ProbShakemap: A Python toolbox propagating source uncertainty to ground motion prediction for urgent computing applications

Seismic urgent computing enables early assessment of an earthquake’s impact by delivering rapid simulation-based ground-shaking forecasts. This information can be used by local authorities and disaster risk managers to inform decisions about rescue and mitigation activities in the affected areas. Uncertainty quantification for urgent computing applications stands as one of the most challenging tasks. Present-day practice accounts for the uncertainty stemming from Ground Motion Models (GMMs), but neglects the uncertainty originating from the source model, which, in the first minutes after an earthquake, is only known approximately. In principle, earthquake source uncertainty can be propagated to ground motion predictions with physics-based simulations of an ensemble of earthquake scenarios capturing source variability. However, full ensemble simulation is unfeasible under emergency conditions with strict time constraints. Here we present ProbShakemap, a Python toolbox that generates multi-scenario ensembles and delivers ensemble-based forecasts for urgent source uncertainty quantification. The toolbox implements GMMs to efficiently propagate source uncertainty from the ensemble of scenarios to ground motion predictions at a set of Points of Interest (POIs), while also accounting for model uncertainty (by accommodating multiple GMMs, if available) along with their intrinsic uncertainty. ProbShakemap incorporates functionalities from two open-source toolboxes routinely implemented in seismic hazard and risk analyses: the USGS ShakeMap software and the OpenQuake-engine. ShakeMap modules are implemented to automatically select the set and weights of GMMs available for the region struck by the earthquake, whereas the OpenQuake-engine libraries are used to compute ground shaking over a set of points by randomly sampling the available GMMs. ProbShakemap provides the user with a set of tools to explore, at each POI, the predictive distribution of ground motion values encompassing source uncertainty, model uncertainty and the inherent GMMs variability. Our proposed method is quantitatively tested against the 30 October 2016 Mw 6.5 Norcia, and the 6 February 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcik earthquakes. We also illustrate the differences between ProbShakemap and ShakeMap output.Published105748JCR Journa

The International Geoethics Research Infrastructure

This article is includes in the Special Issue "25 Years of Advancing Geoethics and Social Geosciences at INGV " of the Journal of Geoethics and Social GeosciencesThe development of geoethics has made remarkable progress in recent years, involving a growing number of scholars from various disciplines. This has led to the creation of spaces dedicated to sharing reflections, points of view, and study material. The network of relationships between scholars has significatively incremented both physical and virtual spaces for discussions strengthened conceptual coherence in geoethical thought, anchoring reflections in the historical evolution of the discipline and promoting further developments through open analysis. At the heart of this network is the International Association for Promoting Geoethics (IAPG), founded in 2012. More recently, two new bodies have joined this network: the Commission on Geoethics of the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS), established in February 2023, which serves as the supporting branch of the IAPG to the IUGS and is the official body addressing geoethics and social geosciences for the Union; and the Chair on Geoethics of the International Council for Philosophy and Human Sciences (CIPSH), established in January 2024, whose aim is to broaden the international research network by promoting interdisciplinary initiatives that integrate geosciences, humanities, and social sciences through geoethics. These three bodies together represent the International Geoethics Research Infrastructure (IGRI), built over years of activity in geoethics at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Rome, Italy. It also includes the School on Geoethics and Natural Issues (the “Schola”), founded in 2019, and two editorial initiatives. This paper provides an overview of the foundations of geoethics and outlines the progressive development of the international research infrastructure supporting it.Published1-20OS: Terza missioneN/A or not JC

HSIT system: Citizen Participation in Seismology for Data Collection and Enhanced Understanding of Earthquake Effects

Hai Sentito Il Terremoto (HSIT: Did You Feel the Earthquake?) is one of the longest-running citizen science projects on the web. Launched experimentally in 1996 and fully operational since 2007, HSIT has collected data on over 16,800 earthquakes felt in Italy through more than 1,500,000 questionnaires submitted by citizens. Of these, nearly 30,000 participants are registered with HSIT, ensuring continuous engagement across the national territory. The results of this collaboration are bidirectional: citizens contribute their experience of earthquake perception, forming a core dataset that provides localized information. In return, they receive real-time feedback on the earthquake's effects on their region, represented in macroseismic intensity using the Mercalli (MCS) and European (EMS) scales. This partnership enables seismologists to access high-resolution data for analyzing territorial responses to seismic events, including attenuation laws, identifying amplification and/or attenuation zones, and perception patterns based on urban characteristics and behavioral factors. Citizen involvement has expanded the scope of the investigation to include moderate-to-low magnitude earthquakes and distant areas affected by stronger quakes. Registered participants, in particular, gain awareness of earthquakes as ongoing, active phenomena, shifting from a perception of rare catastrophic events to a continuous focus on regional seismic risks. The HSIT project bridges the gap between scientific knowledge and common understanding, fostering a shared experience of living in earthquake-prone regions with awareness and respect for associated risks and preventive measures.Published1-20OS: Terza missioneOST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impattoN/A or not JC

Ionospheric tomography for SWARM satellite orbit determination using single-frequency GNSS data

Ionospheric tomography offers three-dimensional (3D) description of the electron density distribution, enabling the direct incorporation of electron density data into the slant total electron content (STEC) computation. As a result, STEC derived from tomography helps mitigate the ionospheric delay experienced in the line of sight between global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) and satellites positioned in low Earth orbits (LEO). Tomography can therefore be effectively employed to correct single-frequency GNSS observations and allow enhanced positioning of spaceborne platforms. We demonstrate the accuracy and performance of a global-scale ionospheric tomography method for determining satellite orbits, utilizing single-frequency GNSS measurements combined with a precise point positioning (PPP) algorithm. We compare the tomographic outcomes against orbit determination derived from the GRoup and PHase ionospheric correction (GRAPHIC) observable and based on an ionospheric climatological model. Near the peak of solar cycle 24, the overall accuracy achieved with tomography was around 3.8 m. notably, compared to the background climatological model, tomography demonstrated improvements ranging from 15 to 20%. The GRAPHIC method outperformed tomography, achieving an accuracy of 0.7 m, whereas we obtained around 7 m accuracy when no ionospheric model is employed. Although the developed ionospheric tomography has yet to match the precision of GRAPHIC, our results bring us relatively closer to this objective.Published26OSA3: Climatologia e meteorologia spazialeJCR Journa

Comment on “A Seismic Moment Magnitude Scale” by Ranjit Das, Mukat Lal Sharma, Hans Raj Wason, Deepankar Choudhury, and Gabriel Gonzalez

Moment magnitude Mw was first defined by Hiroo Kanamori in the late 1970s, when the availability of new force balance seismometers made it possible to measure the seismic moment M0 with virtually no limits in the frequency passband. For this reason, Mw does not become saturated even for the largest earthquakes ever recorded. Mw has been chosen in such a way that it coincides best with the previous definitions of magnitude (Ms, ML, mb, etc.) on certain ranges of values but can deviate significantly from them within other ranges. A few years ago, Das and colleagues proposed a new moment magnitude scale Mwg with the aim of better reproducing the values of mb and Ms over their entire range and to better predict the energy ES radiated by earthquakes. We show that there was no need to define such a new scale and that Mwg is not even optimal to achieve the goal of matching ES.Published2270–2274OST2 Deformazione e Hazard sismico e da maremotoJCR Journa

Last interglacial and MIS 9e relative sea-level highstands in the Central Mediterranean: a reappraisal from coastal cave deposits in the Cilento area, Southern Italy

A revaluation of the relative sea-level (RSL) indicators in the Baia di Infreschi (Cilento, Southern Italy) supported by new 30 U/Th dating on speleothems indicates that the upper level of Lithophaga burrows identified by Bini et al. (2020) at ~9 m a.s.l. and correlated to the Last Interglacial (LIG) highstand should be referred to the highstand of the MIS 9e, whereas the local RSL for the highstand of the LIG is now reassessed at 5.3 ± 0.18 m a.s.l. The upper level of the Lithophaga marker can be followed for ~12 km along the coast, suggesting a substantial absence of important relative tectonic movements. In the Baia di Infreschi an additional marine indicator, a notch sealed by a flowstone dated ~110 ka, indicates several phases of RSL stationing below the maximum highstand of the LIG. The presence of flowstones as low as 2 m a.s.l. dated to the MIS 7 shows that the highstand of MIS 7 was probably below the present sea level. All these evidences allow us to reassess the stratigraphy of some archaeological caves in the area, indicating that the sedimentary successions preserved there are older than what was previously believed.Published100212OSA2: Evoluzione climatica: effetti e loro mitigazioneJCR Journa

Excess degassing drives long-term volcanic unrest at Nevado del Ruiz

This study combines volcanic gas compositions, SO2 flux and satellite thermal data collected at Nevado del Ruiz between 2018 and 2021. We find the Nevado del Ruiz plume to have exhibited relatively steady, high CO2 compositions (avg. CO2/ST ratios of 5.4 ± 1.9) throughout. Our degassing models support that the CO2/ST ratio variability derives from volatile exsolution from andesitic magma stored in the 1-4 km depth range. Separate ascent of CO2-rich gas bubbles through shallow (< 1 km depth), viscous, conduit resident magma causes the observed excess degassing. We infer that degassing of ~ 974 mm3 of shallow (1-4 km) stored magma has sourced the elevated SO2 degassing recorded during 2018-2021 (average flux ~ 1548 t/d). Of this, only < 1 mm3 of magma have been erupted through dome extrusion, highlighting a large imbalance between erupted and degassed magma. Escalating deep CO2 gas flushing, combined with the disruption of passive degassing, through sudden accumulation and pressurization of bubbles due to lithostatic pressure, may accelerate volcanic unrest and eventually lead to a major eruption.Published1230OSV1: Verso la previsione dei fenomeni vulcanici pericolosiJCR Journa

Exploration of the 2021 Mw 7.3 Maduo Earthquake by Fusing the Electron Density and Magnetic Field Data of Swarm Satellites

Earthquake is a complex and multivariate problem. Using a single parameter to extract anomalies is difficult to completely and truly reflect the preparation activity before earthquakes. In this paper, we develop a fusion anomaly extraction method based on principal component analysis (PCA) and non-negative tensor decomposition (NTD). It extracts anomalies by combining features of different parameters, which can obtain earthquake-related signals from dataset and reveal some weak anomalies hidden in individual parameters. By PCA-NTD, we fused the electron density and magnetic field data from the Swarm satellites to explore the possible precursors of 2021 M7.3 Maduo earthquake and compared the results with those of the single-parameter analyses. The cumulative value of fusion anomalies indicates two acceleration stages before the mainshock: from -51 to -24 days, following a sigmoid trend, and from -21 to the earthquake occurrence, following a power-law behavior. The second acceleration is more pronounced than the first one, and its critical point occurs near the date of the Maduo earthquake. Spatially, these anomalies are located around important fault zones (Altun fault, Jiali fault, and Red River fault) and the epicenter region, which likely reflect the northward stress and eastward stress experienced in the seismogenic area before the mainshock. As the earthquake approaches, the anomalies become more concentrated and closer to the impending epicenter. Furthermore, the ionospheric anomalies correspond well with the anomalous phenomena of lithospheric activity and atmospheric thermal radiation, which support a multi-channel lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling (LAIC).Published2002424OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impattoJCR Journa

Performance Comparison of CFD Microbenchmarks on Diverse HPC Architectures

OpenFOAM is a CFD software widely used in both industry and academia. The exaFOAM project aims at enhancing the HPC scalability of OpenFOAM, while identifying its current bottlenecks and proposing ways to overcome them. For the assessment of the software components and the code profiling during the code development, lightweight but significant benchmarks should be used. The answer was to develop microbenchmarks, with a small memory footprint and short runtime. The name microbenchmark does not mean that they have been prepared to be the smallest possible test cases, as they have been developed to fit in a compute node, which usually has dozens of compute cores. The microbenchmarks cover a broad band of applications: incompressible and compressible flow, combustion, viscoelastic flow and adjoint optimization. All benchmarks are part of the OpenFOAM HPC Technical Committee repository and are fully accessible. The performance using HPC systems with Intel and AMD processors (x86_64 architecture) and Arm processors (aarch64 architecture) have been benchmarked. For the workloads in this study, the mean performance with the AMD CPU is 62% higher than with Arm and 42% higher than with Intel. The AMD processor seems particularly suited resulting in an overall shorter time-to-solution.Published115OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametriciJCR Journa

b value enlightens different rheological behaviour in Campi Flegrei caldera

The Campi Flegrei caldera is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world and since 2005 it is in unrest. Here we evaluate the 3D tomography of the b value at the Campi Flegrei volcanic area revealing a very good correlation with the structure of the hydrothermal system involved in the bradiseismic phenomenon. More precisely, we observe the smallest b-values where we expect the higher stress/strain concentration, namely in the caprock, and for the deepest seismicity. Conversely, the largest b values are observed where the porosity of the medium allows the passage of the volcanic gases toward the surface. Values of b close to typical tectonic ones are observed where the presence of faulting structures is well documented.Published275JCR Journa