Risk of being granted disability pension among incident cancer patients before and after a structural pension reform:A Danish population-based, matched cohort study

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the risk of being granted a disability pension (DP) among incident cancer patients up to five years after diagnosis compared to a match control group, before and after the structural reform of the Danish Disability Pension Act in 2013. METHODS: All 20–60-year-old incident cancer-diagnosed individuals from 2000 to 2015 were identified in the Danish Cancer Registry. A control group, not previously diagnosed with cancer, was identified in Statistics Denmark matched by gender, age, education, and household income. Risk differences (RD) in cumulative incidence proportions of being granted a DP between cancer patients and controls were analyzed before and after the reform. RESULTS: In total, 111 773 incident cancer patients and 506 904 controls were included in the study. Before reform 10 561 cancer patients and 11 231 controls were granted DP; and 2570 cancer patients and 2646 controls were granted DP after the reform. The adjusted RD of being granted DP was significantly higher for cancer patients versus controls at all time points before the reform. The RD increased the most during the first (RD 3.6, 95% CI 3.5–3.7) and second (RD 7.2, 95% CI 7.0–7.4) follow-up year and levelled off the remaining three years. After the reform, the adjusted RD were lower for all 1–5 follow-up years compared to before the reform (RD range 2.8–7.7, 95% CI 2.6–8.1). CONCLUSION: The 2013 reform of the Disability Pension Act reduced the risk of cancer patients being granted DP. The impact on a personal level should be further explored

Optimal outcomes from cardiac rehabilitation are associated with longer-term follow-up and risk factor status at 12 months : An observational registry-based study

AIM: The purpose of Cardiac Rehabilitation (CR) is to promote and reduce risk factors in the short and long term, however, the latter has, to date, been poorly evaluated. We explored characteristics associated with provision and outcomes of a long-term assessment in CR. METHOD: Data from the UK National Audit of CR between April 2015 and March 2020 was used. Programmes were selected if they had an established mechanism and routine methodology to collect the 12-month assessments. Risk factors pre and post phase II CR and at the 12-month assessment were explored; BMI ≤30, ≥150 min of physical activity per week, hospital anxiety and depression scale (HADS) scores <8. The data came from 32 programmes, 24,644 patients with coronary heart disease. Patients being in at least one optimal risk factor stage throughout phase II CR (OR = 1.43 95% CI 1.28 to 1.59) or successfully reaching an optimal stage during phase II CR (OR = 1.61 95% CI 1.44 to 1.80) had an increased likelihood of being assessed at 12 months compared to those who did not. Patients being in the optimal stage upon completion of phase II CR had an increased likelihood of still being in the optimal stage at 12 months. Most prominent was BMI; (OR = 14.6 (95% CI 11.1 to 19.2) for patients reaching an optimal stage throughout phase II CR. CONCLUSION: Being in an optimal stage upon routine CR completion could be an overlooked predictor in the provision of a long-term CR service and prediction of longer-term risk factor status

Cardiac rehabilitation and physical activity : systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: To undertake a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the impact of cardiac rehabilitation (CR) on physical activity (PA) levels of patients with heart disease and the methodological quality of these studies. METHODS: Databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, CINAHL, PsychINFO and SportDiscus) were searched without language restriction from inception to January 2017 for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing CR to usual care control in adults with heart failure (HF) or coronary heart disease (CHD) and measuring PA subjectively or objectively. The direction of PA difference between CR and control was summarised using vote counting (ie, counting the positive, negative and non-significant results) and meta-analysis. RESULTS: Forty RCTs, (6480 patients: 5825 CHD, 655 HF) were included with 26% (38/145) PA results showing a statistically significant improvement in PA levels with CR compared with control. This pattern of results appeared consistent regardless of type of CR intervention (comprehensive vs exercise-only) or PA measurement (objective vs subjective). Meta-analysis showed PA increases in the metrics of steps/day (1423, 95% CI 757.07 to 2089.43, p<0.0001) and proportion of patients categorised as physically active (relative risk 1.55, 95% CI 1.19 to 2.02, p=0.001). The included trials were at high risk of bias, and the quality of the PA assessment and reporting was relatively poor. CONCLUSION: Overall, there is moderate evidence of an increase in PA with CR participation compared with control. High-quality trials are required, with robust PA measurement and data analysis methods, to assess if CR definitely leads to important improvements in PA

Factors associated with objectively assessed physical activity levels of heart failure patients

Aim: To determine the level of objectively measured moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in patients with heart failure (HF), and to assess the association between MVPA and patient sociodemographic, exercise capacity, and health status factors. Methods: Baseline MVPA data was available in 247 HF patients with 7-day wrist-worn accelerometry from two randomized controlled trials. Associations between MVPA and patient sociodemographic, exercise capacity, and health status factors were assessed using univariate and multivariable linear regression models. Results: 247 patients (28% female, mean age 71 ± 10 years) with HF with reduced ejection fraction (n=198) and preserved ejection fraction (n=49) were included in the analysis. Average MVPA was 283. 3 min/week and ranged widely from a minimum of 0 mins/week to maximum of 2626. 7 mins/week (standard deviation: 404. 1 mins/week). 111 (45%) of patients had a level of PA that met current guidelines of at least 150 minutes/week of MVPA. Multivariable regression showed patient’s age, body mass index, employment status, smoking status, New York Heart Association class, NT-proBNP and exercise capacity to be strongly associated (p&lt;0. 001) with the level of MVPA (p&lt;0. 001). Conclusion: Whilst 45% of HF patients had objectively measured levels of MVPA that met current PA recommendations, we observed a wide range in the level of MVPA across this patient sample. As a number of factors were found to be associated with MVPA our findings provide important information for future interventions aiming to increase MVPA in HF patients

Are cardiac rehabilitation pathways influenced by diabetes:A cohort study

BACKGROUND: Cardiac rehabilitation (CR) is recommended following acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Diabetes is a common long-term condition associated with ACS, and the inclusion of these patients in CR has been less studied. This study examines the referral, uptake, and completion rates in the CR pathway for ACS patients with and without diabetes to identify potential barriers in the CR pathway. METHODS: The study included patients aged 18 or above who were discharged after a diagnosis of ACS in the Central Denmark Region between 1 September 2017 and 31 August 2018. Diabetes information was obtained from three sources. Logistic regression models were used to examine the associations between having diabetes and the three outcomes: non-referral, non-uptake and non-completion. Results were reported as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: A total of 2447 patients were eligible for the study, of which 457 (18.7%) had diabetes. Only non-uptake was found to be significantly associated with diabetes after adjustment for prespecified variables (OR = 1.38, 95% CI 1.01-1.90). Associations for non-referral (OR = 1.11, 95% CI 0.87-1.41) and non-completion (OR = 1.06, 95 %CI 0.73-1.53) were not found to be statistically significant between ACS patients with diabetes and those without diabetes. CONCLUSION: This study highlights a significant disparity in the uptake of CR between patients with and without diabetes following ACS, demonstrating that patients with diabetes require early promotion and increased assistance to enrol in CR

Subsequent Event Risk in Individuals with Established Coronary Heart Disease:Design and Rationale of the GENIUS-CHD Consortium

BACKGROUND: The "GENetIcs of sUbSequent Coronary Heart Disease" (GENIUS-CHD) consortium was established to facilitate discovery and validation of genetic variants and biomarkers for risk of subsequent CHD events, in individuals with established CHD. METHODS: The consortium currently includes 57 studies from 18 countries, recruiting 185,614 participants with either acute coronary syndrome, stable CHD or a mixture of both at baseline. All studies collected biological samples and followed-up study participants prospectively for subsequent events. RESULTS: Enrollment into the individual studies took place between 1985 to present day with duration of follow up ranging from 9 months to 15 years. Within each study, participants with CHD are predominantly of self-reported European descent (38%-100%), mostly male (44%-91%) with mean ages at recruitment ranging from 40 to 75 years. Initial feasibility analyses, using a federated analysis approach, yielded expected associations between age (HR 1.15 95% CI 1.14-1.16) per 5-year increase, male sex (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.13-1.21) and smoking (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.35-1.51) with risk of subsequent CHD death or myocardial infarction, and differing associations with other individual and composite cardiovascular endpoints. CONCLUSIONS: GENIUS-CHD is a global collaboration seeking to elucidate genetic and non-genetic determinants of subsequent event risk in individuals with established CHD, in order to improve residual risk prediction and identify novel drug targets for secondary prevention. Initial analyses demonstrate the feasibility and reliability of a federated analysis approach. The consortium now plans to initiate and test novel hypotheses as well as supporting replication and validation analyses for other investigators

World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions

BACKGROUND: To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. METHODS: In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. FINDINGS: Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 (95% CI 0·629-0·741) to 0·833 (0·783-0·882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. INTERPRETATION: We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. FUNDING: World Health Organization, British Heart Foundation (BHF), BHF Cambridge Centre for Research Excellence, UK Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe