The impact of environmental and climatic variation on the spatiotemporal trends of hospitalized pediatric diarrhea in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

It is predicted that the integration of climate-based early warning systems into existing action plans will facilitate the timely provision of interventions to diarrheal disease epidemics in resource-poor settings. Diarrhea remains a considerable public health problem in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam and we aimed to quantify variation in the impact of environmental conditions on diarrheal disease risk across the city. Using all inpatient diarrheal admissions data from three large hospitals within HCMC, we developed a mixed effects regression model to differentiate district-level variation in risk due to environmental conditions from the overarching seasonality of diarrheal disease hospitalization in HCMC. We identified considerable spatial heterogeneity in the risk of all-cause diarrhea across districts of HCMC with low elevation and differential responses to flooding, air temperature, and humidity driving further spatial heterogeneity in diarrheal disease risk. The incorporation of these results into predictive forecasting algorithms will provide a powerful resource to aid diarrheal disease prevention and control practices in HCMC and other similar settings

Accelerating electrostatic pair methods on graphical processing units to study molecules in supercritical carbon dioxide

Traditionally, electrostatic interactions are modelled using Ewald techniques, which provide a good approximation, but are poorly suited to GPU architectures. We use the GPU versions of the LAMMPS MD package to implement and assess the Wolf summation method. We compute transport and structural properties of pure carbon dioxide and mixtures of carbon dioxide with either methane or difluoromethane. The diffusion of pure carbon dioxide is indistinguishable when using the Wolf summation method instead of PPPM on GPUs. The optimum value of the potential damping parameter, α, is 0.075. We observe a decrease in accuracy when the system polarity increases, yet the method is robust for mildly polar systems. We anticipate the method can be used for a number of techniques, and applied to a variety of systems. Substitution of PPPM can yield a two-fold decrease in the wall-clock time

Trends in Prevalence of Advanced HIV Disease at Antiretroviral Therapy Enrollment - 10 Countries, 2004-2015.

Monitoring prevalence of advanced human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease (i.e., CD4+ T-cell count <200 cells/μL) among persons starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is important to understand ART program outcomes, inform HIV prevention strategy, and forecast need for adjunctive therapies.*,†,§ To assess trends in prevalence of advanced disease at ART initiation in 10 high-burden countries during 2004-2015, records of 694,138 ART enrollees aged ≥15 years from 797 ART facilities were analyzed. Availability of national electronic medical record systems allowed up-to-date evaluation of trends in Haiti (2004-2015), Mozambique (2004-2014), and Namibia (2004-2012), where prevalence of advanced disease at ART initiation declined from 75% to 34% (p<0.001), 73% to 37% (p<0.001), and 80% to 41% (p<0.001), respectively. Significant declines in prevalence of advanced disease during 2004-2011 were observed in Nigeria, Swaziland, Uganda, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe. The encouraging declines in prevalence of advanced disease at ART enrollment are likely due to scale-up of testing and treatment services and ART-eligibility guidelines encouraging earlier ART initiation. However, in 2015, approximately a third of new ART patients still initiated ART with advanced HIV disease. To reduce prevalence of advanced disease at ART initiation, adoption of World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended "treat-all" guidelines and strategies to facilitate earlier HIV testing and treatment are needed to reduce HIV-related mortality and HIV incidence

A common variant near TGFBR3 is associated with primary open angle glaucoma

Primary open angle glaucoma (POAG), a major cause of blindness worldwide, is a complex disease with a significant genetic contribution. We performed Exome Array (Illumina) analysis on 3504 POAG cases and 9746 controls with replication of the most significant findings in 9173 POAG cases and 26 780 controls across 18 collections of Asian, African and European descent. Apart from confirming strong evidence of association at CDKN2B-AS1 (rs2157719 [G], odds ratio [OR] = 0.71, P = 2.81 × 10−33), we observed one SNP showing significant association to POAG (CDC7–TGFBR3 rs1192415, ORG-allele = 1.13, Pmeta = 1.60 × 10−8). This particular SNP has previously been shown to be strongly associated with optic disc area and vertical cup-to-disc ratio, which are regarded as glaucoma-related quantitative traits. Our study now extends this by directly implicating it in POAG disease pathogenesis

Burden of cardiovascular diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2015 : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

To report the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) during 1990-2015. We used the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study for estimates of mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of different CVD in 22 countries of EMR. A total of 1.4 million CVD deaths (95% UI: 1.3-1.5) occurred in 2015 in the EMR, with the highest number of deaths in Pakistan (465,116) and the lowest number of deaths in Qatar (723). The age-standardized DALY rate per 100,000 decreased from 10,080 in 1990 to 8606 in 2015 (14.6% decrease). Afghanistan had the highest age-standardized DALY rate of CVD in both 1990 and 2015. Kuwait and Qatar had the lowest age-standardized DALY rates of CVD in 1990 and 2015, respectively. High blood pressure, high total cholesterol, and high body mass index were the leading risk factors for CVD. The age-standardized DALY rates in the EMR are considerably higher than the global average. These findings call for a comprehensive approach to prevent and control the burden of CVD in the region.Peer reviewe

The JCMT BISTRO Survey: Studying the Complex Magnetic Field of L43

We present observations of polarized dust emission at 850 μm from the L43 molecular cloud, which sits in the Ophiuchus cloud complex. The data were taken using SCUBA-2/POL-2 on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope as a part of the BISTRO large program. L43 is a dense (NH 10 22 2 ~ –1023 cm−2) complex molecular cloud with a submillimeter-bright starless core and two protostellar sources. There appears to be an evolutionary gradient along the isolated filament that L43 is embedded within, with the most evolved source closest to the Sco OB2 association. One of the protostars drives a CO outflow that has created a cavity to the southeast. We see a magnetic field that appears to be aligned with the cavity walls of the outflow, suggesting interaction with the outflow. We also find a magnetic field strength of up to ∼160 ± 30 μG in the main starless core and up to ∼90 ± 40 μG in the more diffuse, extended region. These field strengths give magnetically super- and subcritical values, respectively, and both are found to be roughly trans-Alfvénic. We also present a new method of data reduction for these denser but fainter objects like starless cores

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe