Non-communicable diseases deaths attributable to high body mass index in Chile

We estimated the proportion and number of deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCD) attributable to high body mass index (BMI) in Chile in 2018. We used data from 5927 adults from a 2016–2017 Chilean National Health Survey to describe the distribution of BMI. We obtained the number of deaths from NCD from the Ministry of Health. Relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals per 5 units higher BMI for cardiovascular disease, cancer, and respiratory disease were retrieved from the Global BMI Mortality Collaboration meta-analyses. The prevalences of overweight and obesity were 38.9% and 39.1%, respectively. We estimated that reducing population-wide BMI to a theoretical minimum risk exposure level (mean BMI: 22.0 kg/m2; standard deviation: 1) could prevent approximately 21,977 deaths per year (95%CI 13,981–29,928). These deaths represented about 31.6% of major NCD deaths (20.1–43.1) and 20.4% of all deaths (12.9–27.7) that occurred in 2018. Most of these preventable deaths were from cardiovascular diseases (11,474 deaths; 95% CI 7302–15,621), followed by cancer (5597 deaths; 95% CI 3560–7622) and respiratory disease (4906 deaths; 95% CI 3119–6684). A substantial burden of NCD deaths was attributable to high BMI in Chile. Policies and population-wide interventions are needed to reduce the burden of NCD due to high BMI in Chile

Plasma Lead Concentration and Risk of Late Kidney Allograft Failure:Findings From the TransplantLines Biobank and Cohort Studies

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Heavy metals are known to induce kidney damage and recent studies have linked minor exposures to cadmium and arsenic with increased risk of kidney allograft failure, yet the potential association of lead (Pb) with late graft failure in kidney transplant recipients (KTR) remains unknown. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study in the Netherlands. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: We studied outpatient KTR (n=670) with a functioning graft for ≥1 year recruited at a university setting (2008-2011, NCT02811835) and followed, on average, for 4.9 (IQR, 3.4‒5.5) years. Additionally, end-stage kidney disease patients (n=46) enrolled in the ongoing TransplantLines Cohort and Biobank Study (2016-2017, NCT03272841) were studied at admission for transplantation and at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after transplantation. EXPOSURE: Plasma Pb was log2 transformed to estimate the association with outcomes per doubling of plasma Pb concentration and also considered categorically as tertiles of the Pb distribution. OUTCOME: Kidney graft failure (restart of dialysis or re-transplantation) with the competing event of death with a functioning graft. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Multivariable-adjusted cause-specific hazards models where follow-up of KTR who died with a functioning graft was censored. RESULTS: Median baseline plasma Pb was 0.31 (IQR, 0.22─0.45) μg/L among all KTRs. During follow-up, 78 (12%) KTR developed graft failure. Higher plasma Pb was associated with increased risk of graft failure (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.14‒2.21 per doubling; P=0.006) independent of age, sex, transplant characteristics, eGFR, proteinuria, smoking status, alcohol intake, and plasma concentrations of cadmium and arsenic. These findings remained materially unchanged after additional adjustment for dietary intake and were consistent with those of analyses examining Pb categorically. In serial measurements, plasma Pb was significantly higher at admission for transplantation than at 3-months post-transplant (P=0.001), after which it remained stable over 2 years of follow-up (P=0.2). LIMITATIONS: Observational study design. CONCLUSIONS: Pretransplant plasma Pb concentrations, which fall after transplantation, are associated with increased risk of late kidney allograft failure. These findings warrant further studies to evaluate whether preventive or therapeutic interventions to decrease plasma Pb may represent novel risk-management strategies to decrease the rate of kidney allograft failure

Circulating Arsenic is Associated with Long-Term Risk of Graft Failure in Kidney Transplant Recipients:A Prospective Cohort Study

Arsenic is toxic to many organ systems, the kidney being the most sensitive target organ. We aimed to investigate whether, in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs), the nephrotoxic exposure to arsenic could represent an overlooked hazard for graft survival. We performed a prospective cohort study of 665 KTRs with a functional graft >= 1 year, recruited in a university setting (20082011), in The Netherlands. Plasma arsenic was measured by ICP-MS, and dietary intake was comprehensively assessed using a validated 177-item food-frequency questionnaire. The endpoint graft failure was defined as restart of dialysis or re-transplantation. Median arsenic concentration was 1.26 (IQR, 1.042.04) mu g/L. In backwards linear regression analyses we found that fish consumption (std beta = 0.26; p < 0.001) was the major independent determinant of plasma arsenic. During 5 years of follow-up, 72 KTRs developed graft failure. In Cox proportional-hazards regression analyses, we found that arsenic was associated with increased risk of graft failure (HR 1.80; 95% CI 1.28-2.53; p = 0.001). This association remained materially unaltered after adjustment for donor and recipient characteristics, immunosuppressive therapy, eGFR, primary renal disease, and proteinuria. In conclusion, in KTRs, plasma arsenic is independently associated with increased risk of late graft failure.Top Institute Food and Nutrition of the Netherlands A-1003 Comision Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (CONICYT) F 7219011

Risk of Recurrent Helicobacter pylori Infection 1 Year After Initial Eradication Therapy in 7 Latin American Communities

The long-term effectiveness of Helicobacter pylori eradication programs for preventing gastric cancer will depend on recurrence risk and individual and community factors

14-day triple, 5-day concomitant, and 10-day sequential therapies for Helicobacter pylori infection in seven Latin American sites: a randomised trial

Evidence from Europe, Asia, and North America suggests that standard three-drug regimens of a proton pump inhibitor plus amoxicillin and clarithromycin are significantly less effective for eradicating Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection than five-day concomitant and ten-day sequential four-drug regimens that include a nitroimidazole. These four-drug regimens also entail fewer antibiotic doses and thus may be suitable for eradication programs in low-resource settings. Studies are limited from Latin America, however, where the burden of H. pylori-associated diseases is high

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: A comparative risk assessment

Background: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. Findings: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe