Wildlife management on communal land in Namibia

In this paper the anti-poaching effects achieved under the actual implementation of the economically-based system for management and utilization of wildlife (Community Based Natural Resource Management, CBNRM) initiated in Namibia in 1995, is theoretically contrasted to the intended policy design. By contrasting a Nash equilibrium, where the park agency and the local community act like competitors rather than companions, to a collusive equilibrium, where the two actors work together as a united entity, more local anti-poaching activities is found in the latter case. Negative externalities, such as illegal hunting, could be understood as better internalized and, thus, a more preferable economically-based system for the management and utilization of wildlife appears. Despite great success in terms of increased wildlife number following the economic incentive approach, the model implications suggest conservation incentives to be even better realized if the implemented CBNRM policy in Namibia could re-establish the intended policy design. That is not to be understood as criticim of the approach as such. Rather it should be viewd as a contribution for further development and success.År 1995 implementerades ett nytt program i Namibia med det överordnade syftet att på lokal nivå skapa förutsättningar för bevarande och förvaltning av vilda djur på statligt ägd mark (communal land). Systemet kallas för CBNRM och är förkortning av engelskans Community Based Natural Resource Management. Programidén vilar i hög utsträckning på teorin om att kollektiva äganderätter och ekonomiska incitament kan användas för att uppmuntra människor att bevara vilda djur. Med andra ord, ett system som direkt eller indirekt genererar ekonomisk kompensation till de människor som bär kostnaderna för att leva i djurrika områden (exempelvis i form skadegörelse), kan verka mildrande på så kallade människa-djur konflikter. I den här studien görs en teoretisk jämförelse avseende effekterna av jaktbrottsmotverkande åtgärder mellan, å ena sidan, den faktiska utformningen av CBNRM-programmet och, å andra sidan, det ursprungliga CBNRM-förslaget. Genom att använda en modell bestående av två aktörer: (i) en stalig och (ii) en lokal, där den förra styr över jaktkvoter och jakttillstånd, och den senare ansvarar för jaktbrottsmotverkande åtgärder, kan en jämförelse avseende effekterna av jaktmotverkande åtgärder under två olika jämvikter göras. I studien jämförs en Nash-jämvikt, där den statliga aktören och den lokala aktören agerar som konkurrenter istället för kompanjoner (programmets faktiska utformning), med en avtalad jämvikt (Collusive Equlibrium) där de två aktörerna samarbetar (programförslaget). Teoretiskt visar studien att mer jaktbrottsmotverkande åtgärder genereras i det alternativ där samarbete äger rum. Negativa externa effekter, så som illgal jakt, kan alltså förstås som mer internaliserade i det senare fallet. Trots att CBNRM-programmets faktiska utformning är att förstå som en stor succé i termer av jaktbrottsmotverkande åtgärder och ökat antal vilda djur, visar studien att en utformning mer i linje med det bakomliggande förslaget skulle kunna generera än bättre resultat. Det är emellertid viktigt att påminna sig om att CBNRM-programmet är under ständig utveckling. Därför skall studiens resultat inte förstås som kritik mot system som sådant, utan istället som ett underlag för fortsatt framgång

Illegal predator hunting : a law and economics analysis of the Swedish predator issue

In this essay a model of a potential illegal hunter's decision-making is created and presented in order to provide an overview of important parts of the complexities associated with the current Swedish predator policy. A comparison is made between a livestock owner's economic incentives, and the expected costs faced by the potentially caught lawbreaker. In accordance with economic theory the benefits and costs of illegal hunting are compared and thus the optimal choice is determined where marginal costs and benefits are equal. The model has been tied to reality through identification and discussion of the estimates the parameters of the model are likely to adopt. In cases where the estimates have shown to be too complicated to approximate, the discussion has been limited to cover what information should be needed to connect theory with reality. The effects of different policy instruments of the illegal hunting of predators are analyzed using the model. Current policy instruments such as, compensation and prevention of damages caused by predators are presented and discussed. Additionally, outcomes of an alternative property rights system are considered. The starting point for an alternative property rights system has in accordance with an idea proposed by Sellenthin & Skogh (2001) been that current predator policy could be replaced by a property rights regime. The replacement would imply that current compensation for damages caused by predators would be replaced by a compensation for conservation of endangered predators. A theoretical interpretation of the proposed idea is presented by the hypothetical construction of a livestock owner's utility function. The utility function includes an expression that enables the livestock owner to increase his/her own utility through conservation of predators. Given that conservation together with livestock farming generates economic benefits it is believed that the positive attitude towards predators would increase. That in turn could decrease illegal hunting. Finally a principle is presented, explaining how authorities should allocate their scarce resources to create incentives in order to discourage illegal hunting of predators. The interpretation of the principle is that each increase in the number of units conserved predators should be equal to each spent dollar, for each and every one of the policy parameters.I den här uppsatsen har en mikroekonomisk modell över en potentiell jaktbrottslings beslutsfattande konstruerats och presenterats för att på ett överskådligt sätt beskriva viktiga delar av den rådande svenska rovdjursproblematiken. En tamboskapsägares ekonomiska incitament att illegalt skjuta rovdjur har vägts mot den förväntade kostnaden, framför allt det förväntade straffet vid upptäckt. I enlighet med nationalekonomisk teori har de positiva och negativa effekterna av att illegalt skjuta rovdjur jämförts, för att vid det optimala valet ta ut varandra på marginalen. Modellen har sedan knutits till verkligheten genom identifiering och diskussion av de värden modellens parametrar kan tänkas anta. I de fall då detta visat sig alldeles för komplicerat har diskussionen begränsats till att behandla vilken information som skulle behövas för att bättre kunna binda samman teori och verklighet. Utifrån den skapade modellen analyseras sedan hur olika politiska styrmedel påverkar omfattningen på den illegala jakten på rovdjur. Dels redovisas och diskuteras de policyinstrument som redan finns, exempelvis bidrag till förebyggande åtgärder för rovdjursangrepp, samt ersättning för sådana skador. Dels diskuteras de förväntade effekterna av ett alternativt äganderättsystem. Utgångspunkten för ett alternativt äganderättssystem har i enlighet med ett tidigare förslag, presenterat av Sellenthin & Skogh (2001) varit att dagens statliga kompensation för rovdjursskador på tamboskap ersätts eller kombineras med statlig kompensation för varje bevarad rovdjursindivid inom ett specifikt ägandeområde. En teoretisk tolkning av förslaget presenteras genom en konstruerad nyttofunktion över en potentiell tamboskapsägare. I funktionen ingår en term som möjliggör för tamboskapsägaren att höja sin nytta genom att bevara rovdjur. Givet att bevarande av rovdjursstammar tillsammans med tamboskapsskötsel genererar mer ekonomiska fördelar än endast näringsverksamhet med tamboskap, skulle eventuellt acceptansen för rovdjur öka, vilket i sin tur kan leda till minskad illegal jakt. Avslutningsvis härleds en princip för hur myndigheterna på ett optimalt sätt bör allokera sina begränsade medel för att minska den illegala jakten på rovdjur. I ord kan den tolkas som att varje ökning i antalet enheter bevarade rovdjursindivider ska vara lika per förbrukad krona, för alla policyparametrar

Matters Risk? The Allocation of Government Subsidies for Remediation of Contaminated Sites under the Local Investment Programme

In this paper we evaluate how the environmental and health risks posed by a contaminated site affected the probability that it would receive funding for remedial action under a Swedish subsidization scheme, the Local Investment Programme (LIP). The LIP, effective between 1998 and 2002, had a twofold purpose: to step up the pace at which Sweden becomes an ecologically sustainable society and to reduce unemployment. Under the LIP, almost € 43 million (SEK 400 million) were granted to various municipal projects aimed at remediation of contaminated sites. In analyzing data on both subsidized and non-subsidized remediation projects, we unexpectedly find that the more hazardous a site, the less the probability of its receiving funding. Thus, contrary to the “worst things first” strategy officially adopted by the Swedish Parliament for remediation of contaminated sites, our results reveal a risk-avoiding allocation of government subsidies. Furthermore, the number of employment opportunities generated by remediation projects positively affects the probability of receiving a LIP subsidy. Although more faithful observance of the official strategy would have been desirable, the most highly contaminated sites at least received the most money. Based on our findings, we believe that extensive information about the hazards posed by contaminated sites is necessary to ensure better decisions on remediation funding and more efficient use of public resources in the future.

Can We Buy Time? Evaluation of the Government’s Directed Grant to Remediation in Sweden

The interim targets of the Swedish environmental quality objective “A non-toxic environment” emphasize that remediation of contaminated sites should progress at a high speed. Since remediation is an expensive venture, it is valuable to gain knowledge about where in the remediation process government funding affects the pace of progress the most. In this paper we analyze how government funding, in the form of a directed grant, affects the pace of progress in four different states of the remediation process. The estimation is performed in a simultaneous sequential duration model in which a site has to exit a state to be eligible for inclusion in the following state. We control for a number of variables that may also affect the pace of the remediation process, such as the municipal tax base and the site’s level of contaminants. Although there is heterogeneity between the sites that contribute to making remediation a slow process, our analyses show that the directed grant positively affects the probability of leaving the first and third states. We identify the third state (i.e., the time between the end of a thorough risk classification and the inception of on-site remediation)as the remediation process’ bottleneck. Even if the directed grant can speed up the process in this state, the effect is minuscule compared to the amount of directed grants needed to do so.

Does remediation save lives? On the cost of cleaning up arsenic-contaminated sites in Sweden

Swedish environmental policy is based on 16 environmental quality objectives (Gov. Bill 2000/01:130 and Gov.Bill 2004/05:150).1 One of the most challenging objectives,‘A non toxic environment’, has two interim targets that concern remediation of contaminated sites. In sum, they state that the highest priority should be given to sites posing the highest risks to human health and the environment.2 By eliminating pollutants in soil, groundwater and sediment, the interim targets aim to reduce risks to human health and the environment. In Sweden, 83,000 sites are potentially contaminated due to previous industrial activities. According to the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the administrator of the governmental funds for remediation, approximately 1500 of these sites contain contaminant concentrations that could seriously harm human health and the environment (Swedish EPA, 2008a). To reach the interim targets, all these sites need to be remediated by 2050. Remediation of contaminated sites has so far cost more than SEK 3,000 million.3 The approximated cost to mitigate the potential risks at the most harmful sites is estimated at SEK 60,000 million.4 The Swedish government’s funding for remediation presently comes in the form of a directed grant (sakanslag). The directed grant, administrated by the Swedish EPA, subsidises remediation of contaminated sites that were contaminated prior to modern environmental legislation (in 1969) or for which no liable party can be found. The directed grant amounts to approximately 455 millions annually, which corresponds to about 10 percent of the annual national funds for environmental protection (Gov. Bill 2007/08:1). To make it possible to prioritise among contaminated sites, the Swedish EPA has developed a method for risk assessment called the ‘MIFO’ (i.e. the Method for Inventory of Contaminated Sites). The risk assessment does not take into account the actual exposure at a contaminated site. Risk is instead assessed based on divergence from guideline values for acceptable concentrations given a standardised (i.e. worst case) exposure situation on an individual level. This means that a site can be remediated without any individuals actually being exposed. The expected risk reduction is consequently not quantified. This eliminates the possibility of valuing the risk reduction, which should be weighed against the remediation cost. The purpose of this paper is to analyse how health effects, in the form of cancer risks, from sites contaminated by arsenic are valued implicitly in remediation. By using an environmental medicine approach that takes exposure into account, and without underestimating the potential health consequences of arsenic exposure, our purpose is to place arsenic risk management in the overall picture of live-saving interventions. In the case of cancer prevention, it is necessary to recognise that focus on an environmental carcinogen like arsenic may draw public attention – and funding – away from mental health risks like ambient air pollution and indoor radon. Although environmental pollution accounts for less than ten percent of all cancer cases (Harvard Centre for Cancer Prevention, 1996; Saracci and Vineis, 2007), environmental factors are important to recognize since they may be preventable. We emphasise, however, the inefficiency in becoming overly concerned about small risks while, at the same time, losing sight of the large risks. If society’s spending on lifesaving measures with small effects (i.e. a small number of lives saved) crowds out spending on lifesaving measures with large effects, then remediation can, in fact, even be said to waste lives. By using data on 23 arsenic-contaminated sites in Sweden, we estimate the sitespecific cancer risks and calculate the cost per life saved by using the sites’ remediation costs. Our results show that the cost per life saved through remediation is much higher than that associated with other primary prevention measures, indicating that the ambition level of Swedish remediation may be too high.

The impact of metformin with or without lifestyle modification versus placebo on polycystic ovary syndrome : a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Objective: Available evidence has shown that metformin improves insulin sensitivity and weight management in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). Nevertheless, key knowledge gaps remain regarding its efficacy and the specific outcomes in this population. This review evaluates the effectiveness of metformin and lifestyle modification compared with placebo in the management of PCOS and will inform the forthcoming, 2023 evidence-based PCOS guidelines. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature. Methods: A search was performed in MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, All EBM, and CINAHL. The review was conducted according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines and included randomized controlled trials published in English through July 2022. Results: Moderate certainty of evidence showed a larger reduction of body mass index (BMI) (mean difference [MD] −0.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] −0.95 to −0.12 kg/m2 ), homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (MD −0.50, 95% CI −0.91 to −0.09) (critical outcomes), and fasting glucose (MD −0.13, 95% CI −0.19 to −0.07 mmol/L) with metformin compared to placebo with increased mild gastrointestinal adverse effects (odds ratio [OR] 7.67, 95% CI 2.74–21.46). Low certainty of evidence showed a larger reduction of waist–hip ratio (MD −0.02, 95% CI −0.03 to −0.00), total cholesterol (MD −0.24, 95% CI −0.43 to −0.05 mmol/L), low density lipoprotein (MD −0.16, 95% CI −0.30 to −0.01 mmol/L), and triglycerides (MD −0.11, 95% CI −0.20 to −0.02 mmol/L) with metformin than placebo. Conclusions: Metformin should be considered an efficacious adjunct to lifestyle interventions in adults with PCOS, especially for those with a higher BMI, to improve weight loss, insulin resistance, and lipids

National trends in total cholesterol obscure heterogeneous changes in HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio : a pooled analysis of 458 population-based studies in Asian and Western countries

Background: Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol have opposite associations with coronary heart disease, multi-country reports of lipid trends only use total cholesterol (TC). Our aim was to compare trends in total, HDL and nonHDL cholesterol and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio in Asian and Western countries. Methods: We pooled 458 population-based studies with 82.1 million participants in 23 Asian and Western countries. We estimated changes in mean total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio by country, sex and age group. Results: Since similar to 1980, mean TC increased in Asian countries. In Japan and South Korea, the TC rise was due to rising HDL cholesterol, which increased by up to 0.17 mmol/L per decade in Japanese women; in China, it was due to rising non-HDL cholesterol. TC declined in Western countries, except in Polish men. The decline was largest in Finland and Norway, at similar to 0.4 mmol/L per decade. The decline in TC in most Western countries was the net effect of an increase in HDL cholesterol and a decline in non-HDL cholesterol, with the HDL cholesterol increase largest in New Zealand and Switzerland. Mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio declined in Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, by as much as similar to 0.7 per decade in Swiss men (equivalent to similar to 26% decline in coronary heart disease risk per decade). The ratio increased in China. Conclusions: HDL cholesterol has risen and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio has declined in many Western countries, Japan and South Korea, with only a weak correlation with changes in TC or non-HDL cholesterol.Peer reviewe

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe