Predation thresholds for reintroduction of native avifauna following suppression of invasive Brown Treesnakes on Guam

The brown treesnake (BTS) (Boiga irregularis) invasion on Guåhan (in English, Guam) led to the extirpation of nearly all native forest birds. In recent years, methods have been developed to reduce BTS abundance on a landscape scale. To help assess the prospects for the successful reintroduction of native birds to Guåhan following BTS suppression, we modeled bird population persistence based on their life history characteristics and relative sensitivity to BTS predation. We constructed individual-based models and simulated BTS predation in hypothetical founding populations for each of seven candidate bird species. We represented BTS predation risk in two steps: risk of being encountered and risk of mortality if encountered. We link encounter risk from the bird’s perspective to snake contact rates at camera traps with live animal lures, the most direct practical means of estimating BTS predation risk. Our simulations support the well-documented fact that Guåhan’s birds cannot persist with an uncontrolled population of BTS but do indicate that bird persistence in Guåhan’s forests is possible with suppression short of total eradication. We estimate threshold BTS contact rates would need to be below 0.0002–0.0006 snake contacts per bird per night for these birds to persist on the landscape, which translates to an annual encounter probability of 0.07–0.20. We simulated the effects of snake-proof nest boxes for Sihek (Todiramphus cinnamominus) and Såli (Aplonis opaca), but the benefits were small relative to the overall variation in contact rate thresholds among species. This variation among focal bird species in sustainable predation levels can be used to prioritize species for reintroduction in a BTS-suppressed landscape, but variation among these species is narrow relative to the required reduction from current BTS levels, which may be four orders of magnitude higher (\u3e0.18). Our modeling indicates that the required predation thresholds may need to be lower than have yet been demonstrated with current BTS management. Our predation threshold metric provides an important management tool to help estimate target BTS suppression levels that can be used to determine when bird reintroduction campaigns might begin and serves as a model for other systems to match predator control with reintroduction efforts

2017 HRS/EHRA/ECAS/APHRS/SOLAECE expert consensus statement on catheter and surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation: executive summary.

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2017 HRS/EHRA/ECAS/APHRS/SOLAECE expert consensus statement on catheter and surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation: executive summary.

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withdrawn 2017 hrs ehra ecas aphrs solaece expert consensus statement on catheter and surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation

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Leafwing Population Dynamics (Genus Anaea, Lepidoptera; Nymphalidae) and Viability of the Endangered Florida Leafwing

Butterfly populations are in decline in Florida. An example is the Florida leafwing, Anaea troglodyta floridalis (Nymphalidae), a species endemic to the pine rocklands in South Florida. I used a variety of approaches to investigate the population dynamics of leafwing butterflies, including two widespread congeners, A. aidea and A. andria. This dissertation describes two population models, one that evaluated the extinction risk and sensitivity of A. t. floridalis to disturbances such as fire, and the other evaluated the sensitivity of annual population dynamics in response to seasonal life history. Using demographic data from field surveys and laboratory experiments, my work described the life cycle of individuals from egg to caterpillar, and through metamorphosis and adulthood as butterflies. The models I built represented the life cycle at multiple time scales, e.g., within seasons, between seasons within a year, and between years. Per capita predation and temperature were important within season factors affecting the survival and growth rates, respectively, of juveniles. Between seasons, the periodic stage-structured matrix model I built predicted that natural selection should favor individuals with high survival in the winter, and high reproductive output during the breeding season, a prediction that explains the differences between seasonally-dependent morphological forms of adult leafwing. Important for between year variation, I demonstrated the positive effect of fire, which decreased extinction risk and is necessary to maintain the pine rockland ecosystem endemic to South Florida. For the first time, my work integrated the entire butterfly life cycle through all seasons within an annual cycle

R data of individual-based model projections for sexually produced offspring

Section IV of the metadata HTML file

The reproductive coefficients

The reproductive coefficients csv file that is loaded in section 1 of the HTML file

Distilling Professional Opinion to Gauge Vulnerability of Guam Avifauna to Brown Treesnake Predation

The avifauna of Guam was devastated by the introduction of the Brown Treesnake, and the restoration of native birds would need to address the problem with eradication or suppression of BTS. With eradication of the snake unlikely in the near term, and suppression capabilities limited to specific finite areas, key information for reintroductions is how low BTS abundance will likely need to be for each bird species to be re-established based on their vulnerability to BTS predation. Here, we estimate vulnerability, which can no longer be measured directly, so biologists who are familiar with one or more of seven Guam birds were surveyed to obtain their knowledge and produce quantitative vulnerability estimates. As is typical of birds adapted to islands devoid of predators, respondents judged that our focal species exhibit few predator avoidance and tolerance traits, leaving body size as the prime determinant of vulnerability. Respondent opinion also holds that any behavior that reduces the likelihood of an encounter by BTS, e.g., roosting/nesting in palm crowns, cavity nesting, and in particular urban dwelling, substantially reduces vulnerability. Our results can help inform species-specific decisions about when it may be safe to consider the release of birds on Guam depending on the relative vulnerability of each species to predation by BTS