Analysis of costs and benefits of restoration-based hazardous fuel reduction, treatments vs. no treatment: Progress report #1 June 13, 2003.

This progress report presents preliminary results of an economic analysis comparing restoration-based fuel treatments to no treatments for areas identified at high risk for fire. The with and without treatment comparison focuses on ponderosa pine and dry mixed conifer forest ecosystems in New Mexico and Arizona. The analysis provides a conservative estimate of the potential economic losses due to no action. The results for New Mexico and Arizona indicate that restoration-based fuel treatments represent a rational economic choice even if one only considers direct avoided cost of current fires suppression activities. Society could pay up to (dollars)505 dollars per acre to treat the areas of high risk, and still break even in terms of investment. This investment cost is net of any value recovered from the restoration treatment; for example if the thinning part of a restoration treatment generated (dollars)200 per acre, the total break-even investment value rises to (dollars)700/acre. This investment break-even value does not include consideration of property damage and associated losses or lost ecosystem values, such as endangered species habitat and recreation amenity values

Issues in Forest Restoration: Full Cost Accounting of the 2010 Schultz Fire

The Schultz Fire of 2010 burned just over 15,000 forested acres and caused the evacuation of hundreds of homes. Heavy floods followed the fire, resulting in extensive damage to property downstream from the charred hillsides. Nearly three years later, seasonal flooding is still a concern and residents continue to live under the threat of swift floodwaters that may carve unanticipated pathways through their sloping neighborhoods. Official reports form city, county, state, and federal governments have listed response and mitigation costs of the fire and flood at nearly $60 million. This study adds to those costs, exploring the impacts on private property owners, as well as societal costs that are often overlooked when quantifying the full impact of disasters. Through analysis of Coconino County Assessor’s records, a survey of residents in the fire/flood impact area, and the perceived value of both endangered species habitat and human life, this study conservatively estimates the total impact of the Schultz Fire at between$133 million and $147 million

Shrinking a large dataset to identify variables associated with increased risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection in Western Kenya

Large datasets are often not amenable to analysis using traditional single-step approaches. Here, our general objective was to apply imputation techniques, principal component analysis (PCA), elastic net and generalized linear models to a large dataset in a systematic approach to extract the most meaningful predictors for a health outcome. We extracted predictors for Plasmodium falciparum infection, from a large covariate dataset while facing limited numbers of observations, using data from the People, Animals, and their Zoonoses (PAZ) project to demonstrate these techniques: data collected from 415 homesteads in western Kenya, contained over 1500 variables that describe the health, environment, and social factors of the humans, livestock, and the homesteads in which they reside. The wide, sparse dataset was simplified to 42 predictors of P. falciparum malaria infection and wealth rankings were produced for all homesteads. The 42 predictors make biological sense and are supported by previous studies. This systematic data-mining approach we used would make many large datasets more manageable and informative for decision-making processes and health policy prioritization

Global Search for New Physics with 2.0/fb at CDF

Data collected in Run II of the Fermilab Tevatron are searched for indications of new electroweak-scale physics. Rather than focusing on particular new physics scenarios, CDF data are analyzed for discrepancies with the standard model prediction. A model-independent approach (Vista) considers gross features of the data, and is sensitive to new large cross-section physics. Further sensitivity to new physics is provided by two additional algorithms: a Bump Hunter searches invariant mass distributions for "bumps" that could indicate resonant production of new particles; and the Sleuth procedure scans for data excesses at large summed transverse momentum. This combined global search for new physics in 2.0/fb of ppbar collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV reveals no indication of physics beyond the standard model.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures. Final version which appeared in Physical Review D Rapid Communication

Observation of Orbitally Excited B_s Mesons

We report the first observation of two narrow resonances consistent with states of orbitally excited (L=1) B_s mesons using 1 fb^{-1} of ppbar collisions at sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. We use two-body decays into K^- and B^+ mesons reconstructed as B^+ \to J/\psi K^+, J/\psi \to \mu^+ \mu^- or B^+ \to \bar{D}^0 \pi^+, \bar{D}^0 \to K^+ \pi^-. We deduce the masses of the two states to be m(B_{s1}) = 5829.4 +- 0.7 MeV/c^2 and m(B_{s2}^*) = 5839.7 +- 0.7 MeV/c^2.Comment: Version accepted and published by Phys. Rev. Let

Measurement of the Bottom-Strange Meson Mixing Phase in the Full CDF Data Set

We report a measurement of the bottom-strange meson mixing phase \beta_s using the time evolution of B0_s -> J/\psi (->\mu+\mu-) \phi (-> K+ K-) decays in which the quark-flavor content of the bottom-strange meson is identified at production. This measurement uses the full data set of proton-antiproton collisions at sqrt(s)= 1.96 TeV collected by the Collider Detector experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron, corresponding to 9.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity. We report confidence regions in the two-dimensional space of \beta_s and the B0_s decay-width difference \Delta\Gamma_s, and measure \beta_s in [-\pi/2, -1.51] U [-0.06, 0.30] U [1.26, \pi/2] at the 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model expectation. Assuming the standard model value of \beta_s, we also determine \Delta\Gamma_s = 0.068 +- 0.026 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps-1 and the mean B0_s lifetime, \tau_s = 1.528 +- 0.019 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps, which are consistent and competitive with determinations by other experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, Phys. Rev. Lett 109, 171802 (2012

Design and construction of the MicroBooNE detector

This paper describes the design and construction of the MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber and associated systems. MicroBooNE is the first phase of the Short Baseline Neutrino program, located at Fermilab, and will utilize the capabilities of liquid argon detectors to examine a rich assortment of physics topics. In this document details of design specifications, assembly procedures, and acceptance tests are reported

A 680,000-person megastudy of nudges to encourage vaccination in pharmacies

Encouraging vaccination is a pressing policy problem. To assess whether text-based reminders can encourage pharmacy vaccination and what kinds of messages work best, we conducted a megastudy. We randomly assigned 689,693 Walmart pharmacy patients to receive one of 22 different text reminders using a variety of different behavioral science principles to nudge flu vaccination or to a business-as-usual control condition that received no messages. We found that the reminder texts that we tested increased pharmacy vaccination rates by an average of 2.0 percentage points, or 6.8%, over a 3-mo follow-up period. The most-effective messages reminded patients that a flu shot was waiting for them and delivered reminders on multiple days. The top-performing intervention included two texts delivered 3 d apart and communicated to patients that a vaccine was “waiting for you.” Neither experts nor lay people anticipated that this would be the best-performing treatment, underscoring the value of simultaneously testing many different nudges in a highly powered megastudy.https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/119/6/e2115126119.full.pd

Saethre-Chotzen syndrome : cranofacial anomalies caused by genetic changes in the TWIST gene

In this thesis, one of the most frequently occurring and most variable craniosynostosis syndromes was investigated; Saethre-Chotzen syndrome. Craniosynostosis is the premature obliteration of cranial sutures in the developing embryo. It can also occur in the first few months of life. Saethre-Chotzen syndrome is, besides craniosynostosis, characterized by specific facial and limb abnormalities, of which the most frequently reported are ptosis, prominent crus helicis, cutaneous syndactyly of digit 2 and 3 on both hands and feet, and broad halluces. Saethre-Chotzen syndrome has been linked to the TWIST gene on chromosome 7p21.1. Mutations in and variably sized deletions of this gene can be found in patients with clinical features of Saethre-Chotzen syndrome. The latter, TWIST deletions, often also include part of the surrounding chromosome 7p and are reported to be associated with mental retardation. In Saethre-Chotzen patients, in whom neither a mutation nor a deletion of TWIST had been found, the FGFR3 P250R mutation was in some cases detected. This mutation has specifically been linked to Muenke syndrome that is characterized by unior bicoronal synostosis and slight facial dysmorphology. However, a Saethre-Chotzen like phenotype can also result from this mutation. Because of the possible overlap of Saethre-Chotzen with Muenke syndrome, these syndromes were studied in order to provide clinical criteria that discriminate between the two (chapter 4). Many phenotypic features occur in both syndromes. In addition, although unicoronal synostosis occurs slightly more frequently in Muenke syndrome, unicoronal and bicoronal synostosis are seen in both syndromes. The discrimination between Saethre-Chotzen and Muenke is often not made easily and the associated genes, TWIST and FGFR3, respectively, are simultaneously tested for pathogenic m

Measurement of the Bs Lifetime in Fully and Partially Reconstructed Bs -> Ds- (phi pi-)X Decays in pbar-p Collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV

We present a measurement of the Bs lifetime in fully and partially reconstructed Bs -> Ds(phi pi)X decays in 1.3 fb-1 of pbar-p collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV collected by the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. We measure tau(Bs) = 1.518 +/- 0.041 (stat.) +/- 0.027 (syst.) ps. The ratio of this result and the world average B0 lifetime yields tau(Bs)/tau(B0) = 0.99 +/-0.03, which is in agreement with recent theoretical predictions.Comment: submitted to Phys. Rev. Let