Tectonic influences on late Holocene relative sea levels from the central-eastern Adriatic coast of Croatia

Differential tectonic activity is a key factor responsible for variable relative sea-level (RSL) changes during the late Holocene in the Adriatic. Here, we compare reconstructions of RSL from the central-eastern Adriatic coast of Croatia with ICE-7G_NA (VM7) glacial-isostatic model RSL predictions to assess underlying driving mechanisms of RSL change during the past ∼ 2700 years. Local standardized published sea-level index points (n = 23) were combined with a new salt-marsh RSL reconstruction and tide-gauge measurements. We enumerated fossil foraminifera from a short salt-marsh sediment core constrained vertically by modern foraminiferal distributions, and temporally by radiometric analyses providing sub-century resolution within a Bayesian age-depth framework. We modelled changes in RSL using an Errors-In-Variables Integrated Gaussian Process (EIV-IGP) model with full consideration of the available uncertainty. Previously established index points show RSL rising from −1.48 m at 715 BCE to −1.05 m by 100 CE at 0.52 mm/yr (−0.82-1.87 mm/yr). Between 500 and 1000 CE RSL was −0.7 m below present rising to −0.25 m at 1700 CE. RSL rise decreased to a minimum rate of 0.13 mm/yr (−0.37-0.64 mm/yr) at ∼1450 CE. The salt-marsh reconstruction shows RSL rose ∼0.28 m since the early 18th century at an average rate of 0.95 mm/yr. Magnitudes and rates of RSL change during the twentieth century are concurrent with long-term tide-gauge measurements, with a rise of ∼1.1 mm/yr. Predictions of RSL from the ICE-7G_NA (VM7) glacial-isostatic model (−0.25 m at 715 BCE) are consistently higher than the reconstruction (−1.48 m at 715 BCE) during the Late Holocene suggesting a subsidence rate of 0.45 ± 0.6 mm/yr. The new salt-marsh reconstruction and regional index points coupled with glacial-isostatic and statistical models estimate the magnitude and rate of RSL change and subsidence caused by the Adriatic tectonic framework. © 2018 Elsevier Lt

Colonoscopy surveillance following adenoma removal to reduce the risk of colorectal cancer: a retrospective cohort study

Background Colonoscopy surveillance is recommended for some patients post polypectomy. The 2002 UK surveillance guidelines classify post-polypectomy patients into low, intermediate and high risk, and recommend different strategies for each classification. Limited evidence supports these guidelines. Objectives To examine, for each risk group, long-term colorectal cancer incidence by baseline characteristics and the number of surveillance visits; the effects of interval length on detection rates of advanced adenomas and colorectal cancer at first surveillance; and the cost-effectiveness of surveillance compared with no surveillance. Design A retrospective cohort study and economic evaluation. Setting Seventeen NHS hospitals. Participants Patients with a colonoscopy and at least one adenoma at baseline. Main outcome measures Long-term colorectal cancer incidence after baseline and detection rates of advanced adenomas and colorectal cancer at first surveillance. Data sources Hospital databases, NHS Digital, the Office for National Statistics, National Services Scotland and Public Health England. Methods Cox regression was used to compare colorectal cancer incidence in the presence and absence of surveillance and to identify colorectal cancer risk factors. Risk factors were used to stratify risk groups into higher- and lower-risk subgroups. We examined detection rates of advanced adenomas and colorectal cancer at first surveillance by interval length. Cost-effectiveness of surveillance compared with no surveillance was evaluated in terms of incremental costs per colorectal cancer prevented and per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Results Our study included 28,972 patients, of whom 14,401 (50%), 11,852 (41%) and 2719 (9%) were classed as low, intermediate and high risk, respectively. The median follow-up time was 9.3 years. Colorectal cancer incidence was 140, 221 and 366 per 100,000 person-years among low-, intermediate- and high-risk patients, respectively. Attendance at one surveillance visit was associated with reduced colorectal cancer incidence among low-, intermediate- and high-risk patients [hazard ratios were 0.56 (95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.80), 0.59 (95% confidence interval 0.43 to 0.81) and 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29 to 0.82), respectively]. Compared with the general population, colorectal cancer incidence without surveillance was similar among low-risk patients and higher among high-risk patients [standardised incidence ratios were 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.73 to 1.02) and 1.91 (95% confidence interval 1.39 to 2.56), respectively]. For intermediate-risk patients, standardised incidence ratios differed for the lower- (0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.48 to 0.99) and higher-risk (1.46, 95% confidence interval 1.19 to 1.78) subgroups. In each risk group, incremental costs per colorectal cancer prevented and per quality-adjusted life-year gained with surveillance were lower for the higher-risk subgroup than for the lower-risk subgroup. Incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained were lowest for the higher-risk subgroup of high-risk patients at £7821. Limitations The observational design means that we cannot assume that surveillance caused the reductions in cancer incidence. The fact that some cancer staging data were missing places uncertainty on our cost-effectiveness estimates. Conclusions Surveillance was associated with reduced colorectal cancer incidence in all risk groups. However, in low-risk patients and the lower-risk subgroup of intermediate-risk patients, colorectal cancer incidence was no higher than in the general population without surveillance, indicating that surveillance might not be necessary. Surveillance was most cost-effective for the higher-risk subgroup of high-risk patients

Consistent Pattern of Local Adaptation during an Experimental Heat Wave in a Pipefish-Trematode Host-Parasite System

Extreme climate events such as heat waves are expected to increase in frequency under global change. As one indirect effect, they can alter magnitude and direction of species interactions, for example those between hosts and parasites. We simulated a summer heat wave to investigate how a changing environment affects the interaction between the broad-nosed pipefish (Syngnathus typhle) as a host and its digenean trematode parasite (Cryptocotyle lingua). In a fully reciprocal laboratory infection experiment, pipefish from three different coastal locations were exposed to sympatric and allopatric trematode cercariae. In order to examine whether an extreme climatic event disrupts patterns of locally adapted host-parasite combinations we measured the parasite's transmission success as well as the host's adaptive and innate immune defence under control and heat wave conditions. Independent of temperature, sympatric cercariae were always more successful than allopatric ones, indicating that parasites are locally adapted to their hosts. Hosts suffered from heat stress as suggested by fewer cells of the adaptive immune system (lymphocytes) compared to the same groups that were kept at 18°C. However, the proportion of the innate immune cells (monocytes) was higher in the 18°C water. Contrary to our expectations, no interaction between host immune defence, parasite infectivity and temperature stress were found, nor did the pattern of local adaptation change due to increased water temperature. Thus, in this host-parasite interaction, the sympatric parasite keeps ahead of the coevolutionary dynamics across sites, even under increasing temperatures as expected under marine global warming

Malaria risk factors in north-east Tanzania

BACKGROUND: Understanding the factors which determine a household's or individual's risk of malaria infection is important for targeting control interventions at all intensities of transmission. Malaria ecology in Tanzania appears to have reduced over recent years. This study investigated potential risk factors and clustering in face of changing infection dynamics. METHODS: Household survey data were collected in villages of rural Muheza district. Children aged between six months and thirteen years were tested for presence of malaria parasites using microscopy. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed to identify significant risk factors for children. Geographical information systems combined with global positioning data and spatial scan statistic analysis were used to identify clusters of malaria. RESULTS: Using an insecticide-treated mosquito net of any type proved to be highly protective against malaria (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.59-0.96). Children aged five to thirteen years were at higher risk of having malaria than those aged under five years (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.01-2.91). The odds of malaria were less for females when compared to males (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.39-0.98). Two spatial clusters of significantly increased malaria risk were identified in two out of five villages. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that recent declines in malaria transmission and prevalence may shift the age groups at risk of malaria infection to older children. Risk factor analysis provides support for universal coverage and targeting of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) to all age groups. Clustering of cases indicates heterogeneity of risk. Improved targeting of LLINs or additional supplementary control interventions to high risk clusters may improve outcomes and efficiency as malaria transmission continues to fall under intensified control

Search for a New Heavy Gauge Boson Wprime with Electron + missing ET Event Signature in ppbar collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV

We present a search for a new heavy charged vector boson $W^\prime$ decaying to an electron-neutrino pair in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96\unit{TeV}. The data were collected with the CDF II detector and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 5.3\unit{fb}^{-1}. No significant excess above the standard model expectation is observed and we set upper limits on $\sigma\cdot{\cal B}(W^\prime\to e\nu)$. Assuming standard model couplings to fermions and the neutrino from the $W^\prime$ boson decay to be light, we exclude a $W^\prime$ boson with mass less than 1.12\unit{TeV/}c^2 at the 95\unit{%} confidence level.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures Submitted to PR

Measurement of the Bottom-Strange Meson Mixing Phase in the Full CDF Data Set

We report a measurement of the bottom-strange meson mixing phase \beta_s using the time evolution of B0_s -> J/\psi (->\mu+\mu-) \phi (-> K+ K-) decays in which the quark-flavor content of the bottom-strange meson is identified at production. This measurement uses the full data set of proton-antiproton collisions at sqrt(s)= 1.96 TeV collected by the Collider Detector experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron, corresponding to 9.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity. We report confidence regions in the two-dimensional space of \beta_s and the B0_s decay-width difference \Delta\Gamma_s, and measure \beta_s in [-\pi/2, -1.51] U [-0.06, 0.30] U [1.26, \pi/2] at the 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model expectation. Assuming the standard model value of \beta_s, we also determine \Delta\Gamma_s = 0.068 +- 0.026 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps-1 and the mean B0_s lifetime, \tau_s = 1.528 +- 0.019 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps, which are consistent and competitive with determinations by other experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, Phys. Rev. Lett 109, 171802 (2012

Measurements of the properties of Lambda_c(2595), Lambda_c(2625), Sigma_c(2455), and Sigma_c(2520) baryons

We report measurements of the resonance properties of Lambda_c(2595)+ and Lambda_c(2625)+ baryons in their decays to Lambda_c+ pi+ pi- as well as Sigma_c(2455)++,0 and Sigma_c(2520)++,0 baryons in their decays to Lambda_c+ pi+/- final states. These measurements are performed using data corresponding to 5.2/fb of integrated luminosity from ppbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV, collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. Exploiting the largest available charmed baryon sample, we measure masses and decay widths with uncertainties comparable to the world averages for Sigma_c states, and significantly smaller uncertainties than the world averages for excited Lambda_c+ states.Comment: added one reference and one table, changed order of figures, 17 pages, 15 figure

Continued Decline of Malaria in The Gambia with Implications for Elimination

BACKGROUND: A substantial decline in malaria was reported to have occurred over several years until 2007 in the western part of The Gambia, encouraging consideration of future elimination in this previously highly endemic region. Scale up of interventions has since increased with support from the Global Fund and other donors. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We continued to examine laboratory records at four health facilities previously studied and investigated six additional facilities for a 7 year period, adding data from 243,707 slide examinations, to determine trends throughout the country until the end of 2009. We actively detected infections in a community cohort of 800 children living in rural villages throughout the 2008 malaria season, and assayed serological changes in another rural population between 2006 and 2009. Proportions of malaria positive slides declined significantly at all of the 10 health facilities between 2003 (annual mean across all sites, 38.7%) and 2009 (annual mean, 7.9%). Statistical modelling of trends confirmed significant seasonality and decline over time at each facility. Slide positivity was lowest in 2009 at all sites, except two where lowest levels were observed in 2006. Mapping households of cases presenting at the latter sites in 2007-2009 indicated that these were not restricted to a few residual foci. Only 2.8% (22/800) of a rural cohort of children had a malaria episode in the 2008 season, and there was substantial serological decline between 2006 and 2009 in a separate rural area. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria has continued to decline in The Gambia, as indicated by a downward trend in slide positivity at health facilities, and unprecedented low incidence and seroprevalence in community surveys. We recommend intensification of control interventions for several years to further reduce incidence, prior to considering an elimination programme

Towards a System Level Understanding of Non-Model Organisms Sampled from the Environment: A Network Biology Approach

The acquisition and analysis of datasets including multi-level omics and physiology from non-model species, sampled from field populations, is a formidable challenge, which so far has prevented the application of systems biology approaches. If successful, these could contribute enormously to improving our understanding of how populations of living organisms adapt to environmental stressors relating to, for example, pollution and climate. Here we describe the first application of a network inference approach integrating transcriptional, metabolic and phenotypic information representative of wild populations of the European flounder fish, sampled at seven estuarine locations in northern Europe with different degrees and profiles of chemical contaminants. We identified network modules, whose activity was predictive of environmental exposure and represented a link between molecular and morphometric indices. These sub-networks represented both known and candidate novel adverse outcome pathways representative of several aspects of human liver pathophysiology such as liver hyperplasia, fibrosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. At the molecular level these pathways were linked to TNF alpha, TGF beta, PDGF, AGT and VEGF signalling. More generally, this pioneering study has important implications as it can be applied to model molecular mechanisms of compensatory adaptation to a wide range of scenarios in wild populations