Querying Probabilistic Neighborhoods in Spatial Data Sets Efficiently

$\newcommand{\dist}{\operatorname{dist}}$ In this paper we define the notion of a probabilistic neighborhood in spatial data: Let a set $P$ of $n$ points in $\mathbb{R}^d$, a query point $q \in \mathbb{R}^d$, a distance metric \dist, and a monotonically decreasing function $f : \mathbb{R}^+ \rightarrow [0,1]$ be given. Then a point $p \in P$ belongs to the probabilistic neighborhood $N(q, f)$ of $q$ with respect to $f$ with probability f(\dist(p,q)). We envision applications in facility location, sensor networks, and other scenarios where a connection between two entities becomes less likely with increasing distance. A straightforward query algorithm would determine a probabilistic neighborhood in $\Theta(n\cdot d)$ time by probing each point in $P$. To answer the query in sublinear time for the planar case, we augment a quadtree suitably and design a corresponding query algorithm. Our theoretical analysis shows that -- for certain distributions of planar $P$ -- our algorithm answers a query in $O((|N(q,f)| + \sqrt{n})\log n)$ time with high probability (whp). This matches up to a logarithmic factor the cost induced by quadtree-based algorithms for deterministic queries and is asymptotically faster than the straightforward approach whenever $|N(q,f)| \in o(n / \log n)$. As practical proofs of concept we use two applications, one in the Euclidean and one in the hyperbolic plane. In particular, our results yield the first generator for random hyperbolic graphs with arbitrary temperatures in subquadratic time. Moreover, our experimental data show the usefulness of our algorithm even if the point distribution is unknown or not uniform: The running time savings over the pairwise probing approach constitute at least one order of magnitude already for a modest number of points and queries.Comment: The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-44543-4_3

Efficient Immunization Strategies for Computer Networks and Populations

We present an effective immunization strategy for computer networks and populations with broad and, in particular, scale-free degree distributions. The proposed strategy, acquaintance immunization, calls for the immunization of random acquaintances of random nodes (individuals). The strategy requires no knowledge of the node degrees or any other global knowledge, as do targeted immunization strategies. We study analytically the critical threshold for complete immunization. We also study the strategy with respect to the susceptible-infected-removed epidemiological model. We show that the immunization threshold is dramatically reduced with the suggested strategy, for all studied cases.Comment: Revtex, 5 pages, 4 ps fig

A Simple Model of Epidemics with Pathogen Mutation

We study how the interplay between the memory immune response and pathogen mutation affects epidemic dynamics in two related models. The first explicitly models pathogen mutation and individual memory immune responses, with contacted individuals becoming infected only if they are exposed to strains that are significantly different from other strains in their memory repertoire. The second model is a reduction of the first to a system of difference equations. In this case, individuals spend a fixed amount of time in a generalized immune class. In both models, we observe four fundamentally different types of behavior, depending on parameters: (1) pathogen extinction due to lack of contact between individuals, (2) endemic infection (3) periodic epidemic outbreaks, and (4) one or more outbreaks followed by extinction of the epidemic due to extremely low minima in the oscillations. We analyze both models to determine the location of each transition. Our main result is that pathogens in highly connected populations must mutate rapidly in order to remain viable.Comment: 9 pages, 11 figure

Arrival Time Statistics in Global Disease Spread

Metapopulation models describing cities with different populations coupled by the travel of individuals are of great importance in the understanding of disease spread on a large scale. An important example is the Rvachev-Longini model [{\it Math. Biosci.} {\bf 75}, 3-22 (1985)] which is widely used in computational epidemiology. Few analytical results are however available and in particular little is known about paths followed by epidemics and disease arrival times. We study the arrival time of a disease in a city as a function of the starting seed of the epidemics. We propose an analytical Ansatz, test it in the case of a spreading on the world wide air transportation network, and show that it predicts accurately the arrival order of a disease in world-wide cities

Immunization of networks with community structure

In this study, an efficient method to immunize modular networks (i.e., networks with community structure) is proposed. The immunization of networks aims at fragmenting networks into small parts with a small number of removed nodes. Its applications include prevention of epidemic spreading, intentional attacks on networks, and conservation of ecosystems. Although preferential immunization of hubs is efficient, good immunization strategies for modular networks have not been established. On the basis of an immunization strategy based on the eigenvector centrality, we develop an analytical framework for immunizing modular networks. To this end, we quantify the contribution of each node to the connectivity in a coarse-grained network among modules. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed method by applying it to model and real networks with modular structure.Comment: 3 figures, 1 tabl

Velocity and hierarchical spread of epidemic outbreaks in scale-free networks

We study the effect of the connectivity pattern of complex networks on the propagation dynamics of epidemics. The growth time scale of outbreaks is inversely proportional to the network degree fluctuations, signaling that epidemics spread almost instantaneously in networks with scale-free degree distributions. This feature is associated with an epidemic propagation that follows a precise hierarchical dynamics. Once the highly connected hubs are reached, the infection pervades the network in a progressive cascade across smaller degree classes. The present results are relevant for the development of adaptive containment strategies.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, final versio

Extinction and recurrence of multi-group SEIR epidemic

In this paper, we consider a class of multi-group SEIR epidemic models with stochastic perturbations. By the method of stochastic Lyapunov functions, we study their asymptotic behavior in terms of the intensity of the stochastic perturbations and the reproductive number R0R0. When the perturbations are sufficiently large, the exposed and infective components decay exponentially to zero whilst the susceptible components converge weakly to a class of explicit stationary distributions regardless of the magnitude of R0R0. An interesting result is that, if the perturbations are sufficiently small and R0≤1R0≤1, then the exposed, infective and susceptible components have similar behaviors, respectively, as in the case of large perturbations. When the perturbations are small and R0>1R0>1, we construct a new class of stochastic Lyapunov functions to show the ergodic property and the positive recurrence, and our results reveal some cycling phenomena of recurrent diseases. Computer simulations are carried out to illustrate our analytical results

Epidemic variability in complex networks

We study numerically the variability of the outbreak of diseases on complex networks. We use a SI model to simulate the disease spreading at short times, in homogeneous and in scale-free networks. In both cases, we study the effect of initial conditions on the epidemic's dynamics and its variability. The results display a time regime during which the prevalence exhibits a large sensitivity to noise. We also investigate the dependence of the infection time on nodes' degree and distance to the seed. In particular, we show that the infection time of hubs have large fluctuations which limit their reliability as early-detection stations. Finally, we discuss the effect of the multiplicity of shortest paths between two nodes on the infection time. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the existence of even longer paths reduces the average infection time. These different results could be of use for the design of time-dependent containment strategies

Migration induced epidemics: Dynamics of flux-based multipatch models

Classical disease models use a mass action term as the interaction between infected and susceptible people in separate patches. We derive the equations when this interaction is a migration of people between patches. The results model what happens when a new population is moved into a region with endemic disease.Comment: 25 page