Evaluation of economic forecasts for Austria

In this paper, we evaluate macroeconomic forecasts for Austria and analyze the effects of external assumptions on forecast errors. We consider the growth rates of real GDP and the demand components as well as the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. The analyses are based on univariate measures like RMSE and Theil’s inequality coefficient and also on the Mahalanobis distance, a multivariate measure that takes the variances of and the correlations between the variables into account. We compare forecasts generated by the two leading Austrian economic research institutes, the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), and additionally consider the forecasts produced by the European Commission. The results indicate that there are no systematic differences between the forecasts of the two Austrian institutes, neither for the traditional measures nor for the Mahalanobis distance. Generally, forecasts become more accurate with a decreasing forecast horizon, as expected; they are unbiased for forecast horizons of less than a year considering traditional measures and for the shortest forecast horizon considering the Mahalanobis distance. Finally, we find that mistakes in external assumptions, in particular regarding EU GDP and the oil price, translate into forecast errors for GDP and inflation

Information defaults in repeated public good provision

We present an experiment that models a repeated public good provision setting where the policy maker or manager does not have perfect control over information flows. Rather, information seeking can be affected by changing the information default as well as the price of information. The default is one either with or without information about others’ contributions, and having information comes with a positive, zero or negative financial incentive. When information comes without a financial incentive or even is financially beneficial, almost all subjects choose to have the information, but around a third have the information even when this is costly. Moreover, a default of not having information about the others’ contributions leads to a slower unravelling of cooperation, independent of the financial incentives of having information. This slower unravelling is explained by the beliefs about others’ contributions in these treatments. A secondary informational default effect appears to take place. When the default is no information, subjects do not seek information more often but, conditional on financial incentives, they tend to believe that more other subjects seek information

Recovery of the Austrian economy following the COVID-19 crisis can take up to three years

The scenario analysis carried out using the IIASA simulation model for the Austrian economy concludes that it may take up to three years until the economy recovers from the shock caused by the shutdown measures and returns to the growth path it had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. For 2020, the model simulations predict a 4% fall in GDP for a shutdown until mid-May, which would be as high as 6% if the shutdown were to last until mid-June. In spite of strong recovery dynamics, with increases in the GDP growth rates around two percentage points above benchmark in the years 2021 and 2022, the GDP levels will remain below the pre-crisis trend within the scenario horizon, indicating lasting effects of the COVID-19 crisis in the medium-term

A feminist economics view on racialized, gendered, and classed effects of the COVID-19 crisis

From a European middle class perspective, autumn 2020 is looking more and more apocalyptic. New lockdowns are once again bringing a creaking halt to our 'life-as-we-know-it': Curfews, no leisure shopping, no fitness studio, no holiday flights, no bars and restaurants, no parties, no cultural events. Instead there is again home office and private seclusion, more big disappointments and psychological hardship. Still, it is remarkable how not everyone is affected in the same way, and it is worthwhile to try out an intersectional standpoint (as is practiced in feminist theory and gender studies) to see the cracks that have become visible as the COVID-19 crisis “weakens the foundations of […] interlocking systems of inequality and provides an opportunity for us to imagine feminist alternatives to the prevailing order” (Tobias Neely 2020)

Studierbarkeit und Studienzufriedenheit: Zusatzbericht der Studierenden-Sozialerhebung 2019

Studierende sollen in ihrem Studium Rahmenbedingungen vorfinden, die einen erfolgreichen Abschluss ermöglichen. Dazu können Hochschulen verschiedene Maßnahmen setzen. In diesem Zusammenhang werden zahlreiche hochschulische Aktivitäten unter dem Begriff der Studierbarkeit subsummiert. Dieser ist vielschichtig und wird in der hochschulpolitischen Debatte sehr unterschiedlich verwendet. Im vorliegenden Bericht wird das Begriffsverständnis im Rahmen der Studierenden-Sozialerhebung dargestellt und auch grafisch in einer Übersicht zusammengefasst. Dieser Zusatzbericht basiert auf der Studierenden-Sozialerhebung 2019. Für die Erhebung wurden im Sommersemester 2019 Studierende an allen öffentlichen und privaten Universitäten, Fachhochschulen sowie Pädagogischen Hochschulen mittels eines Online-Fragebogens befragt. Das angewandte Konzept von Studierbarkeit umfasst strukturelle Maßnahmenbereiche, aber auch individuelle Aspekte der Studierenden

Nudge for Good? Choice Defaults and Spillover Effects

Policy makers increasingly use choice defaults to promote “good” causes by influencing socially relevant decisions in desirable ways, e.g., to increase pro-environmental choices or pro-social behavior in general. Such default nudges are remarkably successful when judged by their effects on the targeted behaviors in isolation. However, there is scant knowledge about possible spillover effects of pro-social behavior that was induced by defaults on subsequent related choices. Behavioral spillover effects could eliminate or even reverse the initially positive effects of choice defaults, and it is thus important to study their significance. We report results from a laboratory experiment exploring the subsequent behavioral consequences of pro-social choice defaults. Our results are promising: Pro-social behavior induced by choice defaults does not result in adverse spillover effects on later, subsequent behavior. This finding holds for both weak and strong choice defaults

The Determinants of Economic Competitiveness

This paper aims at identifying relevant indicators for TFP growth in EU countries during the recovery phase following the 2008/09 economic crisis. We proceed in three steps: First, we estimate TFP growth by means of Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). Second, we perform a TFP growth decomposition in order to get measures for changes in technical progress (CTP), technical efficiency (CTE), scale efficiency (CSC) and allocative efficiency (CAE). And third, we use BART – a non-parametric Bayesian technique from the realm of statistical learning – in order to identify relevant predictors of TFP and its components from the Global Competitiveness Reports. We find that only a few indicators prove to be stable predictors. In particular, indicators that characterize technological readiness, such as broadband internet access, are outstandingly important in order to push technical progress while issues that describe innovation seem only to speed up CTP in higher-income economies. The results presented in this paper can be guidelines to policymakers as they identify areas in which further action could be taken in order to increase economic growth. Concerning the bigger picture, it becomes obvious that advanced machine learning techniques might not be able to replace sound economic theory but they help separating the wheat from the chaff when it comes to selecting the most relevant indicators of economic competitiveness

Vienna Healthcare Lectures 2019: PatientInnen im Mittelpunkt – Wege zu mehr BürgerInnennähe und PatientInnenzentrierung in der Versorgung; Kurzbericht

Im Rahmen einer mehrtägigen Summer School, denVienna Healthcare Lectures 2019, wurde beleuchtet, welche Hemmnisse im österreichischen Gesundheitswesen in Bezug auf die Beteiligung von BürgerInnen, Versicherten und PatientInnen existieren und welche Impulse gesetzt werden könnten, um eine moderne und besser an den Wünschen der Bevölkerung orientierte Versorgung sicherzustellen