+ at 1126.5 and 1154.8 eV was ascribed to Eu2+(3d5/2) and Eu2+(3d3/2) respectively which confirmed the presence of Eu2+ ion in the prepared lattice. Morphology of phosphors was characterized by tunneling electron microscopy. XRD patterns revealed a dominant phase characteristics of hexagonal BaAl2O4 compound and the presence of dopants having unrecognizable effects on basic crystal structure of BaAl2O4. The addition of boric acid showed a remarkable change in luminescence properties and crystal size of nanophosphors. The emission spectra of phosphors had a broad band with maximum at 490–495 nm due to electron transition from 4f65d1 → 4f7 of Eu2+ ion. The codoping of the rare earth (RE3+=Y, Pr) ions help in the enhancement of their luminescent properties. The prepared phosphors had brilliant optoelectronic properties that can be properly used for solid state display device applications.The authors gratefully recognize the financial support from the University Grant Commission (UGC), New Delhi [MRP-40-73/2011(SR)] and the European Commission through Nano CIS project (FP7-PEOPLE-2010-IRSES ref. 269279).Singh, D.; Tanwar, V.; Simantilke, AP.; Marí, B.; Kadyan, PS.; Singh, I. (2016). Rapid synthesis and enhancement in down conversion emission properties of BaAl2O4:Eu2+,RE3+ (RE3+=Y, Pr) nanophosphors. Journal of Materials Science: Materials in Electronics. 27(3):2260-2266. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10854-015-4020-1S22602266273J.S. Kim, P.E. Jeon, J.C. Choi, H.L. Park, S.I. Mho, G.C. Kim, Appl Phys Lett 84, 2931 (2004)D. Jia, D.N. Hunter, J Appl Phys 100, 1131251 (2006)H. Aizawa, T. Katsumata, J. Takahashi, K. Matsunaga, S. Komuro, T. Morikawa, E. Toba, Rev Sci Instrum 74, 1344 (2003)C.N. Xu, X.G. Zheng, M. Akiyama, K. Nonaka, T. Watanabe, Appl Phys Lett 76, 179 (2000)C. Feldmann, T. Justel, C.R. Ronda, P.J. Schmidt, Adv Funct Mater 13, 511 (2004)P.J. Saines, M.M. Elcombe, B.J. Kennedy, J Solid State Chem 179, 613 (2006)R. Sakai, T. Katsumata, S. Komuro, T. Morikawa, J Lumin 85, 149 (1999)T. Aitasalo, P. Deren, J Solid State Chem 171, 114 (2003)S. Nakamura, T. Mukai, M. Senoh, J Appl Phys 76, 8189 (1994)S.H.M. Poort, G. Blasse, J Lumin 72, 247 (1997)P. Mingying, H. Guangyan, J Lumin 127, 735 (2007)X. Linjiu, H. Mingrui, T. Yanwen, C. Yongjie, K. Tomoaki, Z. Liqing, W. Ning, Jap J Applied Physics 46, 5871 (2007)T. Aitasalo, J. Hölsä, H. Jungner, M. Lastusaari, J. Niittykoski, J Phys Chem B 110, 4589 (2006)R. Stefani, L.C.V. Rodrigues, C.A.A. Carvalho, M.C.F.C. Felinto, H.F. Brito, M. Lastusaari, J. Hölsä, Opt Mater 31, 1815 (2009)M. Peng, G. Hong, J Lumin 127, 735 (2007)V. Singh, V. Natarajan, J.J. Zhu, Opt Mater 29, 1447 (2007)X.Y. Chen, C. Ma, X.X. Li, C.W. Shi, X.L. Li, D.R. Lu, J Phys Chem C 113, 2685 (2009)A.J. Zarur, J.Y. Ying, Nature 403, 65 (2000)J. Chen, F. Gu, C. Li, Cry Growth Des 8, 3175 (2008)J. Zhang, M. Yang, H. Jin, X. Wang, X. Zhao, X. Liu, L. Peng, Mater Res Bull 47, 247 (2012)P. Maślankiewicz, J. Szade, A. Winiarski, Ph Daniel, Cryst Res Technol 40, 410 (2005)Y.J. Chen, G.M. Qiu, Y.B. Sun et al., J Rare Earths 20, 50 (2002)F.C. Palilla, A.K. Levine, M.R. Tomkus, J Electrochem Soc 115, 642 (1968)J. Niittykoski, T. Aitasalo, J. Holsa, H. Jungner, M. Lastusaari, M. Parkkinen, M. Tukia, J Alloys Compd 374, 108 (2004)A. Nag, T.R.N. Kutty, J Alloys Compd 354, 221 (2003)D. Haranath, P. Sharma, H. Chander, J Phys D Appl Phys 38, 371 (2005

Numerical study of the influence of ZnTe thickness on CdS/ZnTe solar cell performance

At present most of II–VI semiconductor based solar cells use the CdTe material as an absorber film. The simulation of its performance is realized by means of various numerical modelling programs. We have modelled a solar cell based on zinc telluride (ZnTe) thin film as absorber in substitution to the CdTe material, which contains the cadmium element known by its toxicity. The performance of such photovoltaic device has been numerically simulated and the thickness of the absorber layer has been optimized to give the optimal conversion efficiency. A photovoltaic device consisting of a ZnTe layer as absorber, CdS as the buffer layer and ZnO as a window layer was modelled through Solar Cell Capacitance Simulator Software. Dark and illuminated I-V characteristics and the results for different output parameters of ZnO/CdS/ZnTe solar cell were analyzed. The effect of ZnTe absorber thickness on different main working parameters such as: open-circuit voltage Voc, short-circuit current density Jsc, fill factor FF, photovoltaic conversion efficiency η was intensely studied in order to optimize ZnTe film thickness. This study reveals that increasing the thickness of ZnTe absorber layer results in higher efficiency until a maximum value and then decreases slightly. This maximum was found to be 10% at ZnTe optimum thickness close to 2 μm.Skhouni, O.; El Manouni, A.; Marí, B.; Ullah, H. (2016). Numerical study of the influence of ZnTe thickness on CdS/ZnTe solar cell performance. European Physical Journal: Applied Physics. 74(2):24602-1-24602-6. doi:10.1051/epjap/2015150365S24602-124602-6742Kaneta, A., & Adachi, S. (2000). Photoreflectance study in theE1andE1+Delta1transition regions of ZnTe. Journal of Physics D: Applied Physics, 33(8), 901-905. doi:10.1088/0022-3727/33/8/303Fang F., Mc Candless B.E., Opila R.L., I.E.E.E. 001258 (2009)Pistone, A., Arico, A. ., Antonucci, P. ., Silvestro, D., & Antonucci, V. (1998). Preparation and characterization of thin film ZnCuTe semiconductors. Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, 53(3-4), 255-267. doi:10.1016/s0927-0248(98)00013-0Han, D.-H., Choi, S.-J., & Park, S.-M. (2003). Electrochemical Preparation of Zinc Telluride Films on Gold Electrodes. Journal of The Electrochemical Society, 150(5), C342. doi:10.1149/1.1565136Luque, A., & Martí, A. (1997). Increasing the Efficiency of Ideal Solar Cells by Photon Induced Transitions at Intermediate Levels. Physical Review Letters, 78(26), 5014-5017. doi:10.1103/physrevlett.78.5014Dhomkar, S., Manna, U., Peng, L., Moug, R., Noyan, I. C., Tamargo, M. C., & Kuskovsky, I. L. (2013). Feasibility of submonolayer ZnTe/ZnCdSe quantum dots as intermediate band solar cell material system. Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, 117, 604-609. doi:10.1016/j.solmat.2013.07.037Wang, W., Lin, A. S., & Phillips, J. D. (2009). Intermediate-band photovoltaic solar cell based on ZnTe:O. Applied Physics Letters, 95(1), 011103. doi:10.1063/1.3166863Araújo, G. L., & Martí, A. (1994). Absolute limiting efficiencies for photovoltaic energy conversion. Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, 33(2), 213-240. doi:10.1016/0927-0248(94)90209-7Luque, A. (2001). Photovoltaic market and costs forecast based on a demand elasticity model. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 9(4), 303-312. doi:10.1002/pip.371Luque, A., & Martí, A. (2010). The Intermediate Band Solar Cell: Progress Toward the Realization of an Attractive Concept. Advanced Materials, 22(2), 160-174. doi:10.1002/adma.200902388Amin, N., Isaka, T., Yamada, A., & Konagai, M. (2001). Highly efficient 1μm thick CdTe solar cells with textured TCOs. Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, 67(1-4), 195-201. doi:10.1016/s0927-0248(00)00281-6Amin, N., Sopian, K., & Konagai, M. (2007). Numerical modeling of CdS/CdTe and CdS/CdTe/ZnTe solar cells as a function of CdTe thickness. Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, 91(13), 1202-1208. doi:10.1016/j.solmat.2007.04.006Williams, B. L., Major, J. D., Bowen, L., Phillips, L., Zoppi, G., Forbes, I., & Durose, K. (2014). Challenges and prospects for developing CdS/CdTe substrate solar cells on Mo foils. Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, 124, 31-38. doi:10.1016/j.solmat.2014.01.017Burgelman, M., Nollet, P., & Degrave, S. (2000). Modelling polycrystalline semiconductor solar cells. Thin Solid Films, 361-362, 527-532. doi:10.1016/s0040-6090(99)00825-1Ullah, H., & Marí, B. (2014). Numerical analysis of SnS based polycrystalline solar cells. Superlattices and Microstructures, 72, 148-155. doi:10.1016/j.spmi.2014.03.042Skhouni, O., El Manouni, A., Mollar, M., Schrebler, R., & Marí, B. (2014). ZnTe thin films grown by electrodeposition technique on Fluorine Tin Oxide substrates. Thin Solid Films, 564, 195-200. doi:10.1016/j.tsf.2014.06.002Shockley, W., & Read, W. T. (1952). Statistics of the Recombinations of Holes and Electrons. Physical Review, 87(5), 835-842. doi:10.1103/physrev.87.835Fan, Z., & Lu, J. G. (2005). Zinc Oxide Nanostructures: Synthesis and Properties. Journal of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology, 5(10), 1561-1573. doi:10.1166/jnn.2005.182Verity, D., Bryant, F. J., Scott, C. G., & Shaw, D. (1983). Deep level transient spectroscopy of hole traps in Zn-annealed ZnTe. Solid State Communications, 46(11), 795-798. doi:10.1016/0038-1098(83)90004-

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors 2017 includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. METHODS: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2)

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks