The Wind Energy Potential of Iceland

AbstractDownscaling simulations performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were used to determine the large-scale wind energy potential of Iceland. Local wind speed distributions are represented by Weibull statistics. The shape parameter across Iceland varies between 1.2 and 3.6, with the lowest values indicative of near-exponential distributions at sheltered locations, and the highest values indicative of normal distributions at exposed locations in winter. Compared with summer, average power density in winter is increased throughout Iceland by a factor of 2.0–5.5. In any season, there are also considerable spatial differences in average wind power density. Relative to the average value within 10 km of the coast, power density across Iceland varies between 50 and 250%, excluding glaciers, or between 300 and 1500 W m−2 at 50 m above ground level in winter. At intermediate elevations of 500–1000 m above mean sea level, power density is independent of the distance to the coast. In addition to seasonal and spatial variability, differences in average wind speed and power density also exist for different wind directions. Along the coast in winter, power density of onshore winds is higher by 100–700 W m−2 than that of offshore winds. Based on these results, 14 test sites were selected for more detailed analyses using the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP)

Cluster of Sylvatic Epidemic Typhus Cases Associated with Flying Squirrels, 2004–2006

Infected persons had slept in an infested cabin

The spectacular human nose: an amplifier of individual quality?

Amplifiers are signals that improve the perception of underlying differences in quality. They are cost free and advantageous to high quality individuals, but disadvantageous to low quality individuals, as poor quality is easier perceived because of the amplifier. For an amplifier to evolve, the average fitness benefit to the high quality individuals should be higher than the average cost for the low quality individuals. The human nose is, compared to the nose of most other primates, extraordinary large, fragile and easily broken—especially in male–male interactions. May it have evolved as an amplifier among high quality individuals, allowing easy assessment of individual quality and influencing the perception of attractiveness? We tested the latter by manipulating the position of the nose tip or, as a control, the mouth in facial pictures and had the pictures rated for attractiveness. Our results show that facial attractiveness failed to be influenced by mouth manipulations. Yet, facial attractiveness increased when the nose tip was artificially centered according to other facial features. Conversely, attractiveness decreased when the nose tip was displaced away from its central position. Our results suggest that our evaluation of attractiveness is clearly sensitive to the centering of the nose tip, possibly because it affects our perception of the face’s symmetry and/or averageness. However, whether such centering is related to individual quality remains unclear

“Crocodiles in the corridors” : security vetting, race and Whitehall, 1945 – 1968

In July 2018, the UK’s Intelligence & Security Committee issued a report into diversity and inclusion across the intelligence and security community. The picture the report painted was far from satisfactory; in short, Britain’s intelligence agencies did not ‘fully reflect the ethnic make-up of modern Britain’. The report argued that Britain’s spy agencies – MI5, SIS (or MI6) and GCHQ – should improve black, Asian and ethnic minority recruitment, highlighting areas for improvement, especially around the vetting of recruits. This problem stems from the post-war Cold War 'security state' and the development of security-vetting programmes from the 1940s, aiming to protect Whitehall from Soviet spies and 'fellow travellers' to those with so-called 'character defects' - drink, drugs and homosexuality. But this 'security state' also saw the newly emerging multicultural Britain as a major threat. The so-called 'Windrush Generation' of migrants from the Caribbean, and migration from the Indian subcontinent and Africa, forever changed the social complexion of Britain, but posed significant questions for security officials. What was Britishness? With first or second generation migrants entering the civil service, who was a 'UK eye' and what access to secret information should they have? To what extent was discrimination justifiable to protect state secrets, and how should officials respond to new legislation such as the Race Discrimination Act? As this article shows, new entrants to the civil service faced deeply engrained prejudices, and questions over their loyalty to Britain. As late as the 1960s (and beyond), 'coloured' members of the civil service were rejected from secret posts across government, including the Ministry of Defence and intelligence and security services, especially MI5 and GCHQ, with discrimination on ‘security’ grounds justified by the landmark 1968 Race Relations Act, which barred race discrimination for housing and employment elsewhere

Circulating microRNAs in sera correlate with soluble biomarkers of immune activation but do not predict mortality in ART treated individuals with HIV-1 infection: A case control study

Introduction: The use of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) has dramatically reduced HIV-1 associated morbidity and mortality. However, HIV-1 infected individuals have increased rates of morbidity and mortality compared to the non-HIV-1 infected population and this appears to be related to end-organ diseases collectively referred to as Serious Non-AIDS Events (SNAEs). Circulating miRNAs are reported as promising biomarkers for a number of human disease conditions including those that constitute SNAEs. Our study sought to investigate the potential of selected miRNAs in predicting mortality in HIV-1 infected ART treated individuals. Materials and Methods: A set of miRNAs was chosen based on published associations with human disease conditions that constitute SNAEs. This case: control study compared 126 cases (individuals who died whilst on therapy), and 247 matched controls (individuals who remained alive). Cases and controls were ART treated participants of two pivotal HIV-1 trials. The relative abundance of each miRNA in serum was measured, by RTqPCR. Associations with mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular and malignancy) were assessed by logistic regression analysis. Correlations between miRNAs and CD4+ T cell count, hs-CRP, IL-6 and D-dimer were also assessed. Results: None of the selected miRNAs was associated with all-cause, cardiovascular or malignancy mortality. The levels of three miRNAs (miRs -21, -122 and -200a) correlated with IL-6 while miR-21 also correlated with D-dimer. Additionally, the abundance of miRs -31, -150 and -223, correlated with baseline CD4+ T cell count while the same three miRNAs plus miR- 145 correlated with nadir CD4+ T cell count. Discussion: No associations with mortality were found with any circulating miRNA studied. These results cast doubt onto the effectiveness of circulating miRNA as early predictors of mortality or the major underlying diseases that contribute to mortality in participants treated for HIV-1 infection

Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Chronic Kidney Disease in HIV Infection Using Prospective Cohort Data from the D:A:D Study

Ristola M. on työryhmien DAD Study Grp ; Royal Free Hosp Clin Cohort ; INSIGHT Study Grp ; SMART Study Grp ; ESPRIT Study Grp jäsen.Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. Methods and Findings A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with >= 3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7-6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3-9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was -2 (interquartile range -4 to 2). There was a 1: 393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score = 5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1,702 (95% CI 1,166-3,367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159-278) and 21 (95% CI 19-23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506-1462), 88 (95% CI 69-121), and 9 (95% CI 8-10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor. The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2,548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18,376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3-12.7 y). Of 2,013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8,452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6-8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria. Conclusions Both traditional and HIV-related risk factors were predictive of CKD. These factors were used to develop a risk score for CKD in HIV infection, externally validated, that has direct clinical relevance for patients and clinicians to weigh the benefits of certain antiretrovirals against the risk of CKD and to identify those at greatest risk of CKD.Peer reviewe

An experimental study of flow in a nozzle designed to provide a parallel jet at supersonic speed

This thesis document was issued under the authority of another institution, not NPS. At the time it was written, a copy was added to the NPS Library collection for reasons not now known. It has been included in the digital archive for its historical value to NPS. Not believed to be a CIVINS (Civilian Institutions) title.http://www.archive.org/details/experimentalstud00hennU.S. Navy (U.S.N.) authors

Selection of Syndromes and Algorithms for Monitoring Bovine Laboratory Test Data

ObjectiveStandardize selection of indicator data streams and corresponding alerting algorithms for syndromic, reportable disease, and confirmed diagnostic categories derived from veterinary laboratory test order data for bovines.IntroductionThe Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory is collaborating with epidemiologists of the US Dept. of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health (CEAH) to increase animal health surveillance capacity. CEAH monitors selected syndromic animal health indicators for stakeholder reporting. This project’s goal was to extend this capacity to bovine veterinary laboratory test accession data.MethodsIndicators for weekly monitoring were derived from bovine test records from the Colorado State University Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory System from 27 Jun 2010 - 29 May 2016. Selected indicator types were syndromic test orders, disease-specific orders, and disease-specific positive results. Indicators were adopted if APHIS epidemiologists considered them worth monitoring and if they were represented by at least 100 lab accessions.Ten syndromes were chosen for routine monitoring based on body systems, bovine-specific concerns (e.g. mastitis), and concepts to capture novel threats. Reportable diseases were chosen from the list published by the Colorado Dept. of Agriculture [1]. Based on APHIS concerns and test order frequencies, 4 diseases were chosen for weekly monitoring: Bluetongue, Brucellosis, Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease, and Paratuberculosis. To monitor positives, we considered both the number and the ratio of herds with at least one positive result for each disease. For included tests (excluding results quantified with antibody levels), we counted an accession as “positive” if the result field contained strings “positive”, “suspect”, or “detect” without negation terms. For weekly counts, we added the number of herds with any positives after deduplication. Diseases adopted for monitoring of positive results were Bovine Viral Diarrhea, Trichomoniasis, and Paratuberculosis.From experience and literature, we compared variants of 4 algorithm types, including: the C2 method of the CDC Early Aberration Reporting System, a CuSUM control chart with a sliding baseline, the temporal scan statistic Gscan applied to hospital infection counts, and the CDC Historical Limits method.We adapted a semisynthetic simulation approach for algorithm comparison in which authentic disease count data are used as baseline, and simulated signals are added to the background as detection targets. In discussions about specific diseases and veterinary testing practice, CEAH required sensitivity to one-week data spikes as well as effects of health threats with multi-week incubation periods and more gradual test ordering. For such gradual signals, we chose the lognormal signal model of Sartwell applied to incidence data for many diseases. Incubation periods vary widely by disease, and for this project, we chose lognormal parameters such that 90% of reported cases would occur within 6 weeks. We conducted separate algorithm detection trials for spike and gradual signals.Calculations of sensitivity, alert rate, and timeliness were derived with sets of 1000 repeated trials for each combination of algorithm and syndrome or disease. We applied minimum performance requirements of 95% sensitivity, ≤1 alert per 8 weeks, and mean detection delays of <2 weeks. The rule adopted for recommending an alerting method was to seek the method with the lowest alert rate that satisfied the sensitivity, alert rate, and delay criteria.ResultsThe Table shows the syndromes with chosen algorithms and thresholds for detection of the gradual signals. The scan statistic Gscan and the historical limits method HistLim achieved consistently higher sensitivities with acceptable alert rates than the other methods applied . The presentation will extend the results to reportable disease and clinical positive indicators and to the spike signals for all indicators.ConclusionsAmong results for both signal types, the results yielded a few preferred methods covering all chosen indicator streams. Monitored indicators with median weekly counts = 0 remain a challenge requiring more background data and veterinarian judgment. From analysis of orders from the few available laboratories, manual review will be required to achieve accurate syndromic categorization for each lab. Monitoring of test positives will require combined analysis of positive herd counts and percentages (of all tested herds) due to routine variation in laboratory submissions.References[1] Colorado Department of Agriculture, Livestock Health: Reportable Diseases in Colorado, https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/aganimals/livestock-health, last accessed Aug. 23, 2017

Evaluation of Syndromic Surveillance Data Streams in Animal Health

ObjectiveTo implement a systematic and uniform approach to evaluatingdata sources for syndromic surveillance within the United StatesDepartment of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant HealthInspection Services (APHIS) Veterinary Services (VS) group.IntroductionUSDA-APHIS-VS utilizes several continuous data streams toincrease our knowledge of animal health and provide situationalawareness of emerging animal health issues. In addition, USDA-APHIS-VS often conducts pilot projects to see if regular data accessand analysis are feasible, and if so, if the information generated isuseful. Syndromic surveillance was developed for three goals: asyndromic monitoring system to identify new diseases, as an emergingdisease early warning system, and to provide situational awarenessof animal health status. Current efforts focus on monitoring diversedata, such as laboratory accessions or poison center calls, groupedinto syndromic or other health indicator categories, and are notintended to identify specific pre-determined diseases or pathogens.It is essential to regularly evaluate and re-evaluate the effectiveness ofour surveillance program. However, there are difficulties when usingtraditional surveillance evaluation methods, since the objectives andoutcomes of monitoring novel data streams from pilot projects arenot easily measurable. An additional challenge in the evaluation ofthese data streams is the identification of a method that can adapt tovarious context and inputs to make objective decisions. Until recently,assessment efforts have looked at the feasibility of regular analysisand reporting, but not at the utility of the information generated, northe plausibility and sustainability of longer term or expanded efforts.MethodsMethods for surveillance evaluation, syndromic surveillanceevaluation, and specifically for animal health syndromic surveillanceevaluation were researched via a literature review, exploration ofmethods used in-house on traditional surveillance systems, andthrough development over time of criteria that were seen as key tothe development of functioning, sustainable systems focusing onanimal health syndromic surveillance. Several methods were adaptedto create an approach that could organize information in a logicalmanner, clarify objectives, and make qualitative value assessmentsin situations where the quantitative aspects of costs and benefits werenot always straight forward. More than 25 articles were reviewed todetermine the best method of evaluation.ResultsThe RISKSUR Evaluation Support Tool (EVA) provided themajority of the methodology for the evaluations of our data sources.The EVA tool allows for an integrated approach for evaluation, andflexible methods to measure effectiveness and benefits of various datastreams. The most useful and common factors found to evaluate pilotdata sources of interest were how well the information generated bythe data streams could provide early detection of animal health events,and how well and how often situational awareness information onanimal health was generated. The EVA tool also helps identify andorganize criteria that are used to assess the objectives, and assignvalue.ConclusionsThe regular evaluation of syndromic surveillance data streamsin animal health is necessary to make best use of resources andmaximize benefits of data stream use. It is also useful to conductregular interim assessments on data streams in pilot phase to becertain key information for a final evaluation will be generated duringthe project. The RISKSUR EVA tool was found to be very flexibleand useful for allowing estimates of value to be made, even whenevaluating systems that do not have very specific, quantitativelymeasurable objectives. This tool provides flexibility in the selectionof attributes for evaluation, making it particularly useful whenexamining pilot project data streams. In combination with additionalreview methodologies from the literature review, a systematic anduniform approach to data stream evaluation was identified for futureuse