A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide : the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.Peer reviewe

Distribution of Major Health Risks: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study

BACKGROUND: Most analyses of risks to health focus on the total burden of their aggregate effects. The distribution of risk-factor-attributable disease burden, for example by age or exposure level, can inform the selection and targeting of specific interventions and programs, and increase cost-effectiveness. METHODS AND FINDINGS: For 26 selected risk factors, expert working groups conducted comprehensive reviews of data on risk-factor exposure and hazard for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world, by age and sex. Age-sex-subregion-population attributable fractions were estimated and applied to the mortality and burden of disease estimates from the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease database. Where possible, exposure levels were assessed as continuous measures, or as multiple categories. The proportion of risk-factor-attributable burden in different population subgroups, defined by age, sex, and exposure level, was estimated. For major cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, cholesterol, tobacco use, fruit and vegetable intake, body mass index, and physical inactivity) 43%–61% of attributable disease burden occurred between the ages of 15 and 59 y, and 87% of alcohol-attributable burden occurred in this age group. Most of the disease burden for continuous risks occurred in those with only moderately raised levels, not among those with levels above commonly used cut-points, such as those with hypertension or obesity. Of all disease burden attributable to being underweight during childhood, 55% occurred among children 1–3 standard deviations below the reference population median, and the remainder occurred among severely malnourished children, who were three or more standard deviations below median. CONCLUSIONS: Many major global risks are widely spread in a population, rather than restricted to a minority. Population-based strategies that seek to shift the whole distribution of risk factors often have the potential to produce substantial reductions in disease burden

Cross-Sectional Exploration of Plasma Biomarkers of Alzheimer's Disease in Down Syndrome: Early Data from the Longitudinal Investigation for Enhancing Down Syndrome Research (LIFE-DSR) Study

With improved healthcare, the Down syndrome (DS) population is both growing and aging rapidly. However, with longevity comes a very high risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD). The LIFE-DSR study (NCT04149197) is a longitudinal natural history study recruiting 270 adults with DS over the age of 25. The study is designed to characterize trajectories of change in DS-associated AD (DS-AD). The current study reports its cross-sectional analysis of the first 90 subjects enrolled. Plasma biomarkers phosphorylated tau protein (p-tau), neurofilament light chain (NfL), amyloid β peptides (Aβ1-40, Aβ1-42), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) were undertaken with previously published methods. The clinical data from the baseline visit include demographics as well as the cognitive measures under the Severe Impairment Battery (SIB) and Down Syndrome Mental Status Examination (DS-MSE). Biomarker distributions are described with strong statistical associations observed with participant age. The biomarker data contributes to understanding DS-AD across the spectrum of disease. Collectively, the biomarker data show evidence of DS-AD progression beginning at approximately 40 years of age. Exploring these data across the full LIFE-DSR longitudinal study population will be an important resource in understanding the onset, progression, and clinical profiles of DS-AD pathophysiology

Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density

Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals <1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data

Thigh-length compression stockings and DVT after stroke

Controversy exists as to whether neoadjuvant chemotherapy improves survival in patients with invasive bladder cancer, despite randomised controlled trials of more than 3000 patients. We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of such treatment on survival in patients with this disease

Learning to learn: advanced behavioural flexibility in a poison frog

Behavioural flexibility is essential for survival in a world with changing contingencies and its evolution is linked to complex physical and social environments. Serial reversal learning, in which reward contingencies change frequently, is a key indicator of behavioural flexibility. While many vertebrates are capable of serial reversal learning, only birds and mammals have previously been shown to use rule-based decision strategies (e.g. win-stay/lose-shift) to become better at learning changes in reward contingencies across reversals. While the lifestyles of many amphibians have a degree of complexity, the evidence to date suggests limited levels of behavioural flexibility. Here, we show that the poison frog Dendrobates auratus, which has evolved complex parental behaviours that likely depend on remembering locations in a flexible manner, can use a win-stay/lose-shift strategy to increase their behavioural flexibility across sequential changes in the reward contingencies in a visual discrimination task. Furthermore, probe trials demonstrate that the frogs used the provided visual cues to spatially orient in the maze in a manner reminiscent of complex spatial cognition. Our study provides the first evidence of serial reversal learning in frogs and is the first to demonstrate the use of a rule-based learning strategy in a nonavian, nonmammalian species