Enviro-HIRLAM online integrated meteorology-chemistry modelling system: strategy, methodology, developments and applications (v7.2)

This is the final version. Available on open access from the European Geosciences Union via the DOI in this recordCode and data availability. The Enviro-HIRLAM modelling system is a community model. The source code is available for non-commercial use (i.e. research, development and science education) upon agreement through contact with Bent Hansen Sass ([email protected]) and Roman Nuterman ([email protected]). Documentation, educational materials and practical exercises are available from http://hirlam.org and http://hirlam.org/index.php/ documentation/chemistry-branch, and YSSS training schools (http: //netfam.fmi.fi/YSSS08, http://www.ysss.osenu.org.ua and http:// aveirosummerschool2014.web.ua.pt).The Environment – High Resolution Limited Area Model (Enviro-HIRLAM) is developed as a fully online integrated numerical weather prediction (NWP) and atmospheric chemical transport (ACT) model for research and forecasting of joint meteorological, chemical and biological weather. The integrated modelling system is developed by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) in collaboration with several European universities. It is the baseline system in the HIRLAM Chemical Branch and used in several countries and different applications. The development was initiated at DMI more than 15 years ago. The model is based on the HIRLAM NWP model with online integrated pollutant transport and dispersion, chemistry, aerosol dynamics, deposition and atmospheric composition feedbacks. To make the model suitable for chemical weather forecasting in urban areas, the meteorological part was improved by implementation of urban parameterisations. The dynamical core was improved by implementing a locally mass-conserving semi-Lagrangian numerical advection scheme, which improves forecast accuracy and model performance. The current version (7.2), in comparison with previous versions, has a more advanced and cost-efficient chemistry, aerosol multi-compound approach, aerosol feedbacks (direct and semi-direct) on radiation and (first and second indirect effects) on cloud microphysics. Since 2004, the Enviro-HIRLAM has been used for different studies, including operational pollen forecasting for Denmark since 2009 and operational forecasting atmospheric composition with downscaling for China since 2017. Following the main research and development strategy, further model developments will be extended towards the new NWP platform – HARMONIE. Different aspects of online coupling methodology, research strategy and possible applications of the modelling system, and fit-for-purpose model configurations for the meteorological and air quality communities are discussed

Measurement of the Bottom-Strange Meson Mixing Phase in the Full CDF Data Set

We report a measurement of the bottom-strange meson mixing phase \beta_s using the time evolution of B0_s -> J/\psi (->\mu+\mu-) \phi (-> K+ K-) decays in which the quark-flavor content of the bottom-strange meson is identified at production. This measurement uses the full data set of proton-antiproton collisions at sqrt(s)= 1.96 TeV collected by the Collider Detector experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron, corresponding to 9.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity. We report confidence regions in the two-dimensional space of \beta_s and the B0_s decay-width difference \Delta\Gamma_s, and measure \beta_s in [-\pi/2, -1.51] U [-0.06, 0.30] U [1.26, \pi/2] at the 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model expectation. Assuming the standard model value of \beta_s, we also determine \Delta\Gamma_s = 0.068 +- 0.026 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps-1 and the mean B0_s lifetime, \tau_s = 1.528 +- 0.019 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps, which are consistent and competitive with determinations by other experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, Phys. Rev. Lett 109, 171802 (2012

Perceived Social Support Network and Achievement : Mediation by Motivational Beliefs and Moderation by Gender

Research has shown that perceived social support (PSS) (from parents and teachers) influences achievement. However, little is known about how this relationship operates. This study examines the multiple mediational effects of students’ motivational beliefs in relationship to the association between PSS and mathematics achievement. The sample included the African countries that participated in the TIMSS 2011 (Ghana, Botswana, South Africa, Morocco, and Tunisia). A bootstrap analysis indicated a unique pattern of the role of motivational beliefs in mediating the relationships between PSS and achievement. Moreover, gender was found to moderate the indirect effect in some countries. The findings indicate that total mediation effect of students’ motivational belief on the relationship between PSS and achievement is “culture-fair but not culture-free”Research has shown that perceived social support (PSS) (from parents and teachers) influences achievement. However, little is known about how this relationship operates. This study examines the multiple mediational effects of students’ motivational beliefs in relationship to the association between PSS and mathematics achievement. The sample included the African countries that participated in the TIMSS 2011 (Ghana, Botswana, South Africa, Morocco, and Tunisia). A bootstrap analysis indicated a unique pattern of the role of motivational beliefs in mediating the relationships between PSS and achievement. Moreover, gender was found to moderate the indirect effect in some countries. The findings indicate that total mediation effect of students’ motivational belief on the relationship between PSS and achievement is “culture-fair but not culture-free”.Peer reviewe

Co-existence of physiologically similar sulfate-reducing bacteria in a full-scale sulfidogenic bioreactor fed with a single organic electron donor

A combination of culture-dependent and independent methods was used to study the co-existence of different sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) in an upflow anaerobic sludge bed reactor treating sulfate-rich wastewater. The wastewater was fed with ethanol as an external electron donor. Twenty six strains of SRB were randomly picked and isolated from the highest serial dilution that showed growth (i.e. 108). Repetitive enterobacterial palindromic polymerase chain reaction and whole cell protein profiling revealed a low genetic diversity, with only two genotypes among the 26 strains obtained in the pure culture. The low genetic diversity suggests the absence of micro-niches within the reactor, which might be due to a low spatial and temporal micro-heterogeneity. The total 16S rDNA sequencing of two representative strains L3 and L7 indicated a close relatedness to the genus Desulfovibrio. The two strains differed in as many as five physiological traits, which might allow them to occupy distinct niches and thus co-exist within the same habitat. Whole cell hybridisation with fluorescently labeled oligonucleotide probes was performed to characterise the SRB community in the reactor. The isolated strains Desulfovibrio L3 and Desulfovibrio L7 were the most dominant SRB, representing 30–35% and 25–35%, respectively, of the total SRB community. Desulfobulbus-like bacteria contributed for 20–25%, and the Desulfobacca acetoxidans-specific probe targeted approximately 15–20% of the total SRB. The whole cell hybridisation results thus revealed a consortium of four different species of SRB that can be enriched and maintained on a single energy source in a full-scale sulfidogenic reactor

The impact of viral mutations on recognition by SARS-CoV-2 specific T cells.

We identify amino acid variants within dominant SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes by interrogating global sequence data. Several variants within nucleocapsid and ORF3a epitopes have arisen independently in multiple lineages and result in loss of recognition by epitope-specific T cells assessed by IFN-γ and cytotoxic killing assays. Complete loss of T cell responsiveness was seen due to Q213K in the A∗01:01-restricted CD8+ ORF3a epitope FTSDYYQLY207-215; due to P13L, P13S, and P13T in the B∗27:05-restricted CD8+ nucleocapsid epitope QRNAPRITF9-17; and due to T362I and P365S in the A∗03:01/A∗11:01-restricted CD8+ nucleocapsid epitope KTFPPTEPK361-369. CD8+ T cell lines unable to recognize variant epitopes have diverse T cell receptor repertoires. These data demonstrate the potential for T cell evasion and highlight the need for ongoing surveillance for variants capable of escaping T cell as well as humoral immunity.This work is supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC); Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences(CAMS) Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS), China; National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and UK Researchand Innovation (UKRI)/NIHR through the UK Coro-navirus Immunology Consortium (UK-CIC). Sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 samples and collation of data wasundertaken by the COG-UK CONSORTIUM. COG-UK is supported by funding from the Medical ResearchCouncil (MRC) part of UK Research & Innovation (UKRI),the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR),and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute. T.I.d.S. is supported by a Well-come Trust Intermediate Clinical Fellowship (110058/Z/15/Z). L.T. is supported by the Wellcome Trust(grant number 205228/Z/16/Z) and by theUniversity of Liverpool Centre for Excellence in Infectious DiseaseResearch (CEIDR). S.D. is funded by an NIHR GlobalResearch Professorship (NIHR300791). L.T. and S.C.M.are also supported by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Medical Countermeasures Initiative contract75F40120C00085 and the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) inEmerging and Zoonotic Infections (NIHR200907) at University of Liverpool inpartnership with Public HealthEngland (PHE), in collaboration with Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and the University of Oxford.L.T. is based at the University of Liverpool. M.D.P. is funded by the NIHR Sheffield Biomedical ResearchCentre (BRC – IS-BRC-1215-20017). ISARIC4C is supported by the MRC (grant no MC_PC_19059). J.C.K.is a Wellcome Investigator (WT204969/Z/16/Z) and supported by NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centreand CIFMS. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or MRC

A core outcome set for pre‐eclampsia research: an international consensus development study

Objective To develop a core outcome set for pre‐eclampsia. Design Consensus development study. Setting International. Population Two hundred and eight‐one healthcare professionals, 41 researchers and 110 patients, representing 56 countries, participated. Methods Modified Delphi method and Modified Nominal Group Technique. Results A long‐list of 116 potential core outcomes was developed by combining the outcomes reported in 79 pre‐eclampsia trials with those derived from thematic analysis of 30 in‐depth interviews of women with lived experience of pre‐eclampsia. Forty‐seven consensus outcomes were identified from the Delphi process following which 14 maternal and eight offspring core outcomes were agreed at the consensus development meeting. Maternal core outcomes: death, eclampsia, stroke, cortical blindness, retinal detachment, pulmonary oedema, acute kidney injury, liver haematoma or rupture, abruption, postpartum haemorrhage, raised liver enzymes, low platelets, admission to intensive care required, and intubation and ventilation. Offspring core outcomes: stillbirth, gestational age at delivery, birthweight, small‐for‐gestational‐age, neonatal mortality, seizures, admission to neonatal unit required and respiratory support. Conclusions The core outcome set for pre‐eclampsia should underpin future randomised trials and systematic reviews. Such implementation should ensure that future research holds the necessary reach and relevance to inform clinical practice, enhance women's care and improve the outcomes of pregnant women and their babies

Low-frequency variation in TP53 has large effects on head circumference and intracranial volume.

Cranial growth and development is a complex process which affects the closely related traits of head circumference (HC) and intracranial volume (ICV). The underlying genetic influences shaping these traits during the transition from childhood to adulthood are little understood, but might include both age-specific genetic factors and low-frequency genetic variation. Here, we model the developmental genetic architecture of HC, showing this is genetically stable and correlated with genetic determinants of ICV. Investigating up to 46,000 children and adults of European descent, we identify association with final HC and/or final ICV + HC at 9 novel common and low-frequency loci, illustrating that genetic variation from a wide allele frequency spectrum contributes to cranial growth. The largest effects are reported for low-frequency variants within TP53, with 0.5 cm wider heads in increaser-allele carriers versus non-carriers during mid-childhood, suggesting a previously unrecognized role of TP53 transcripts in human cranial development

Spatial growth rate of emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages in England, September 2020-December 2021

This paper uses a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis to assess the spatial growth rate of multiple lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in the local authority areas of England, September 2020–December 2021. Using the genomic surveillance records of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, the analysis identifies a substantial (7.6-fold) difference in the average rate of spatial growth of 37 sample lineages, from the slowest (Delta AY.4.3) to the fastest (Omicron BA.1). Spatial growth of the Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA) variant was found to be 2.81× faster than the Delta (B.1.617.2 and AY) variant and 3.76× faster than the Alpha (B.1.1.7 and Q) variant. In addition to AY.4.2 (a designated variant under investigation, VUI-21OCT-01), three Delta sublineages (AY.43, AY.98 and AY.120) were found to display a statistically faster rate of spatial growth than the parent lineage and would seem to merit further investigation. We suggest that the monitoring of spatial growth rates is a potentially valuable adjunct to outbreak response procedures for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in a defined population

Investigation of hospital discharge cases and SARS-CoV-2 introduction into Lothian care homes

Summary Background The first epidemic wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Scotland resulted in high case numbers and mortality in care homes. In Lothian, over one-third of care homes reported an outbreak, while there was limited testing of hospital patients discharged to care homes. Aim To investigate patients discharged from hospitals as a source of SARS-CoV-2 introduction into care homes during the first epidemic wave. Methods A clinical review was performed for all patients discharges from hospitals to care homes from 1st March 2020 to 31st May 2020. Episodes were ruled out based on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) test history, clinical assessment at discharge, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data and an infectious period of 14 days. Clinical samples were processed for WGS, and consensus genomes generated were used for analysis using Cluster Investigation and Virus Epidemiological Tool software. Patient timelines were obtained using electronic hospital records. Findings In total, 787 patients discharged from hospitals to care homes were identified. Of these, 776 (99%) were ruled out for subsequent introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into care homes. However, for 10 episodes, the results were inconclusive as there was low genomic diversity in consensus genomes or no sequencing data were available. Only one discharge episode had a genomic, time and location link to positive cases during hospital admission, leading to 10 positive cases in their care home. Conclusion The majority of patients discharged from hospitals were ruled out for introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into care homes, highlighting the importance of screening all new admissions when faced with a novel emerging virus and no available vaccine

SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics in England from September to November 2021: high diversity of Delta sub-lineages and increased transmissibility of AY.4.2

Background: Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, evolutionary pressure has driven large increases in the transmissibility of the virus. However, with increasing levels of immunity through vaccination and natural infection the evolutionary pressure will switch towards immune escape. Genomic surveillance in regions of high immunity is crucial in detecting emerging variants that can more successfully navigate the immune landscape. Methods: We present phylogenetic relationships and lineage dynamics within England (a country with high levels of immunity), as inferred from a random community sample of individuals who provided a self-administered throat and nose swab for rt-PCR testing as part of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study. During round 14 (9 September–27 September 2021) and 15 (19 October–5 November 2021) lineages were determined for 1322 positive individuals, with 27.1% of those which reported their symptom status reporting no symptoms in the previous month. Results: We identified 44 unique lineages, all of which were Delta or Delta sub-lineages, and found a reduction in their mutation rate over the study period. The proportion of the Delta sub-lineage AY.4.2 was increasing, with a reproduction number 15% (95% CI 8–23%) greater than the most prevalent lineage, AY.4. Further, AY.4.2 was less associated with the most predictive COVID-19 symptoms (p = 0.029) and had a reduced mutation rate (p = 0.050). Both AY.4.2 and AY.4 were found to be geographically clustered in September but this was no longer the case by late October/early November, with only the lineage AY.6 exhibiting clustering towards the South of England. Conclusions: As SARS-CoV-2 moves towards endemicity and new variants emerge, genomic data obtained from random community samples can augment routine surveillance data without the potential biases introduced due to higher sampling rates of symptomatic individuals. © 2022, The Author(s)