Cattle management in an Iron Age/Roman settlement in the Netherlands : archaeozoological and stable isotope analysis

Cattle were the predominant domestic animal in the Iron Age and Roman Netherlands, yet their management is still incompletely understood. Some aspects of cattle management, such as birth season and the provision of fodder, have received little or no attention so far. This paper is the first to investigate these aspects for the Iron Age and Roman Netherlands, through a case study of the site of Houten-Castellum. The rural settlement of Houten-Castellum was inhabited from the Middle Iron Age to the Middle Roman period, allowing a comparison between the Iron Age and Roman period. Excavations at this site have yielded a large, well-preserved animal bone assemblage. This paper investigates cattle husbandry by using an integrated approach, combining a multi-isotope analysis (oxygen, carbon and strontium) with archaeozoological and archaeobotanical results from Houten-Castellum and comparing the results with archaeobotanical evidence for fodder and evidence for dairy use for the Iron Age and Roman Netherlands in general. While our data set is small and results must therefore be interpreted cautiously, there is convincing evidence for an extended birth season in the Middle Iron Age, as well as the use of fodder

Radiocarbon dating and cultural dynamics across Mongolia’s early pastoral transition

All necessary permits were obtained for the described study, which complied with all relevant regulations. Collaboration contract between the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human HIstory and the National University of Mongolia began on the 10th November, 2016. Export number 10/413 (7b/52) was received on the 2nd Feb, 2017 (#A0109258, MN DE 7 643). This research was supported by the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History. Special thanks to Dr. Katerina Douka and the Oxford Radiocarbon Accelerator Laboratory for conducting 14C analysis, and to all of the original excavators and authors who published the radiocarbon dates cited in this study.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Déclaration sur l’approche par l’archéologie sociale du changement climatique

Manifiesto sobre Arqueología Social del Cambio Climático aprobado en la Cumbre SACC celebrada en Kiel. Aprobado y firmado el 6 de septiembre de 2021.[ES] El SACC es un grupo independiente, constituido en Kiel, de investigadores e investigadoras que trabajan sobre cambio climático. El objetivo de SACC es reunir científicos y científicas internacionales y representantes de importantes organizaciones internacionales de las áreas de arqueología, paleoecología y gestión del patrimonio para con el fin de discutir y evaluar la contribución de la investigación arqueológica y paleo-ecológica para comprender la interrelación entre el cambio social, el cultural, el ecológico y el climático. Pretendemos resaltar cómo la arqueología, a través del estudio de la conducta adaptativa en el pasado, es capaz de reforzar tanto la resiliencia socio-ecológica de nuestras sociedades, como su capacidad adaptativa ante el actual cambio climático. Además, pretendemos contribuir a la comprensión del impacto del cambio climático en los yacimientos y sitios arqueológicos y patrimoniales, así como en los paisajes culturales, los museos, las colecciones y archivos patrimoniales. SACC celebrará cumbres cada dos años y emitirá una declaración o manifiesto al término de cada una de ellas. S ACC está organizada por un comité interino presidido por las personas convocantes del SACC 1.[EN] SACC is an independent group of researchers working on climate change in the past constituted in Kiel. The aim of SACC is to bring together international scientists and representatives of important international organisations in the fields of archaeology, paleoecology and heritage management to discuss and evaluate the contribution of archaeological and paleo-ecological research to understand the link between social, cultural, ecological and climatic change; and to highlight how archaeology, through the study of past adaptive behaviour, is able to enhance socio-ecological resilience of societies as well as their adaptive capacity to current climate change; furthermore, to contribute to the understanding of the impact of climate change on archaeological and heritage sites as well as on cultural landscapes, museums, collections, and archives. SACC will hold its summit every second year with a declaration at the end of each summit. SACC is organized by a steering committee chaired by the SACC 1 organisers.[FR] Le SACC est un groupe indépendant de chercheurs travaillant sur le changement climatique dans le passé, qui s’est formé à Kiel. L’objectif du S ACC est de réunir des scientifiques internationaux et des représentants d’organisations internationales importantes dans les domaines de l’archéologie, de la paléoécologie et de la gestion du patrimoine. Il a pour objectif de discuter et d’évaluer la contribution de la recherche archéologique et paléo-écologique à la compréhension du lien entre les changements sociaux, culturels, écologiques et climatiques et de souligner comment l’archéologie, par l’étude du comportement adaptatif du passé, est capable d’améliorer la résilience socioécologique des sociétés ainsi que leur capacité d’adaptation au changement climatique actuel. En outre, il contribue à la compréhension de l’impact du changement climatique sur les sites archéologiques et patrimoniaux ainsi que sur les paysages culturels, les musées, les collections et les archives. Le SACC tiendra son conseil tous les deux ans avec une déclaration à la fin de chaque conseil. Il est organisé par un comité de pilotage présidé par les organisateurs de SACC 1.Peer reviewe

New light on plant ash glass found in Africa: evidence for Indian Ocean Silk Road trade using major, minor, trace element and lead isotope analysis of glass from the 15th—16th century AD from Malindi and Mambrui, Kenya

Seventeen glass vessels and twenty glass beads recovered from the excavations at the ancient city of Malindi and the archaeological site of Mambrui in Kenya, east Africa were analysed using electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) and laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). The results show that all of the glass samples are soda-lime-silica glass. They belong to the high alumina -plant ash glass type, characterised by high alumina and relatively low calcium contents, widely distributed in eastern (10th- 16th centuries AD) and southern Africa (13th - 15th centuries AD), Central Asia (9th- 14th centuries AD) and southeast Asia (12th- 13th centuries AD), made with plant ashes and sands. This is an understudied glass type for which previous research has indicated there were three types. When compared with published research on such glasses using Zr, Ti, Ba, Cr, La, Li, Cs, Na2O, MgO and CaO we have identified at least four different compositional groups of v-Na-Al glass: Types A, B, C and D. By comparing the results with contemporary v-Na-Al glass vessels and beads from Central Asia, Africa, and southeast Asia we show that most of the Malindi and Mambrui glass share similar characteristics to the compositions of Mapungubwe Oblate and some of the Madagascar glass beads from southern Africa. They belong to Type A v-Na-Al glass which is characterised by an elevated level of Ti and Ba and a relatively high ratios of Cr/La, relatively low Zr concentrations and low ratios of Zr/ Ti. Differences in Zr, Li, MgO and Na2O concentrations in Type A glass indicates that there are subgroups which might derive from different glass workshop(s) specialising in Type A v- Na-Al glass production. Comparison with the chemical compositions of glass from Ghazni, Afghanistan and Termez, Uzbekistan, and by using lead isotope analysis, we suggest v-Na- Al glass was manufactured in Central Asia and possibly worked into vessels and beads there. Copyright: © 2020 Siu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Demographics of extra-articular calcaneal fractures: Including a review of the literature on treatment and outcome

Introduction: Extra-articular calcaneal fractures represent 25-40% of all calcaneal fractures and an even higher percentage of up to 60% is seen in children. A disproportionately small part of the literature on calcaneal fractures involves the extra-articular type. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence of extra-articular calcaneal fractures in a Level 1 trauma centre, define the distribution of the various types of fractures and compare patient demographics between extra- and intra-articular calcaneal fractures. In addition the literature was reviewed for the most common types of extra-articular calcaneal fractures with regard to incidence, treatment and clinical outcome. Methods: The radiological records between 2003 and 2005 were reviewed for intra- and extra-articular calcaneal fractures. Patient gender-distribution and age were compared. A literature search was conducted for the treatment of extra-articular calcaneal fractures. Results: In this 3-year study period a total of 49 patients with 50 extra-articular calcaneal fractures and 91 patients with 101 intra-articular fractures were identified. The median age for the first group was 32.7 years, and for the second group 40.3 years; P = 0.04. Male predominance was significantly less pronounced for extra-articular (63%) compared with intra-articular fractures (79%; P = 0.04). Conclusion: One-third of all calcaneal fractures are extra-articular. Significant differences exist between the intra- and extra-articular groups, in terms of lower age and male-female ratio. The literature study shows inconsistencies in treatment options, but most extra-articular fractures are well manageable conservatively

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2)

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of 'leaving no one behind', it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019