A betting interpretation for probabilities and Dempster-Shafer degrees of belief

There are at least two ways to interpret numerical degrees of belief in terms of betting: (1) you can offer to bet at the odds defined by the degrees of belief, or (2) you can judge that a strategy for taking advantage of such betting offers will not multiply the capital it risks by a large factor. Both interpretations can be applied to ordinary additive probabilities and used to justify updating by conditioning. Only the second can be applied to Dempster-Shafer degrees of belief and used to justify Dempster's rule of combination.Comment: 20 page

I am a Yakhchal

A description of the history and function of a traditional Iranian ice house, known as a Yakhchal, as told through the eyes of one such ice house surviving into the present day

Publications ethics

The editor of any medical journal has to be aware of the ethical and legal framework within which medical research is conducted. When research and publications relate to children, then particularly high standards are required in the design, conduct, and reporting of research in order to protect the rights of children and their families. Authors have a number of duties and responsibilities that are mirrored by those of editors and publishers. Of particular importance are the principles of transparency and integrity. Authors should be explicit about who carried out the work and who funded the study. They should declare whether the work has been published before and is not being considered for publication elsewhere. The authors must protect the rights of research participants including their anonymity. Editors and publishers have a duty to ensure high editorial standards and efficient and effective peer review systems. They should follow ethical and responsible publication practices and should safeguard the intellectual property of the authors. This review discusses in detail the duties and responsibilities of authors, editors, and publishers in modern medical publishing

Emile Borel's difficult days in 1941

The German forces occupying Paris arrested Emile Borel and three other members of the Acad\'emie des Sciences in October 1941 and released them about five weeks later. Why? We examine some relevant German and French archives and other sources and propose some hypotheses. In the process, we review how the Occupation was structured and how it dealt with French higher education and some French mathematicians

A tutorial on conformal prediction

Conformal prediction uses past experience to determine precise levels of confidence in new predictions. Given an error probability $\epsilon$, together with a method that makes a prediction $\hat{y}$ of a label $y$, it produces a set of labels, typically containing $\hat{y}$, that also contains $y$ with probability $1-\epsilon$. Conformal prediction can be applied to any method for producing $\hat{y}$: a nearest-neighbor method, a support-vector machine, ridge regression, etc. Conformal prediction is designed for an on-line setting in which labels are predicted successively, each one being revealed before the next is predicted. The most novel and valuable feature of conformal prediction is that if the successive examples are sampled independently from the same distribution, then the successive predictions will be right $1-\epsilon$ of the time, even though they are based on an accumulating dataset rather than on independent datasets. In addition to the model under which successive examples are sampled independently, other on-line compression models can also use conformal prediction. The widely used Gaussian linear model is one of these. This tutorial presents a self-contained account of the theory of conformal prediction and works through several numerical examples. A more comprehensive treatment of the topic is provided in "Algorithmic Learning in a Random World", by Vladimir Vovk, Alex Gammerman, and Glenn Shafer (Springer, 2005).Comment: 58 pages, 9 figure