Subseasonal Forecasting with an Icosahedral, Vertically Quasi-Lagrangian Coupled Model. Part I: Model Overview and Evaluation of Systematic Errors

The atmospheric hydrostatic Flow-Following Icosahedral Model (FIM), developed for medium-range weather prediction, provides a unique three-dimensional grid structurea quasi-uniform icosahedral horizontal grid and an adaptive quasi-Lagrangian vertical coordinate. To extend the FIM framework to subseasonal time scales, an icosahedral-grid rendition of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (iHYCOM) was developed and coupled to FIM. By sharing a common horizontal mesh, airsea fluxes between the two models are conserved locally and globally. Both models use similar adaptive hybrid vertical coordinates. Another unique aspect of the coupled model (referred to as FIMiHYCOM) is the use of the GrellFreitas scale-aware convective scheme in the atmosphere. A multiyear retrospective study is necessary to demonstrate the potential usefulness and allow for immediate bias correction of a subseasonal prediction model. In these two articles, results are shown based on a 16-yr period of hindcasts from FIMiHYCOM, which has been providing real-time forecasts out to a lead time of 4 weeks for NOAAs Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) starting July 2017. Part I provides an overview of FIMiHYCOM and compares its systematic errors at subseasonal time scales to those of NOAAs operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Part II uses bias-corrected hindcasts to assess both deterministic and probabilistic subseasonal skill of FIMiHYCOM. FIMiHYCOM has smaller biases than CFSv2 for some fields (including precipitation) and comparable biases for other fields (including sea surface temperature). FIMiHYCOM also has less drift in bias between weeks 1 and 4 than CFSv2. The unique grid structure and physics suite of FIMiHYCOM is expected to add diversity to multimodel ensemble forecasts at subseasonal time scales in SubX

Prediction of visibility and aerosol within the operational Met Office unified model. I: Model formulation and variational assimilation

The formulation and performance of the Met Office visibility analysis and prediction system are described. The visibility diagnostic within the limited-area Unified Model is a function of humidity and a prognostic aerosol content. The aerosol model includes advection, industrial and general urban sources, plus boundary-layer mixing and removal by rain. The assimilation is a 3-dimensional variational scheme in which the visibility observation operator is a very nonlinear function of humidity, aerosol and temperature. A quality control scheme for visibility data is included. Visibility observations can give rise to humidity increments of significant magnitude compared with the direct impact of humidity observations. We present the results of sensitivity studies which show the contribution of different components of the system to improved skill in visibility forecasts. Visibility assimilation is most important within the first 6-12 hours of the forecast and for visibilities below 1 km, while modelling of aerosol sources and advection is important for slightly higher visibilities (1-5 km) and is still significant at longer forecast time

Simulation of potential impacts of man-made land use changes on U.S. summer climate under various synoptic regimes

This study evaluates impacts of land use changes due to human settlement on regional summer climate over the central and western United States by performing 30-day simulations during normal, drought, and flood years. Under current land use the simulated evapotranspiration increased noticeably over the central United States where grassland has been replaced by crops. Simulated evapotranspiration decreased slightly in the western United States. These changes produced wetter and cooler surface air over the central United States and slightly drier and warmer air over the western United States. Responses of surface fluxes and thus screen height variables to land use changes were consistent from year to year, whereas rainfall showed strong interannual variations because of the combination of various dynamic processes involved in precipitation. For normal year conditions, average evapotranspiration and rainfall under current land use increased by 18% and 8%, respectively, over the central United States, whereas they slightly decreased in the western United States. In both flood and drought years, current land use exhibited a rainfall increase in the western United States and a decrease over the central United States. The decrease of rainfall with increased evapotranspiration in the central United States was likely associated with weakening of the dynamic forcing needed to produce precipitation

Psychographische Verortung von Menschen mit Diabetes: Auswirkungen auf die Produktgestaltung und Kommunikation

Für den Erfolg eines Produktes oder einer Dienstleistung ist die umfassende Kenntnis der Bedürfnisse, Wahrnehmungs- und Entscheidungsfilter von Zielgruppen entscheidend. Nur eine zielgerichtete, zur Zielgruppe passende Produktentwicklung und -vermarktung kann Auf Dauer erfolgreich sein. Da soziodemographische Zielgruppendefinitionen heute alleine nicht valide genug sind, um Zielgruppen umfassend zu verstehen, werden im Marketing zu-nehmend psychographische Verortungen von Zielgruppen verwendet. Auch bei chronisch Kranken reichen rein soziodemographische und medizinische Kriterien nicht aus, um Produkte und Dienstleistungen passend zu gestalten. Psychographische Erkenntnisse können die klassischen Kriterien sinnvoll ergänzen. Am Beispiel von Menschen mit Diabetes wird in einer internationalen empirischen Studie gezeigt, dass sich Menschen mit Diabetes mit Hilfe eines neuropsychologisch fundierten, visuellen Testverfahrens (dem u.a. an der NORD-AKADEMIE entwickelten Visual Questionnaire, ViQ) eindeutig psychographisch verorten lassen. Die Implikationen und Anwendungsmöglichkeiten dieser psychographischen Erkenntnisse für die Produktentwicklung, Kommunikation, Vertrieb und Marketing bei Krankenkassen, medizinischem Personal und der Pharmabranche werden aufgezeigt und kritisch diskutiert. --

Asparaginase-Associated Pancreatitis in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia : Results From the NOPHO ALL2008 Treatment of Patients 1-45 Years of Age

PURPOSE Asparaginase-associated pancreatitis (AAP) is common in patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), but risk differences across age groups both in relation to first-time AAP and after asparaginase re-exposure have not been explored. PATIENTS AND METHODS We prospectively registered AAP (n = 168) during treatment of 2,448 consecutive ALL patients aged 1.0-45.9 years diagnosed from July 2008 to October 2018 and treated according to the Nordic Society of Pediatric Hematology and Oncology (NOPHO) ALL2008 protocol. RESULTS Compared with patients aged 1.0-9.9 years, adjusted AAP hazard ratios (HRa) were associated with higher age with almost identical HRa (1.6; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.3; P = .02) for adolescents (10.0-17.9 years) and adults (18.0-45.9 years). The day 280 cumulative incidences of AAP were 7.0% for children (1.0-9.9 years: 95% CI, 5.4 to 8.6), 10.1% for adolescents (10.0 to 17.9 years: 95% CI, 7.0 to 13.3), and 11.0% for adults (18.0-45.9 years: 95% CI, 7.1 to 14.9; P = .03). Adolescents had increased odds of both acute (odds ratio [OR], 5.2; 95% CI, 2.1 to 13.2; P = .0005) and persisting complications (OR, 6.7; 95% CI, 2.4 to 18.4; P = .0002) compared with children (1.0-9.9 years), whereas adults had increased odds of only persisting complications (OR, 4.1; 95% CI, 1.4 to 11.8; P = .01). Fifteen of 34 asparaginase-rechallenged patients developed a second AAP. Asparaginase was truncated in 17/21 patients with AAP who subsequently developed leukemic relapse, but neither AAP nor the asparaginase truncation was associated with increased risk of relapse. CONCLUSION Older children and adults had similar AAP risk, whereas morbidity was most pronounced among adolescents. Asparaginase re-exposure should be considered only for patients with an anticipated high risk of leukemic relapse, because multiple studies strongly indicate that reduction of asparaginase treatment intensity increases the risk of relapse. (C) 2019 by American Society of Clinical OncologyPeer reviewe

The Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICA)

To explore the various couplings across space and time and between ecosystems in a consistent manner, atmospheric modeling is moving away from the fractured limited-scale modeling strategy of the past toward a unification of the range of scales inherent in the Earth system. This paper describes the forward-looking Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICA), which is intended to become the next-generation community infrastructure for research involving atmospheric chemistry and aerosols. MUSICA will be developed collaboratively by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and university and government researchers, with the goal of serving the international research and applications communities. The capability of unifying various spatiotemporal scales, coupling to other Earth system components, and process-level modularization will allow advances in both fundamental and applied research in atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate and is also envisioned to become a platform that addresses the needs of policy makers and stakeholders

The Influence of Manga on the Graphic Novel

This material has been published in The Cambridge History of the Graphic Novel edited by Jan Baetens, Hugo Frey, Stephen E. Tabachnick. This version is free to view and download for personal use only. Not for re-distribution, re-sale or use in derivative works. © Cambridge University PressProviding a range of cogent examples, this chapter describes the influences of the Manga genre of comics strip on the Graphic Novel genre, over the last 35 years, considering the functions of domestication, foreignisation and transmedia on readers, markets and forms

Virtual Reality in der betrieblichen Bildung

Lernfabriken ermöglichen praxisnahes Lernen in realistischen Produktionsumgebungen. Jedoch stellen der hohe Ressourcenbedarf und der Bedarf an personalisierten Lernszenarien Herausforderungen an das bestehende Konzept. Der Einsatz von VR erweitert die Möglichkeiten in Lernfabriken und begegnet diesen Herausforderungen. Dieser Beitrag stellt Chancen und Risiken beim Einsatz von VR in der Weiterbildung aus Sicht von Lernfabriken dar

Virtual Reality in der betrieblichen Bildung: Chancen und Herausforderungen

Lernfabriken ermöglichen praxisnahes Lernen in realistischen Produktionsumgebungen. Jedoch stellen der hohe Ressourcenbedarf und der Bedarf an personalisierten Lernszenarien Herausforderungen an das bestehende Konzept. Der Einsatz von VR erweitert die Möglichkeiten in Lernfabriken und begegnet diesen Herausforderungen. Dieser Beitrag stellt Chancen und Risiken beim Einsatz von VR in der Weiterbildung aus Sicht von Lernfabriken dar