Estimating the reproduction number of Ebola virus (EBOV) during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa

The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases generated by an infected index case in the absence and presence of control measures, i.e., the basic and effective reproduction number. In this study, I describe the EBOV epidemic using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and fit the model to the most recent reported data of infected cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The maximum likelihood estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.52) for Guinea, 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41-2.67) for Sierra Leone and 1.59 (95% CI: 1.57-1.60) for Liberia. The model indicates that in Guinea and Sierra Leone the effective reproduction number might have dropped to around unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates no decline in the effective reproduction number by end-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.Comment: Published version, PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2014 Sep

Hydraulic Actuator System for Rotor Control

In the last ten years, several different types of actuators were developed and fabricated for active control of rotors. A special hydraulic actuator system capable of generating high forces to rotating shafts via conventional bearings is addressed. The actively controlled hydraulic force actuator features an electrohydraulic servo valve which can produce amplitudes and forces at high frequencies necessary for influencing rotor vibrations. The mathematical description will be given in detail. The experimental results verify the theoretical model. Simulations already indicate the usefulness of this compact device for application to a real rotor system

Oscillatory secular modes: The thermal micropulses

Stars in the narrow mass range of about 2.5 and 3.5 solar masses can develop a thermally unstable He-burning shell during its ignition phase. We study, from the point of view secular stability theory, these so called thermal micropulses and we investigate their properties; the thermal pulses constitute a convenient conceptual laboratory to look thoroughly into the physical properties of a helium-burning shell during the whole thermally pulsing episode. Linear stability analyses were performed on a large number of 3 solar-mass star models at around the end of their core helium-burning and the beginning of the double-shell burning phase. The stellar models were not assumed to be in thermal equilibrium. The thermal mircopulses, and we conjecture all other thermal pulse episodes encountered by shell-burning stars, can be understood as the nonlinear finite-amplitude realization of an oscillatory secular instability that prevails during the whole thermal pulsing episode. Hence, the cyclic nature of the thermal pulses can be traced back to a linear instability concept.Comment: To be published - essentially footnote-free - in Astronomy & Astrophysic

A nonadiabatic oscillation study of DB white dwarfs

A self-consistent abundance diffusion treatment in the evolution of cooling white dwarfs permitted a study of the effect of elemental segregation in nonadiabatic, nonradial stability computations. In particular, mode trapping manifesting itself in cyclically varying period separations behaved differently from its appearance in the damping/excitation rates. Another aspect of the investigation concerned the effect of heavy-element traces in homogeneous DB white-dwarf envelopes on their pulsational instability domain. The stellar models are computed with the CGM convection approach; the study can therefore be considered as a test of its performance in nonradial stability analyses.Fil: Gautschy, Alfred. Ferrachstrasse. 1; SuizaFil: Althaus, Leandro Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Astrofísica La Plata. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas. Instituto de Astrofísica la Plata; Argentin

On the formation of hot DQ white dwarfs

We present the first full evolutionary calculations aimed at exploring the origin of hot DQ white dwarfs. These calculations consistently cover the whole evolution from the born-again stage to the white dwarf cooling track. Our calculations provide strong support to the diffusive/convective-mixing picture for the formation of hot DQs. We find that the hot DQ stage is a short-lived stage and that the range of effective temperatures where hot DQ stars are found can be accounted for by different masses of residual helium and/or different initial stellar masses. In the frame of this scenario, a correlation between the effective temperature and the surface carbon abundance in DQs should be expected, with the largest carbon abundances expected in the hottest DQs. From our calculations, we suggest that most of the hot DQs could be the cooler descendants of some PG1159 stars characterized by He-rich envelopes markedly smaller than those predicted by the standard theory of stellar evolution. At least for one hot DQ, the high-gravity white dwarf SDSS J142625.70+575218.4, an evolutionary link between this star and the massive PG1159 star H1504+65 is plausible.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures. To be published in The Astrophysical Journal Letter

Asteroseismology of the Kepler V777 Her variable white dwarf with fully evolutionary models

DBV stars are pulsating white dwarfs with atmospheres rich in He. Asteroseismology of DBV stars can provide valuable clues about the origin, structure and evolution of hydrogen-deficient white dwarfs, and may allow to study neutrino and axion physics. Recently, a new DBV star, KIC 8626021, has been discovered in the field of the \emph{Kepler} spacecraft. It is expected that further monitoring of this star in the next years will enable astronomers to determine its detailed asteroseismic profile. We perform an asteroseismological analysis of KIC 8626021 on the basis of fully evolutionary DB white-dwarf models. We employ a complete set of evolutionary DB white-dwarf structures covering a wide range of effective temperatures and stellar masses. They have been obtained on the basis of a complete treatment of the evolutionary history of progenitors stars. We compute g-mode adiabatic pulsation periods for this set of models and compare them with the pulsation properties exhibited by KIC 8626021. On the basis of the mean period spacing of the star, we found that the stellar mass should be substantially larger than spectroscopy indicates. From period-to-period fits we found an asteroseismological model characterized by an effective temperature much higher than the spectroscopic estimate. In agreement with a recent asteroseismological analysis of this star by other authors, we conclude that KIC 8626021 is located near the blue edge of the DBV instability strip, contrarily to spectroscopic predictions. We also conclude that the mass of KIC 8626021 should be substantially larger than thought.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables. To be published in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Outer boundary conditions for evolving cool white dwarfs

White dwarf evolution is essentially a gravothermal cooling process, which,for cool white dwarfs, sensitively depends on the treatment of the outer boundary conditions. We provide detailed outer boundary conditions appropriate for computing the evolution of cool white dwarfs employing detailed non-gray model atmospheres for pure H composition. We also explore the impact on the white dwarf cooling times of different assumptions for energy transfer in the atmosphere of cool white dwarfs. Detailed non-gray model atmospheres are computed taken into account non-ideal effects in the gas equation of state and chemical equilibrium, collision-induced absorption from molecules, and the Lyman alpha quasi-molecular opacity. Our results show that the use of detailed outer boundary conditions becomes relevant for effective temperatures lower than 5800 and 6100K for sequences with 0.60 and 0.90 M_sun, respectively. Detailed model atmospheres predict ages that are up to approx 10% shorter at log L/L_sun=-4 when compared with the ages derived using Eddington-like approximations at tau_Ross=2/3. We also analyze the effects of various assumptions and physical processes of relevance in the calculation of outer boundary conditions. In particular, we find that the Ly_alpha red wing absorption does not affect substantially the evolution of white dwarfs. White dwarf cooling timescales are sensitive to the surface boundary conditions for T_eff < 6000K. Interestingly enough, non-gray effects have little consequences on these cooling times at observable luminosities. In fact, collision-induced absorption processes, which significantly affect the spectra and colors of old white dwarfs with hydrogen-rich atmospheres, have not noticeable effects in their cooling rates, except throughout the Rosseland mean opacity.Comment: 6 pages, 9 figures, to be published in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Grids of white dwarf evolutionary models with masses from M= 0.1 to 1.2 Ms

We present detailed evolutionary calculations for carbon - oxygen - and helium - core white dwarf (WD) models with masses ranging from M= 0.1 to M= 1.2 solar masses and for metallicities Z= 0.001 and Z= 0. The sequences cover a wide range of hydrogen envelopes as well. We employed a detailed WD evolutionary code. In particular, the energy transport by convectcion is treated within the formalism of the full spectrum turbulence theory. The set of models presented here is very detailed and should be valuable for the interpretation of the observational data on low - mass WDs recently discovered in numerous binary configurations and also for the general problem of determining the theoretical luminosity function for WDs. In this context, we compare our cooling sequences with the observed WD luminosity function recently improved by Leggett, Ruiz and Bergeron (1998) and we obtain an age for the Galactic disc of approximately 8 Gyr. Finally, we applied the results of this paper to derive stellar masses of a sample of low - mass white dwarfs.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures; accepted for publication in MNRAS; replaced with minor corrections to tex