Empirical testing for bubbles during the inter-war European hyperinflations

In this thesis, I undertake an empirical search for the existence of price and exchange rate bubbles during the inter-war European hyperinflations of Germany, Hungary and Poland. Since the choice of an appropriate policy to control inflation depends upon the true nature of the underlying process generating the inflation, the existence or non-existence of inflationary bubbles has important policy implications. If bubbles do exist, positive action will be required to counter the public's self-fulfilling expectation of a price surge. Hyperinflationary episodes have been chosen as my case study because of the dominant role that such expectations play in price determination. In the literature, there are frequently expressed concerns about empirical research into bubbles. The existence of model misspecification and the nonlinear dynamics in the fundamentals under conditions of regime switching may lead to spurious conclusions concerning the existence of bubbles. Furthermore, some stochastic bubbles may display different collapsing properties and consequently appear to be linearly stationary. Thus, the evidence against the existence of bubbles may not be reliable. In my thesis, I attempt to tackle the above empirical problems of testing for the existence of bubbles using advances in testing procedures and methodologies. Since the number of bubble solutions is infinite in the rational expectations framework, I adopt indirect tests, rather than direct tests, for the empirical study. From the findings of my empirical research, the evidence for stationary specification errors and the nonlinearity of the data series cannot be rejected, but the evidence for the existence of price and exchange rate bubbles is rejected for all the countries under study. It leads to the conclusion that the control of the inter-war European hyperinflations was attributable to control of the fundamental processes, since the dynamics of prices and exchange rates for these countries might not be driven by self-fulfilling expectations

Review on efficiency and anomalies in stock markets

The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is one of the most important economic and financial hypotheses that have been tested over the past century. Due to many abnormal phenomena and conflicting evidence, otherwise known as anomalies against EMH, some academics have questioned whether EMH is valid, and pointed out that the financial literature has substantial evidence of anomalies, so that many theories have been developed to explain some anomalies. To address the issue, this paper reviews the theory and literature on market efficiency and market anomalies. We give a brief review on market efficiency and clearly define the concept of market efficiency and the EMH. We discuss some efforts that challenge the EMH. We review different market anomalies and different theories of Behavioral Finance that could be used to explain such market anomalies. This review is useful to academics for developing cutting-edge treatments of financial theory that EMH, anomalies, and Behavioral Finance underlie. The review is also beneficial to investors for making choices of investment products and strategies that suit their risk preferences and behavioral traits predicted

Empirical Study on Conservative and Representative Heuristics of Hong Kong Small Investors Adopting Momentum and Contrarian Trading Strategies

Recently, a new Bayesian approach has been developed to explain some market anomalies. In this paper, we conduct a questionnaire survey to examine whether the theory holds empirically by studying the conservative and representative heuristics by Hong Kong small investors who adopt momentum and/or contrarian trading strategies. In addition, our study provides evidence for the small investors on their time horizon and risk tolerance when facing uncertainty in their investments. Our findings are useful to small investors in their investment decision making and useful to financial advisors in providing service to small investors

Nearly-room-temperature ferromagnetism and tunable anomalous Hall effect in atomically thin Fe4CoGeTe2

Itinerant ferromagnetism at room temperature is a key ingredient for spin transport and manipulation. Here, we report the realization of nearly-room-temperature itinerant ferromagnetism in Co doped Fe5GeTe2 thin flakes. The ferromagnetic transition temperature TC (323 K - 337 K) is almost unchanged when thickness is down to 12 nm and is still about 284 K at 2 nm (bilayer thickness). Theoretical calculations further indicate that the ferromagnetism persists in monolayer Fe4CoGeTe2. In addition to the robust ferromagnetism down to the ultrathin limit, Fe4CoGeTe2 exhibits an unusual temperature- and thickness-dependent intrinsic anomalous Hall effect. We propose that it could be ascribed to the dependence of band structure on thickness that changes the Berry curvature near the Fermi energy level subtly. The nearly-room-temperature ferromagnetism and tunable anomalous Hall effect in atomically thin Fe4CoGeTe2 provide opportunities to understand the exotic transport properties of two-dimensional van der Waals magnetic materials and explore their potential applications in spintronics.Comment: 28 pages, 4 figures, 1 tabl

The ID1-CULLIN3 Axis Regulates Intracellular SHH and WNT Signaling in Glioblastoma Stem Cells

SummaryInhibitor of differentiation 1 (ID1) is highly expressed in glioblastoma stem cells (GSCs). However, the regulatory mechanism responsible for its role in GSCs is poorly understood. Here, we report that ID1 activates GSC proliferation, self-renewal, and tumorigenicity by suppressing CULLIN3 ubiquitin ligase. ID1 induces cell proliferation through increase of CYCLIN E, a target molecule of CULLIN3. ID1 overexpression or CULLIN3 knockdown confers GSC features and tumorigenicity to murine Ink4a/Arf-deficient astrocytes. Proteomics analysis revealed that CULLIN3 interacts with GLI2 and DVL2 and induces their degradation via ubiquitination. Consistent with ID1 knockdown or CULLIN3 overexpression in human GSCs, pharmacologically combined control of GLI2 and β-CATENIN effectively diminishes GSC properties. A ID1-high/CULLIN3-low expression signature correlates with a poor patient prognosis, supporting the clinical relevance of this signaling axis. Taken together, a loss of CULLIN3 represents a common signaling node for controlling the activity of intracellular WNT and SHH signaling pathways mediated by ID1

The Spill-Over Impact of the Novel Coronavirus-19 Pandemic on Medical Care and Disease Outcomes in Non-communicable Diseases: A Narrative Review

OBJECTIVES: The coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) pandemic has claimed more than 5 million lives worldwide by November 2021. Implementation of lockdown measures, reallocation of medical resources, compounded by the reluctance to seek help, makes it exceptionally challenging for people with non-communicable diseases (NCD) to manage their diseases. This review evaluates the spill-over impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on people with NCDs including cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes mellitus, chronic respiratory disease, chronic kidney disease, dementia, mental health disorders, and musculoskeletal disorders. METHODS: Literature published in English was identified from PubMed and medRxiv from January 1, 2019 to November 30, 2020. A total of 119 articles were selected from 6,546 publications found. RESULTS: The reduction of in-person care, screening procedures, delays in diagnosis, treatment, and social distancing policies have unanimously led to undesirable impacts on both physical and psychological health of NCD patients. This is projected to contribute to more excess deaths in the future. CONCLUSION: The spill-over impact of COVID-19 on patients with NCD is just beginning to unravel, extra efforts must be taken for planning the resumption of NCD healthcare services post-pandemic

Regulating STING in health and disease.

The presence of cytosolic double-stranded DNA molecules can trigger multiple innate immune signalling pathways which converge on the activation of an ER-resident innate immune adaptor named "STimulator of INterferon Genes (STING)". STING has been found to mediate type I interferon response downstream of cyclic dinucleotides and a number of DNA and RNA inducing signalling pathway. In addition to its physiological function, a rapidly increasing body of literature highlights the role for STING in human disease where variants of the STING proteins, as well as dysregulated STING signalling, have been implicated in a number of inflammatory diseases. This review will summarise the recent structural and functional findings of STING, and discuss how STING research has promoted the development of novel therapeutic approaches and experimental tools to improve treatment of tumour and autoimmune diseases

Atrasentan and renal events in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease (SONAR): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

Background: Short-term treatment for people with type 2 diabetes using a low dose of the selective endothelin A receptor antagonist atrasentan reduces albuminuria without causing significant sodium retention. We report the long-term effects of treatment with atrasentan on major renal outcomes. Methods: We did this double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial at 689 sites in 41 countries. We enrolled adults aged 18–85 years with type 2 diabetes, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)25–75 mL/min per 1·73 m 2 of body surface area, and a urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR)of 300–5000 mg/g who had received maximum labelled or tolerated renin–angiotensin system inhibition for at least 4 weeks. Participants were given atrasentan 0·75 mg orally daily during an enrichment period before random group assignment. Those with a UACR decrease of at least 30% with no substantial fluid retention during the enrichment period (responders)were included in the double-blind treatment period. Responders were randomly assigned to receive either atrasentan 0·75 mg orally daily or placebo. All patients and investigators were masked to treatment assignment. The primary endpoint was a composite of doubling of serum creatinine (sustained for ≥30 days)or end-stage kidney disease (eGFR <15 mL/min per 1·73 m 2 sustained for ≥90 days, chronic dialysis for ≥90 days, kidney transplantation, or death from kidney failure)in the intention-to-treat population of all responders. Safety was assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of their assigned study treatment. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01858532. Findings: Between May 17, 2013, and July 13, 2017, 11 087 patients were screened; 5117 entered the enrichment period, and 4711 completed the enrichment period. Of these, 2648 patients were responders and were randomly assigned to the atrasentan group (n=1325)or placebo group (n=1323). Median follow-up was 2·2 years (IQR 1·4–2·9). 79 (6·0%)of 1325 patients in the atrasentan group and 105 (7·9%)of 1323 in the placebo group had a primary composite renal endpoint event (hazard ratio [HR]0·65 [95% CI 0·49–0·88]; p=0·0047). Fluid retention and anaemia adverse events, which have been previously attributed to endothelin receptor antagonists, were more frequent in the atrasentan group than in the placebo group. Hospital admission for heart failure occurred in 47 (3·5%)of 1325 patients in the atrasentan group and 34 (2·6%)of 1323 patients in the placebo group (HR 1·33 [95% CI 0·85–2·07]; p=0·208). 58 (4·4%)patients in the atrasentan group and 52 (3·9%)in the placebo group died (HR 1·09 [95% CI 0·75–1·59]; p=0·65). Interpretation: Atrasentan reduced the risk of renal events in patients with diabetes and chronic kidney disease who were selected to optimise efficacy and safety. These data support a potential role for selective endothelin receptor antagonists in protecting renal function in patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk of developing end-stage kidney disease. Funding: AbbVie

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Large expert-curated database for benchmarking document similarity detection in biomedical literature search

Document recommendation systems for locating relevant literature have mostly relied on methods developed a decade ago. This is largely due to the lack of a large offline gold-standard benchmark of relevant documents that cover a variety of research fields such that newly developed literature search techniques can be compared, improved and translated into practice. To overcome this bottleneck, we have established the RElevant LIterature SearcH consortium consisting of more than 1500 scientists from 84 countries, who have collectively annotated the relevance of over 180 000 PubMed-listed articles with regard to their respective seed (input) article/s. The majority of annotations were contributed by highly experienced, original authors of the seed articles. The collected data cover 76% of all unique PubMed Medical Subject Headings descriptors. No systematic biases were observed across different experience levels, research fields or time spent on annotations. More importantly, annotations of the same document pairs contributed by different scientists were highly concordant. We further show that the three representative baseline methods used to generate recommended articles for evaluation (Okapi Best Matching 25, Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency and PubMed Related Articles) had similar overall performances. Additionally, we found that these methods each tend to produce distinct collections of recommended articles, suggesting that a hybrid method may be required to completely capture all relevant articles. The established database server located at https://relishdb.ict.griffith.edu.au is freely available for the downloading of annotation data and the blind testing of new methods. We expect that this benchmark will be useful for stimulating the development of new powerful techniques for title and title/abstract-based search engines for relevant articles in biomedical research.Peer reviewe