The role of topography and lateral velocity heterogeneities on near-source scattering and ground-motion variability

The scattering of seismic waves travelling in the Earth is not only caused by random velocity heterogeneity but also by surface topography. Both factors are known to strongly affect ground-motion complexity even at relatively short distance from the source. In this study, we simulate ground motion with a 3-D finite-difference wave propagation solver in the 0-5Hz frequency band using three topography models representative of the Swiss alpine region and realistic heterogeneous media characterized by the Von Karman correlation functions. Subsequently, we analyse and quantify the characteristics of the scattered wavefield in the near-source region. Our study shows that both topography and velocity heterogeneity scattering may excite large coda waves of comparable relative amplitude, especially at around 1Hz, although large variability in space may occur. Using the single scattering model, we estimate average QC values in the range 20-30 at 1Hz, 36-54 at 1.5Hz and 62-109 at 3Hz for constant background velocity models with no intrinsic attenuation. In principle, envelopes of topography-scattered seismic waves can be qualitatively predicted by theoretical back-scattering models, while forward- or hybrid-scattering models better reproduce the effects of random velocity heterogeneity on the wavefield. This is because continuous multiple scattering caused by small-scale velocity perturbations leads to more gentle coda decay and envelope broadening, while topography abruptly scatters the wavefield once it impinges the free surface. The large impedance contrast also results in more efficient mode mixing. However, the introduction of realistic low-velocity layers near the free surface increases the complexity of ground motion dramatically and indicates that the role of topography in elastic waves scattering can be relevant especially in proximity of the source. Long-period surface waves can form most of the late coda, especially when intrinsic attenuation is taken into account. Our simulations indicate that both topography and velocity heterogeneity scattering may result in large ground-motion variability, characterized by standard deviation values in the range 0.2-0.5 also at short distance from the source. We conclude that both topography and velocity heterogeneity should be considered to correctly assess the ground-motion variability in earthquake scenario studies even at intermediate frequenc

UR 3.13 - MAXIMUM OBSERVABLE SHAKING (MOS) MAPS OF ITALY

The main goal of UR 3.13 is to establish a work flow for a multi-layer map that includes the seismicity of Italy in terms of Maximum Observable Shaking (MOS), and the near-field/far-field boundaries (NF/FF) with respect to the major seismogenic faults mapped within the DISS database. Here we will discuss only the procedure to derive the MOS-map of Italy. Our approach merges updated knowledge on the Italian regional tectonic setting and on the Source Zone (SZ) definition and broadband scenario-like calculation of expected maximum shaking on a given area. For a given SZ, broadband ground shaking is computed for a rupture model derived from a Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) and its associated Typical Fault (TF). Amplitude spectra for deterministic Low Frequency and stochastic High Frequency waveforms are reconciled at intermediate frequency, where their domain of validity overlaps, to derive broadband synthetics and compute the associated shaking. As the MCE and TF float along the SZ, broadband ground motion is computed at each point surrounding the given fault and the maximum among observable shaking according to that scenario is plotted on the MOS map. So far the procedure was entirely successfully tested on the Macro Region MR4 (central-northern Apennine), while more detailed analysis is done on the MCE and TF suggested for the Colfiorito earthquake. Here our broadband ground motion scenario shows, besides a complex pattern of variation, a southwestern area of high PGA values, at about 20 km distance from the fault, likely associated to with the properties of the spatio-temporal complexity of the rupture process. For the purpose of the project a complete new map of SZ and MCE is under compilation, grouping seismogenic sources according to Mw and faulting mechanisms. This goal can be achieved most efficiently by targeted numerical simulations that cover the parameter range of interest (in terms of magnitude and distance etc) and consider a large suite earthquake rupture scenarios

Combination Antifungal Therapy for Cryptococcal Meningitis

Background Combination antifungal therapy (amphotericin B deoxycholate and flucytosine) is the recommended treatment for cryptococcal meningitis but has not been shown to reduce mortality, as compared with amphotericin B alone. We performed a randomized, controlled trial to determine whether combining flucytosine or high-dose fluconazole with high-dose amphotericin B improved survival at 14 and 70 days. Methods We conducted a randomized, three-group, open-label trial of induction therapy for cryptococcal meningitis in patients with human immunodeficiency virus infection. All patients received amphotericin B at a dose of 1 mg per kilogram of body weight per day; patients in group 1 were treated for 4 weeks, and those in groups 2 and 3 for 2 weeks. Patients in group 2 concurrently received flucytosine at a dose of 100 mg per kilogram per day for 2 weeks, and those in group 3 concurrently received fluconazole at a dose of 400 mg twice daily for 2 weeks. Results A total of 299 patients were enrolled. Fewer deaths occurred by days 14 and 70 among patients receiving amphotericin B and flucytosine than among those receiving amphotericin B alone (15 vs. 25 deaths by day 14; hazard ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.30 to 1.08; unadjusted P=0.08; and 30 vs. 44 deaths by day 70; hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.97; unadjusted P=0.04). Combination therapy with fluconazole had no significant effect on survival, as compared with monotherapy (hazard ratio for death by 14 days, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.44 to 1.41; P=0.42; hazard ratio for death by 70 days, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.45 to 1.11; P=0.13). Amphotericin B plus flucytosine was associated with significantly increased rates of yeast clearance from cerebrospinal fluid (−0.42 log10 colony-forming units [CFU] per milliliter per day vs. −0.31 and −0.32 log10 CFU per milliliter per day in groups 1 and 3, respectively; P<0.001 for both comparisons). Rates of adverse events were similar in all groups, although neutropenia was more frequent in patients receiving a combination therapy. Conclusions Amphotericin B plus flucytosine, as compared with amphotericin B alone, is associated with improved survival among patients with cryptococcal meningitis. A survival benefit of amphotericin B plus fluconazole was not found

Oleate induces K_ATP channel-dependent hyperpolarisation in mouse hypothalamic glucose-excited neurones without altering cellular energy charge

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The unsaturated fatty acid, oleate exhibits anorexigenic properties reducing food intake and hepatic glucose output. However, its mechanism of action in the hypothalamus has not been fully determined. This study investigated the effects of oleate and glucose on GT1-7 mouse hypothalamic cells (a model of glucose-excited (GE) neurons) and mouse arcuate nucleus (ARC) neurons. Whole-cell and perforated patch-clamp recordings, immunoblotting and cell energy status measures were used to investigate oleate- and glucose-sensing properties of mouse hypothalamic neurons. Oleate or lowered glucose concentration caused hyperpolarization and inhibition of firing of GT1-7 cells by the activation of ATP-sensitive K(+) channels (KATP). This effect of oleate was not dependent on fatty acid oxidation or raised AMP-activated protein kinase activity or prevented by the presence of the UCP2 inhibitor genipin. Oleate did not alter intracellular calcium, indicating that CD36/fatty acid translocase may not play a role. However, oleate activation of KATP may require ATP metabolism. The short-chain fatty acid octanoate was unable to replicate the actions of oleate on GT1-7 cells. Although oleate decreased GT1-7 cell mitochondrial membrane potential there was no change in total cellular ATP or ATP/ADP ratios. Perforated patch and whole-cell recordings from mouse hypothalamic slices demonstrated that oleate hyperpolarized a subpopulation of ARC GE neurons by KATP activation. Additionally, in a separate small population of ARC neurons, oleate application or lowered glucose concentration caused membrane depolarization. In conclusion, oleate induces KATP-dependent hyperpolarization and inhibition of firing of a subgroup of GE hypothalamic neurons without altering cellular energy charge.This work was supported by: grants from the Wellcome Trust (grant number 068692) to M.L.J. Ashford; from Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation (JDRF) to R.J. McCrimmon and Fellowships to C. Beall (JDRF; 3-576-2010 and Diabetes UK 13/0004647

Large expert-curated database for benchmarking document similarity detection in biomedical literature search

Document recommendation systems for locating relevant literature have mostly relied on methods developed a decade ago. This is largely due to the lack of a large offline gold-standard benchmark of relevant documents that cover a variety of research fields such that newly developed literature search techniques can be compared, improved and translated into practice. To overcome this bottleneck, we have established the RElevant LIterature SearcH consortium consisting of more than 1500 scientists from 84 countries, who have collectively annotated the relevance of over 180 000 PubMed-listed articles with regard to their respective seed (input) article/s. The majority of annotations were contributed by highly experienced, original authors of the seed articles. The collected data cover 76% of all unique PubMed Medical Subject Headings descriptors. No systematic biases were observed across different experience levels, research fields or time spent on annotations. More importantly, annotations of the same document pairs contributed by different scientists were highly concordant. We further show that the three representative baseline methods used to generate recommended articles for evaluation (Okapi Best Matching 25, Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency and PubMed Related Articles) had similar overall performances. Additionally, we found that these methods each tend to produce distinct collections of recommended articles, suggesting that a hybrid method may be required to completely capture all relevant articles. The established database server located at https://relishdb.ict.griffith.edu.au is freely available for the downloading of annotation data and the blind testing of new methods. We expect that this benchmark will be useful for stimulating the development of new powerful techniques for title and title/abstract-based search engines for relevant articles in biomedical research.Peer reviewe

Search for excited leptons in proton-proton collisions at root s=8 TeV

Peer reviewe

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens