A Novel Patient-Specific Model for Predicting Severe Oliguria; Development and Comparison With Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes Acute Kidney Injury Classification

Objectives: The Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes urine output criteria for acute kidney injury lack specificity for identifying patients at risk of adverse renal outcomes. The objective was to develop a model that analyses hourly urine output values in real time to identify those at risk of developing severe oliguria. Design: This was a retrospective cohort study utilizing prospectively collected data. Setting: A cardiac ICU in the United Kingdom. Patients: Patients undergoing cardiac surgery between January 2013 and November 2017. Interventions: None. Measurement and Main Results: Patients were randomly assigned to development (n = 981) and validation (n = 2,389) datasets. A patient-specific, dynamic Bayesian model was developed to predict future urine output on an hourly basis. Model discrimination and calibration for predicting severe oliguria ( 0.8) were identified and their outcomes were compared with those for low-risk patients and for patients who met the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes urine output criterion for acute kidney injury. Model discrimination was excellent at all time points (area under the curve > 0.9 for all). Calibration of the model’s predictions was also excellent. After adjustment using multivariable logistic regression, patients in the high-risk group were more likely to require renal replacement therapy (odds ratio, 10.4; 95% CI, 5.9–18.1), suffer prolonged hospital stay (odds ratio, 4.4; 95% CI, 3.0–6.4), and die in hospital (odds ratio, 6.4; 95% CI, 2.8–14.0) (p < 0.001 for all). Outcomes for those identified as high risk by the model were significantly worse than for patients who met the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes urine output criterion. Conclusions: This novel, patient-specific model identifies patients at increased risk of severe oliguria. Classification according to model predictions outperformed the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes urine output criterion. As the new model identifies patients at risk before severe oliguria develops it could potentially facilitate intervention to improve patient outcomes

Speech Communication

Contains reports on five research projects.C.J. Lebel FellowshipNational Institutes of Health (Grant 5 T32 NSO7040)National Institutes of Health (Grant 5 R01 NS04332)National Institutes of Health (Grant 5 R01 NS21183)National Institutes of Health (Grant 5 P01 NS13126)National Institutes of Health (Grant 1 PO1-NS23734)National Science Foundation (Grant BNS 8418733)U.S. Navy - Naval Electronic Systems Command (Contract N00039-85-C-0254)U.S. Navy - Naval Electronic Systems Command (Contract N00039-85-C-0341)U.S. Navy - Naval Electronic Systems Command (Contract N00039-85-C-0290)National Institutes of Health (Grant RO1-NS21183), subcontract with Boston UniversityNational Institutes of Health (Grant 1 PO1-NS23734), subcontract with the Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmar

Speech Communication

Contains table of contents for Part IV, table of contents for Section 1 and reports on five research projects.Apple Computer, Inc.C.J. Lebel FellowshipNational Institutes of Health (Grant T32-NS07040)National Institutes of Health (Grant R01-NS04332)National Institutes of Health (Grant R01-NS21183)National Institutes of Health (Grant P01-NS23734)U.S. Navy / Naval Electronic Systems Command (Contract N00039-85-C-0254)U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research (Contract N00014-82-K-0727

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI &lt;18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school&#x2;aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI &lt;2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI &gt;2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

Status and Trends of Physical Activity Surveillance, Policy, and Research in 164 Countries: Findings From the Global Observatory for Physical Activity—GoPA! 2015 and 2020 Surveys

Background: Physical activity (PA) surveillance, policy, and research efforts need to be periodically appraised to gain insight into national and global capacities for PA promotion. The aim of this paper was to assess the status and trends in PA surveillance, policy, and research in 164 countries. Methods: We used data from the Global Observatory for Physical Activity (GoPA!) 2015 and 2020 surveys. Comprehensive searches were performed for each country to determine the level of development of their PA surveillance, policy, and research, and the findings were verified by the GoPA! Country Contacts. Trends were analyzed based on the data available for both survey years. Results: The global 5-year progress in all 3 indicators was modest, with most countries either improving or staying at the same level. PA surveillance, policy, and research improved or remained at a high level in 48.1%, 40.6%, and 42.1% of the countries, respectively. PA surveillance, policy, and research scores decreased or remained at a low level in 8.3%, 15.8%, and 28.6% of the countries, respectively. The highest capacity for PA promotion was found in Europe, the lowest in Africa and low- and lower-middle-income countries. Although a large percentage of the world’s population benefit from at least some PA policy, surveillance, and research efforts in their countries, 49.6 million people are without PA surveillance, 629.4 million people are without PA policy, and 108.7 million live in countries without any PA research output. A total of 6.3 billion people or 88.2% of the world’s population live in countries where PA promotion capacity should be significantly improved. Conclusion: Despite PA is essential for health, there are large inequalities between countries and world regions in their capacity to promote PA. Coordinated efforts are needed to reduce the inequalities and improve the global capacity for PA promotion

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions

The KDIGO acute kidney injury guidelines for cardiac surgery patients in critical care: a validation study

Background The Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) guidelines assign the same stage of AKI to patients whether they fulfil urine output criteria, serum creatinine criteria or both criteria for that stage. This study explores the validity of the KDIGO guidelines as a tool to stratify the risk of adverse outcomes in cardiac surgery patients. Methods Prospective data from consecutive adult patients admitted to the cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) following cardiac surgery between January 2013 and May 2015 were analysed. Patients were assigned to groups based on the criteria they met for each stage of AKI according to the KDIGO guidelines. Short and mid-term outcomes were compared between these groups. Results A total of 2267 patients were included with 772 meeting criteria for AKI-1 and 222 meeting criteria for AKI-2. After multivariable adjustment, patients meeting both urine output and creatinine criteria for AKI-1 were more likely to experience prolonged CICU stay (OR 4.9, 95%CI 3.3–7.4, p < 0.01) and more likely to require renal replacement therapy (OR 10.5, 95%CI 5.5–21.9, p < 0.01) than those meeting only the AKI-1 urine output criterion. Patients meeting both urine output and creatinine criteria for AKI-1 were at an increased risk of mid-term mortality compared to those diagnosed with AKI-1 by urine output alone (HR 2.8, 95%CI 1.6–4.8, p < 0.01). Patients meeting both urine output and creatinine criteria for AKI-2 were more likely to experience prolonged CICU stay (OR 16.0, 95%CI 3.2–292.0, p < 0.01) or require RRT (OR 11.0, 95%CI 4.2–30.9, p < 0.01) than those meeting only the urine output criterion. Patients meeting both urine output and creatinine criteria for AKI-2 were at a significantly increased risk of mid-term mortality compared to those diagnosed with AKI-2 by urine output alone (HR 3.6, 95%CI 1.4–9.3, p < 0.01). Conclusions Patients diagnosed with the same stage of AKI by different KDIGO criteria following cardiac surgery have significantly different short and mid-term outcomes. The KDIGO criteria need to be revisited before they can be used to stratify reliably the severity of AKI in cardiac surgery patients. The utility of the criteria also needs to be explored in other settings