ProbShakemap: A Python toolbox propagating source uncertainty to ground motion prediction for urgent computing applications

Seismic urgent computing enables early assessment of an earthquake’s impact by delivering rapid simulation-based ground-shaking forecasts. This information can be used by local authorities and disaster risk managers to inform decisions about rescue and mitigation activities in the affected areas. Uncertainty quantification for urgent computing applications stands as one of the most challenging tasks. Present-day practice accounts for the uncertainty stemming from Ground Motion Models (GMMs), but neglects the uncertainty originating from the source model, which, in the first minutes after an earthquake, is only known approximately. In principle, earthquake source uncertainty can be propagated to ground motion predictions with physics-based simulations of an ensemble of earthquake scenarios capturing source variability. However, full ensemble simulation is unfeasible under emergency conditions with strict time constraints. Here we present ProbShakemap, a Python toolbox that generates multi-scenario ensembles and delivers ensemble-based forecasts for urgent source uncertainty quantification. The toolbox implements GMMs to efficiently propagate source uncertainty from the ensemble of scenarios to ground motion predictions at a set of Points of Interest (POIs), while also accounting for model uncertainty (by accommodating multiple GMMs, if available) along with their intrinsic uncertainty. ProbShakemap incorporates functionalities from two open-source toolboxes routinely implemented in seismic hazard and risk analyses: the USGS ShakeMap software and the OpenQuake-engine. ShakeMap modules are implemented to automatically select the set and weights of GMMs available for the region struck by the earthquake, whereas the OpenQuake-engine libraries are used to compute ground shaking over a set of points by randomly sampling the available GMMs. ProbShakemap provides the user with a set of tools to explore, at each POI, the predictive distribution of ground motion values encompassing source uncertainty, model uncertainty and the inherent GMMs variability. Our proposed method is quantitatively tested against the 30 October 2016 Mw 6.5 Norcia, and the 6 February 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcik earthquakes. We also illustrate the differences between ProbShakemap and ShakeMap output.Published105748JCR Journa

The International Geoethics Research Infrastructure

This article is includes in the Special Issue "25 Years of Advancing Geoethics and Social Geosciences at INGV " of the Journal of Geoethics and Social GeosciencesThe development of geoethics has made remarkable progress in recent years, involving a growing number of scholars from various disciplines. This has led to the creation of spaces dedicated to sharing reflections, points of view, and study material. The network of relationships between scholars has significatively incremented both physical and virtual spaces for discussions strengthened conceptual coherence in geoethical thought, anchoring reflections in the historical evolution of the discipline and promoting further developments through open analysis. At the heart of this network is the International Association for Promoting Geoethics (IAPG), founded in 2012. More recently, two new bodies have joined this network: the Commission on Geoethics of the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS), established in February 2023, which serves as the supporting branch of the IAPG to the IUGS and is the official body addressing geoethics and social geosciences for the Union; and the Chair on Geoethics of the International Council for Philosophy and Human Sciences (CIPSH), established in January 2024, whose aim is to broaden the international research network by promoting interdisciplinary initiatives that integrate geosciences, humanities, and social sciences through geoethics. These three bodies together represent the International Geoethics Research Infrastructure (IGRI), built over years of activity in geoethics at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Rome, Italy. It also includes the School on Geoethics and Natural Issues (the “Schola”), founded in 2019, and two editorial initiatives. This paper provides an overview of the foundations of geoethics and outlines the progressive development of the international research infrastructure supporting it.Published1-20OS: Terza missioneN/A or not JC

HSIT system: Citizen Participation in Seismology for Data Collection and Enhanced Understanding of Earthquake Effects

Hai Sentito Il Terremoto (HSIT: Did You Feel the Earthquake?) is one of the longest-running citizen science projects on the web. Launched experimentally in 1996 and fully operational since 2007, HSIT has collected data on over 16,800 earthquakes felt in Italy through more than 1,500,000 questionnaires submitted by citizens. Of these, nearly 30,000 participants are registered with HSIT, ensuring continuous engagement across the national territory. The results of this collaboration are bidirectional: citizens contribute their experience of earthquake perception, forming a core dataset that provides localized information. In return, they receive real-time feedback on the earthquake's effects on their region, represented in macroseismic intensity using the Mercalli (MCS) and European (EMS) scales. This partnership enables seismologists to access high-resolution data for analyzing territorial responses to seismic events, including attenuation laws, identifying amplification and/or attenuation zones, and perception patterns based on urban characteristics and behavioral factors. Citizen involvement has expanded the scope of the investigation to include moderate-to-low magnitude earthquakes and distant areas affected by stronger quakes. Registered participants, in particular, gain awareness of earthquakes as ongoing, active phenomena, shifting from a perception of rare catastrophic events to a continuous focus on regional seismic risks. The HSIT project bridges the gap between scientific knowledge and common understanding, fostering a shared experience of living in earthquake-prone regions with awareness and respect for associated risks and preventive measures.Published1-20OS: Terza missioneOST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impattoN/A or not JC

Ionospheric tomography for SWARM satellite orbit determination using single-frequency GNSS data

Ionospheric tomography offers three-dimensional (3D) description of the electron density distribution, enabling the direct incorporation of electron density data into the slant total electron content (STEC) computation. As a result, STEC derived from tomography helps mitigate the ionospheric delay experienced in the line of sight between global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) and satellites positioned in low Earth orbits (LEO). Tomography can therefore be effectively employed to correct single-frequency GNSS observations and allow enhanced positioning of spaceborne platforms. We demonstrate the accuracy and performance of a global-scale ionospheric tomography method for determining satellite orbits, utilizing single-frequency GNSS measurements combined with a precise point positioning (PPP) algorithm. We compare the tomographic outcomes against orbit determination derived from the GRoup and PHase ionospheric correction (GRAPHIC) observable and based on an ionospheric climatological model. Near the peak of solar cycle 24, the overall accuracy achieved with tomography was around 3.8 m. notably, compared to the background climatological model, tomography demonstrated improvements ranging from 15 to 20%. The GRAPHIC method outperformed tomography, achieving an accuracy of 0.7 m, whereas we obtained around 7 m accuracy when no ionospheric model is employed. Although the developed ionospheric tomography has yet to match the precision of GRAPHIC, our results bring us relatively closer to this objective.Published26OSA3: Climatologia e meteorologia spazialeJCR Journa

Mass-change And Geosciences International Constellation (MAGIC) expected impact on science and applications

The joint ESA/NASA Mass-change And Geosciences International Constellation (MAGIC) has the objective to extend time-series from previous gravity missions, including an improvement of accuracy and spatio-temporal resolution. The long-term monitoring of Earth’s gravity field carries information on mass change induced by water cycle, climate change and mass transport processes between atmosphere, cryosphere, oceans and solid Earth. MAGIC will be composed of two satellite pairs flying in different orbit planes. The NASA/DLR-led first pair (P1) is expected to be in a near-polar orbit around 500 km of altitude; while the second ESA-led pair (P2) is expected to be in an inclined orbit of 65°–70° at approximately 400 km altitude. The ESA-led pair P2 Next Generation Gravity Mission shall be launched after P1 in a staggered manner to form the MAGIC constellation. The addition of an inclined pair shall lead to reduction of temporal aliasing effects and consequently of reliance on de-aliasing models and post-processing. The main novelty of the MAGIC constellation is the delivery of mass-change products at higher spatial resolution, temporal (i.e. subweekly) resolution, shorter latency and higher accuracy than the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO). This will pave the way to new science applications and operational services. In this paper, an overview of various fields of science and service applications for hydrology, cryosphere, oceanography, solid Earth, climate change and geodesy is provided. These thematic fields and newly enabled applications and services were analysed in the frame of the initial ESA Science Support activities for MAGIC. The analyses of MAGIC scenarios for different application areas in the field of geosciences confirmed that the double-pair configuration will significantly enlarge the number of observable mass-change phenomena by resolving smaller spatial scales with an uncertainty that satisfies evolved user requirements expressed by international bodies such as IUGG. The required uncertainty levels of dedicated thematic fields met by MAGIC unfiltered Level-2 products will benefit hydrological applications by recovering more than 90 per cent of the major river basins worldwide at 260 km spatial resolution, cryosphere applications by enabling mass change signal separation in the interior of Greenland from those in the coastal zones and by resolving small-scale mass variability in challenging regions such as the Antarctic Peninsula, oceanography applications by monitoring meridional overturning circulation changes on timescales of years and decades, climate applications by detecting amplitude and phase changes of Terrestrial Water Storage after 30 yr in 64 and 56 per cent of the global land areas and solid Earth applications by lowering the Earthquake detection threshold from magnitude 8.8 to magnitude 7.4 with spatial resolution increased to 333 km.Published1288–1308JCR Journa

Evaluation of the b Maps on the Faults of the Major (M > 7) South California Earthquakes

We use the Godano et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ea002205) method for evaluating the b maps of the faults associated with the largest earthquakes M ≥ 7.0 that occurred in California. The method allows an independent evaluation of the b parameter, avoiding the overlap of the cells and the omission of some earthquakes, while keeping all the available information in the catalog. We analyzed four large earthquakes: Landers, Hector Mine, Baja California, and Searles Valley. The maps obtained confirm that the b value can be considered as a strain meter and allow us to elucidate the presence of barriers, such as obstacles to the propagation of the fracture, on the fault of the analyzed earthquakes. A further estimated parameter is the time window during which aftershocks occur in the cell, Δt. This quantity is very useful for a better definition of the aftershock generation mechanism. It reveals where the stress is released in a short time interval and how the complexity of the faulting process controls the occurrence of aftershocks on the fault, and also the duration of the entire sequence.Publishede2023EA002933JCR Journa

Temporary Seismic Network in the Metropolitan Area of Rome (Italy): New Insight on an Urban Seismology Experiment

This study presents data and preliminary analysis from a temporary seismic network (SPQR), which was deployed in the urban area of Rome (Italy) for three months in early 2021. The network was designed to investigate the city’s subsurface while evaluating the feasibility of a permanent urban seismic network, and consisted of 24 seismic stations. Despite significant anthropogenic noise, the SPQR network well recorded earthquake signals, revealing clear spatial variability referable to site effects. In addition, the network’s continuous recordings allowed the use of seismic noise and earthquake signals to derive spectral ratios at sites located in different geological and lithological settings. During the experiment, there were periods of activity restrictions imposed on citizens to limit the spread of COVID‐19. Although the observed power spectral density levels at stations may not show visible noise reductions, they do cause variations in calculated spectral ratios across measurement sites. Finally, a statistical noise analysis was conducted on continuous seismic station data to evaluate their performance in terms of detection threshold for earthquakes. The results indicate that all network stations can effectively record earthquakes with a good signal‐to‐noise ratio (≥5 for P and S phases) in the magnitude range of 1.9–3.3 at distances of 10 km and 80 km, respectively. In addition, the network has the potential to record earthquakes of magnitude 4 up to 200 km, covering areas in Central Italy that are far from the city. This analysis shows that it is possible to establish urban observatories in noisy cities such as Rome, where hazard studies are of particular importance due to the high vulnerability (inherent fragility of its monumental heritage) and exposure.The experiment was financed with funds of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) dedicated to the institution’s open research projects (RicercaLibera) to promote free research within the INGV (Research Project: Three-dimensional shear-wave velocity imaging by ambient seismic noise tomography in the urban area of Rome city - Central Italy)Published2554–2569OST5 Verso un nuovo MonitoraggioJCR Journa

Lessons Learnt from Monitoring the Etna Volcano Using an IoT Sensor Network through a Period of Intense Eruptive Activity

This paper describes the successes and failures after 4 years of continuous operation of a network of sensors, communicating nodes, and gateways deployed on the Etna Volcano in Sicily since 2019, including a period of Etna intense volcanic activity that occurred in 2021 and resulted in over 60 paroxysms. It documents how the installation of gateways at medium altitude allowed for data collection from sensors up to the summit craters. Most of the sensors left on the volcanic edifice during winters and during this period of intense volcanic activity were destroyed, but the whole gateway infrastructure remained fully operational, allowing for a very fruitful new field campaign two years later, in August 2023. Our experience has shown that the best strategy for IoT deployment on very active and/or high-altitude volcanoes like Etna is to permanently install gateways in areas where they are protected both from meteorological and volcanic hazards, that is mainly at the foot of the volcanic edifice, and to deploy temporary sensors and communicating nodes in the more exposed areas during field trips or in the summer season.Published1577OSV3: Sviluppo di nuovi sistemi osservazionali e di analisi ad alta sensibilitàJCR Journa

Crustal stress pattern at Mt. Etna volcano

Stress fields may exhibit variegated patterns, especially in volcanic areas where several processes superimpose their effects in space and time. The comprehension of such patterns may not be straightforward to investigate. This work investigates the pattern of the crustal stress in the area of Mt. Etna Volcano (Sicily, Italy). This has been possible through a collection of more than 800 stress indicators derived from seismological and volcanological/geological information. In particular, the type of collected data allows to consider, for the first time in this area, two different temporal steps in the evolution of Etna volcano: the present-day and the previous volcanic phase at 15 ka. Results indicate a transition between a background shallow NW-SE tensional regime and a deep SW-NE compressional one that occurs between 6 and 16 km depth and which well fits with the present-day geodynamic framework of the area. The occurrence of small-scale lateral variations is interpreted as the second-order effect of the structures of the active front buried beneath the volcano, to the volcano loading, and to the feeding system. The temporal variations in the area surrounding the volcano suggest a major rearrangement of the background stress field evidenced by the swap between minimum and maximum horizontal stress directions. Conversely, during the same period, the stress pattern in the exact correspondence of the volcanic edifice showed to be stable and with a radial arrangement. Such coherence would support the literature which suggests a long-term inflation process started at least 15 kyr ago.Published102017OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametriciJCR Journa

First evidence of a geodetic anomaly in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) ground deformation pattern revealed by DInSAR and GNSS measurements during the 2021–2023 escalating unrest phase

Campi Flegrei caldera is an Italian high-risk volcano experiencing a progressively more intense long-term uplift, accompanied by increasing seismicity and geochemical emissions over the last two decades. Ground deformation shows an axisymmetric bell-shaped pattern, with a maximum uplift of about 120 cm, from 2005, in the caldera central area. We analyzed Sentinel-1 and COSMO-SkyMed Multi-Temporal DInSAR measurements and GNSS data to reveal and investigate a geodetic anomaly that has clearly manifested since 2021, locally deviating from the typical bell-shaped deformation pattern. This anomaly is located east of Pozzuoli town, in the Mt. Olibano-–Accademia area, covers an area of about 1.3 km and shows, in comparison to surrounding areas, a maximum uplift deficit of about 9 cm between 2021 and 2023. To investigate the anomaly causes, we analyzed the caldera seismicity and inverted the DInSAR data to determine the primary source of the ground deformation pattern, which is consistent with a penny-shaped source located approximately 3800 m beneath the Pozzuoli town, with a radius of about 1200 m. We also found that the time evolution of the uplift deficit in the geodetic anomaly area correlates well with the earthquake occurrence, with the greater magnitude events clustering in this area. These considerations suggest the geodetic anomaly is a local response to the tensile stress regime produced by the inflating primary deformation source. This phenomenon can be influenced by the Mt. Olibano–Accademia lava domes lithological heterogeneities that may induce a localized reaction to ground deformation during the in flationary phase. Our interpretation aligns with the concentration of earthquakes and hydrothermal fluid emissions in this area, indicating the presence of faults, fractures, and fluid circulation. Accordingly, the geodetic anomaly area represents a zone of crustal weakness that requires careful monitoring and study.Published104060JCR Journa