Statistical physics of vaccination

Historically, infectious diseases caused considerable damage to human societies, and they continue to do so today. To help reduce their impact, mathematical models of disease transmission have been studied to help understand disease dynamics and inform prevention strategies. Vaccination–one of the most important preventive measures of modern times–is of great interest both theoretically and empirically. And in contrast to traditional approaches, recent research increasingly explores the pivotal implications of individual behavior and heterogeneous contact patterns in populations. Our report reviews the developmental arc of theoretical epidemiology with emphasis on vaccination, as it led from classical models assuming homogeneously mixing (mean-field) populations and ignoring human behavior, to recent models that account for behavioral feedback and/or population spatial/social structure. Many of the methods used originated in statistical physics, such as lattice and network models, and their associated analytical frameworks. Similarly, the feedback loop between vaccinating behavior and disease propagation forms a coupled nonlinear system with analogs in physics. We also review the new paradigm of digital epidemiology, wherein sources of digital data such as online social media are mined for high-resolution information on epidemiologically relevant individual behavior. Armed with the tools and concepts of statistical physics, and further assisted by new sources of digital data, models that capture nonlinear interactions between behavior and disease dynamics offer a novel way of modeling real-world phenomena, and can help improve health outcomes. We conclude the review by discussing open problems in the field and promising directions for future research

Measles elimination: progress, challenges and implications for rubella control.

Measles and rubella are major vaccine-preventable causes of child mortality and disability. They have been eliminated from the Americas and some other regions have also come close to elimination. In this paper, we review regional progress toward measles and rubella control/elimination goals, describe the recent epidemiology of these infections and discuss challenges to achieving the goals. Globally, measles vaccination is estimated to prevent nearly 2 million deaths each year. Despite this remarkable progress, large measles outbreaks have occurred in recent years, often involving older persons who were not vaccinated in earlier years. Such an occurrence would be particularly damaging for rubella control programmes as it could lead to peaks in congenital rubella syndrome. Challenges to achieving and sustaining high vaccination coverage include civil conflict, weak health systems, geographic, cultural and economic barriers to reaching certain population groups and inadequate monitoring and use of data for action. Countries and regions aiming to eliminate measles and control rubella urgently need to improve the implementation and monitoring of both routine and mass vaccination campaign strategies

Landscape analysis of interactions between nutrition and vaccine responses in children.

The world's poorest children are likely to be malnourished when receiving their childhood vaccines. It is uncertain whether this affects vaccine efficacy and whether the coadministration of nutrient supplements with vaccines has beneficial or detrimental effects. More recently, a detrimental interaction between vitamin A (VA) supplementation (VAS) and the killed diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine given in early childhood has been suggested. This report provides a critical review of the published interactions between nutritional status and/or supplementation and vaccine responses in children. Due to an absence of evidence for most nutrients, this analysis focused on protein-energy, vitamins A and D, and iron and zinc. All vaccines were considered. Both observational studies and clinical trials that led to peer-reviewed publications in English or French were included. These criteria led to a pool of 58 studies for protein-energy malnutrition, 43 for VA, 4 for vitamin D, 10 for iron, and 22 for zinc. Our analysis indicates that malnutrition has surprisingly little or no effect on vaccine responses. Evidence for definitive adjunctive effects of micronutrient supplementation at the time of vaccination is also weak. Overall, the paucity, poor quality, and heterogeneity of data make it difficult to draw firm conclusions. The use of simple endpoints that may not correlate strongly with disease protection adds uncertainty. A detailed examination of the immunological mechanisms involved in potential interactions, employing modern methodologies, is therefore required. This would also help us understand the proposed, but still unproven, negative interactions between VAS and vaccine safety, a resolution of which is urgently required